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Thread: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

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    Proudly humble LarsMac's Avatar
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    Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    The news out of China lately is that a new bug is on the horizon.
    Yesterday in the news 6 people were reported to have died. Today, it is up to 17.
    Yesterday it was pretty much contained, and today it has affected four other countries.

    An interesting item, the suspected point of origin is a seafood market where "illegal wild animal" transactions took place. I can't even imagine what that means.

    Apparently half of the current confirmed cases are health care workers who came in contact with sick individuals.

    References in the news mention the SARS epidemic of a few years back.

    While this particular outbreak may not be the end of the world, it occurs to me that eventually, we could very likely see just such an event become the final doom of mankind on the planet.

    One other note:
    President Donald Trump said the situation was "totally under control"
    Now, I'm REALLY worried.

    I decided to ad the tracking link here:

    Wuhan Coronavirus as of 2020/01/29
    Last edited by LarsMac; 02-11-2020 at 07:20 PM.
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    Supporting Member spot's Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    I'm quite impressed at the response in China, they do seem to be open this time round.

    And the British managed to test 14 contenders and signed them all unaffected. I'm not sure we'll get through the weekend that way though.
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    Senior Member Bryn Mawr's Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    The British government are also saying that the danger is low as we are in a good place to control any outbreak.

    If it weren’t so serious it would be laughable.

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    Senior Member Saint_'s Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    Unfortunately, the serious outbreak seems to be right around the corner if history is correct...

    Consider the case of Captain Maclear’s rat. This interesting rodent inhabited Christmas Island, a small bit of tropical verdure some two hundred miles south of Java…

    Yet such was the luxuriance of the tropical growth that the rats had not attained such numbers as to provide competition among members of the species. The individual rats were extremely well-nourished, and even unduly fat.

    In 1903 some new disease sprang up. Because of their crowding and also probably because of the softened condition of the individuals, the rats proved universally susceptible, and soon were dying by thousands. In spite of great numbers, in spite of an abundant supply of food, in spite of a very rapid breeding rate, the species is extinct.
    - George R. Stewart. "Earth Abides"

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    Proudly humble LarsMac's Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    the latest on this is that it seems this new Coronavirus is transmittable before symptoms express.
    That means that shortly after exposure, and long before anyone knows they're sick, they are wandering about, passing through checkpoints and preparing to share their good fortune with the world in general.

    I don't know that this is going to be a major "plague" event, necessarily, but it will prove to be a major PIA for travelers for months to come.

    I share home with several people who have marginal - Compromised Immune systems, so I plan to limit my exposure to other humans for the foreseeable future.
    "Learn from the mistakes of others---you can never live long enough to make them all yourself."
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    Supporting Member spot's Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    Quote Originally Posted by LarsMac View Post
    I don't know that this is going to be a major "plague" event, necessarily, but it will prove to be a major PIA for travelers for months to come.
    These last couple of days I've started to think that perhaps it might. That early infectious phase is particularly nasty. I'm not convinced it's stoppable unless a mass precautionary vaccine comes on stream. I'll queue up for that one when summer arrives.

    "UK government urged to reassure public that NHS is ready for cases within days" is ominously improbable too.

    Prof Neil Ferguson, a public health expert at Imperial College, said his “best guess” was that there were 100,000 affected by the virus even though there are only 2,000 confirmed cases so far, mostly in the city of Wuhan in China where the virus first appeared.

    “Sooner or later we will get a case,” he said. “There are very large numbers of Chinese tourists across Europe right now. Unless the Chinese manage to control this, and I’m sceptical about whether that is possible, we will get cases here.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/science/...y-experts-warn
    Nullius in verba|||||||||||
    Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game!

    The watch of your vision has become reasonable today.

    England's troubles will increase until the bishops open Joanna Southcott's box.
    It’s normal. You must provoke. You must insult the belief of all monotheists. You must make fun of the belief of all monotheists.
    From the upper tier of the Leppings Lane End of the Hillsborough Stadium, I watched the events of that day unfold with horror.
    When the flowers want to oxygen and nutrition, or you’re a wedding or party planner, I will help you too much.
    Write that word in the blood

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    Proudly humble LarsMac's Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    several countries are talking about extracting their citizens from Wuhan.
    Not that is such a good idea. They have likely already been exposed, and should probably be treated there, in my opinion.
    "Learn from the mistakes of others---you can never live long enough to make them all yourself."
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    Senior Member Bryn Mawr's Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    Quote Originally Posted by LarsMac View Post
    several countries are talking about extracting their citizens from Wuhan.
    Not that is such a good idea. They have likely already been exposed, and should probably be treated there, in my opinion.
    Totally agree, the Brit ex-pats in Wutan are complaining like mad that they’ve not been brought home but in isolation there or here they cannot be allowed out to infect the public and why endanger the medical and air crew to move them from isolation in their homes there to isolation in a hospital here.

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    Supporting Member tabby's Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    I saw on our local news that there are 3 people in Virginia recently returned from Wuhan that have been tested for the virus. Luckily, two tested negative and one doesn't have the results back yet. I'm sure there are more out there that probably should be tested but unless it becomes mandatory a lot of people won't volunteer. And even then some will still lay low.

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    Proudly humble LarsMac's Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

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    So, about a month on, here is a map of the current locations of this bug. Be sure to look at the numbers though, The graphic could be a little intimidating. As a percentage of population, it is still minimal. OF course, if you look at the rate of spread, it might give reason for concern. .. .. I was planning a trip to Japan and China, but think I might just stay home for a while.

    Wuhan Coronavirus as of 2020/01/29
    "Learn from the mistakes of others---you can never live long enough to make them all yourself."
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