China to challenge America?

[Scrat]

It would seem so.


Army of the future
In the past, some defense specialists insisted a Chinese attack on Taiwan would be a "million-man swim" across the Taiwan Strait because of the country's lack of troop-carrying ships.
"We left the million-man swim behind in about 1998, 1999," the senior Pentagon official said. "And in fact, what people are saying now, whether or not that construct was ever useful, is that it's a moot point, because in just amphibious lift alone, the Chinese are doubling or even quadrupling their capability on an annual basis."
Asked about a possible Chinese attack on Taiwan, the official put it bluntly: "In the '07-'08 time frame, a capability will be there that a year ago we would have said was very, very unlikely. We now assess that as being very likely to be there."
Air Force Gen. Paul V. Hester, head of the Pacific Air Forces, said the U.S. military has been watching China's military buildup but has found it difficult to penetrate Beijing's "veil" of secrecy over it.
While military modernization itself is not a major worry, "what does provide you a pause for interest and concern is the amount of modernization, the kind of modernization and the size of the modernization," he said during a recent breakfast meeting with reporters.
China is building capabilities such as aerial refueling and airborne warning and control aircraft that can be used for regional defense and long-range power projection, Gen. Hester said.
It also is developing a maneuverable re-entry vehicle, or MARV, for its nuclear warheads. The weapon is designed to counter U.S. strategic-missile defenses, according to officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity. The warhead would be used on China's new DF-31 long-range missiles and its new submarine missile, the JL-2.
Work being done on China's weapons and reconnaissance systems will give its military the capability to reach 1,000 miles into the sea, "which gives them the visibility on the movement of not only our airplanes in the air, but also our forces at sea," Gen. Hester said.
Beijing also has built a new tank for its large armed forces. It is known as the Type 99 and appears similar in design to Germany's Leopard 2 main battle tank. The tank is outfitted with new artillery, anti-aircraft and machine guns, advanced fire-control systems and improved engines.
The country's air power is growing through the purchase of new fighters from Russia, such as Su-30 fighter-bombers, as well as the development of its own fighter jets, such as the J-10.
Gen. Hester compared Chinese warplanes with those of the former Soviet Union, which were less capable than their U.S. counterparts, but still very deadly.
"They have great equipment. The fighters are very technologically advanced, and what we know about them gives us pause for concern against ours," he said.
Missiles also are a worry.
"It is their surface-to-air missiles, their [advanced] SAMs and their surface-to-surface missiles, and the precision, more importantly, of those surface-to-surface missiles that provide, obviously, the ability to pinpoint targets that we might have out in the region, or our friends and allies might have," Gen. Hester said.
The advances give the Chinese military "the ability ... to reach out and touch parts of the United States -- Guam, Hawaii and the mainland of the United States," he said.
To better deal with possible future conflicts in Asia, the Pentagon is modernizing U.S. military facilities on the Western Pacific island of Guam and planning to move more forces there.
The Air Force will regularly rotate Air Expeditionary Force units to Guam and also will station the new long-range unmanned aerial vehicle known as Global Hawk on the island, he said.
It also has stationed B-2 stealth bombers on Guam temporarily and is expected to deploy B-1 bombers there, in addition to the B-52s now deployed there, Gen. Hester said.

Projecting power
China's rulers have adopted what is known as the "two-island chain" strategy of extending control over large areas of the Pacific, covering inner and outer chains of islands stretching from Japan to Indonesia.
"Clearly, they are still influenced by this first and second island chain," the intelligence official said.
The official said China's buildup goes beyond what would be needed to fight a war against Taiwan.
The conclusion of this official is that China wants a "blue-water" navy capable of projecting power far beyond the two island chains.
"If you look at the technical capabilities of the weapons platforms that they're fielding, the sea-keeping capabilities, the size, sensors and weapons fit, this capability transcends the baseline that is required to deal with a Taiwan situation militarily," the intelligence official said.
"So they are positioned then, if [Taiwan is] resolved one way or the other, to really become a regional military power as well."
The dispatch of a Han-class submarine late last year to waters near Guam, Taiwan and Japan was an indication of the Chinese military's drive to expand its oceangoing capabilities, the officials said. The submarine surfaced in Japanese waters, triggering an emergency deployment of Japan's naval forces.
Beijing later issued an apology for the incursion, but the political damage was done. Within months, Japan began adopting a tougher political posture toward China in its defense policies and public statements. A recent Japanese government defense report called China a strategic national security concern. It was the first time China was named specifically in a Japanese defense report.

Energy supply a factor
For China, Taiwan is not the only issue behind the buildup of military forces. Beijing also is facing a major energy shortage that, according to one Pentagon study, could lead it to use military force to seize territory with oil and gas resources.
The report produced for the Office of Net Assessment, which conducts assessments of future threats, was made public in January and warned that China's need for oil, gas and other energy resources is driving the country toward becoming an expansionist power.
China "is looking not only to build a blue-water navy to control the sea lanes [from the Middle East], but also to develop undersea mines and missile capabilities to deter the potential disruption of its energy supplies from potential threats, including the U.S. Navy, especially in the case of a conflict with Taiwan," the report said.
The report said China believes the United States already controls the sea routes from the oil-rich Persian Gulf through the Malacca Strait. Chinese President Hu Jintao has called this strategic vulnerability to disrupted energy supplies Beijing's "Malacca Dilemma."
To prevent any disruption, China has adopted a "string of pearls" strategy that calls for both offensive and defensive measures stretching along the oil-shipment sea lanes from China's coast to the Middle East.
The "pearls" include the Chinese-financed seaport being built at Gwadar, on the coast of western Pakistan, and commercial and military efforts to establish bases or diplomatic ties in Bangladesh, Burma, Cambodia, Thailand and disputed islands in the South China Sea.
The report stated that China's ability to use these pearls for a "credible" military action is not certain.
Pentagon intelligence officials, however, say the rapid Chinese naval buildup includes the capability to project power to these sea lanes in the future.
"They are not doing a lot of surface patrols or any other kind of security evolutions that far afield," the intelligence official said. "There's no evidence of [Chinese military basing there] yet, but we do need to keep an eye toward that expansion."
The report also highlighted the vulnerability of China's oil and gas infrastructure to a crippling U.S. attack.
"The U.S. military could severely cripple Chinese resistance [during a conflict over Taiwan] by blocking its energy supply, whereas the [People's Liberation Army navy] poses little threat to United States' energy security," it said.
China views the United States as "a potential threat because of its military superiority, its willingness to disrupt China's energy imports, its perceived encirclement of China and its disposition toward manipulating international politics," the report said.

'Mercantilist measures'
The report stated that China will resort "to extreme, offensive and mercantilist measures when other strategies fail, to mitigate its vulnerabilities, such as seizing control of energy resources in neighboring states."
U.S. officials have said two likely targets for China are the Russian Far East, which has vast oil and gas deposits, and Southeast Asia, which also has oil and gas resources.
Michael Pillsbury, a former Pentagon official and specialist on China's military, said the internal U.S. government debate on the issue and excessive Chinese secrecy about its military buildup "has cost us 10 years to figure out what to do"
"Everybody is starting to acknowledge the hard facts," Mr. Pillsbury said. "The China military buildup has been accelerating since 1999. As the buildup has gotten worse, China is trying hard to mask it."
Richard Fisher, vice president of the International Assessment and Strategy Center, said that in 10 years, the Chinese army has shifted from a defensive force to an advanced military soon capable of operations ranging from space warfare to global non-nuclear cruise-missile strikes.
"Let's all wake up. The post-Cold War peace is over," Mr. Fisher said. "We are now in an arms race with a new superpower whose goal is to contain and overtake the United States."

[spot]

May I delicately hint at an answer to this? If a country finds that it's being surrounded by offensive airstrips and jump-off bases, manned and equipped by a country that shares no common border, it might tend to put more of its GNP into militarizing.

I wonder who's been rattling their cage?

[koan]

Sounds like a global threat. I think you should carpet bomb them.

[TW2005]

Originally Posted by Scrat

"Let's all wake up. The post-Cold War peace is over," Mr. Fisher said. "We are now in an arms race with a new superpower whose goal is to contain and overtake the United States."

I predict it will happen by the year 2011.

[capt_buzzard]

Originally Posted by TW2005

I predict it will happen by the year 2011.

No no. I'd bet it will be before 2010

[Clint]

I pray it never happens. This has a real potential for ugly. People will long for the good old days in Iraq.

[TW2005]

The US would never stand up to a bully it's own size, or larger for that matter.

[Clint]

Originally Posted by TW2005

The US would never stand up to a bully it's own size, or larger for that matter.

My natural reaction to what you say is to come out fighting. Sadly, I fear you are right. Too many people would think that if we just ignore it, it will go away and we will be able to go on living the “good life”. I really never thought I would see the day that I would say something like this.

[Scrat]

I pray it never happens. This has a real potential for ugly. People will long for the good old days in Iraq.

I can't see a full scale war (world war) happening. I strongly suspect there may be "incidents" though.

Why?

There is not only China and America involved here. There is also India, Japan, Vietnam, Philipines, Australia, Russia, Taiwan and Polynesia.

Russia will not be attacked by China. The Russian far east is very sparsely populated and it is vast. Such a would be much like Germany attacking Russia in WWII except for the fact that it would peter out very quickly and leave the Chinese army wallowing on the steppe at the mercy of Russian retaliation. The retaliation would possibly be nuclear in nature not only the spearheads but their support bases also. Russia would suffer virtually no consequences for this. Chinas retaliation in a nuclear conflict would be pointless as the targets they would need to hit would be disbursed at the outbreak of war. Russia can absorb a tremendous amount of punishment and still function as we have seen.

War with Russia is out. Russia attacking China? Simply not powerful enough. Defence is Russias ace here and largely has China by the shorthairs in the energy department.

India doesn't have the means with an Army to expand abroad but she is developing a very powerful Navy and Airforce. Japan and Taiwan both have powerful navies/airforces as does Australia and collectively the island nations.

I believe China is effectively bottled up. No amount of manpower or seapower is going to be enough to let her build an empire on the pond like the Japanese tried.

I do think she will try economic blackmail though and that is where things will happen.

Something like the opium wars which brings me to this.

May I delicately hint at an answer to this? If a country finds that it's being surrounded by offensive airstrips and jump-off bases, manned and equipped by a country that shares no common border, it might tend to put more of its GNP into militarizing.

I wonder who's been rattling their cage?

I think that the west will also try blackmail of some kind. Just what I don't know but it may certainly lead to conflict and I believe that is what China is preparing for.

Ancient Chinese proverb say.

Why do men have nipples? Just in case.

[gmc]

posted by scrat

I do think she will try economic blackmail though and that is where things will happen.

Something like the opium wars which brings me to this.

Bad analogy, with the opium wars china was up against industrial nations with a major technoligical advantage they couldn't match. Medeival armies against cannon and rifles. That's not the case any more. On a like for like basis their armed forces are as good as any in the world. Looks like they have set out to match the west in arms so they can't be bullied by a militarily superior nation with an everwhelming advantage. The gulf war and the devastating effecy of western arms must have come as shock. From their perspective I think they are looking at an increasingly aggressive US and are getting ready just in case.

The romans had a saying. "If you would live in peace be ready for war" Except they said it in latin.