Cyclone frequency and sea surface temperature.

[Bored_Wombat]

The most refined risk analysis that I can think of is that performed by actuaries for the insurance industry.

Lloyd's news centre notes that a study published a couple of weeks ago that shows that the increase in sea surface temperature has caused an increase in cyclone activity. (In terms of the decade 1996-2005 40% of the increase in hurricane incidence is attributed to increase in sea surface temperature.)

The sensitivity has been about a 40% increase in cyclone incidence compared with the 1950-2000 average for 0.5°C of warming.

The study was for the north Atlantic, but Lloyd's notes that the results may well be similar for the rest of the world.

In its 360 risk project, Lloyd’s stated that as climate change causes temperatures to rise further, insurers should be prepared for increased frequency of extreme storms not just in the Atlantic, but around the world.

"The analysis does not attempt to identify whether greenhouse gas-induced warming contributed to the increase in water temperature." - However Lloyd's notes that: "Other studies, particularly those of James B. Elsner at Florida State University, have demonstrated that man-made emissions have led to sea temperature warming."

I assume premiums for hurricane damage are increasing as a consequence. Does anyone know how much?