Make these ads go away.
+ Reply to Thread
Page 1 of 2 1 2 LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 19

Thread: The 2014 Grand National

  1. #1
    Banned
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    WEST SUSSEX, ENGLAND
    Posts
    31,529
    Local Date
    01-23-2020
    Local Time
    04:44 AM

    The 2014 Grand National

    Here we go again folks... The greatest sporting spectacle on earth. Tis a wonderous sight watching 40 chasers hurtling over the first fence.

    I'm not going to give you my final 5 shortlist until the final declarations are In around the beginning of April but already, some Interesting entrants In the first stage anti-post. However, at this stage, I can rule out 30 or so of them right now.

    So, once again, I'm looking for an Irish bred and trained horse between the age of 9 and 12 years old. A horse who Is used to running In large fields of over or at least 16 runners.
    He must have at least one win over 3 miles, have had at least one outing this season and have Ideally a no fall, no unseat, no pulled up and no refused fence record.... although I am willing to over-look one fall... every horse has a blip In his career.

    What I can say this early on, Is there are two horses I have been waiting for news on as to their recovery following being out last season due to Injury.

    So at this stage I am looking very seriously at Tim Vaughan's BESHABAR
    Nicky Henderson's SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM
    And Rebecca Curtis's TEAFORTHREE


    I may just risk taking anti-post now with Teaforthree at 20/1
    Beshabar 33/1
    Shakalakaboomboom 66/1

  2. #2
    Senior Member Wolverine's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    Comicbook Rehab
    Posts
    4,953
    Local Date
    01-22-2020
    Local Time
    10:44 PM

    Re: The 2014 Grand National

    got my hopes up...
    thought Buick was bringing back one of the most awesome cars ever produced
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails Click image for larger version

Name:	GNX.jpg
Views:	107
Size:	5.5 KB
ID:	39880  

    Get your mind out of the gutter - it's blocking my view
    Mind like a steel trap - Rusty and Illegal in 37 states.

  3. #3
    Banned
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    WEST SUSSEX, ENGLAND
    Posts
    31,529
    Local Date
    01-23-2020
    Local Time
    04:44 AM

    Re: The 2014 Grand National

    Quote Originally Posted by Wolverine View Post
    got my hopes up...
    thought Buick was bringing back one of the most awesome cars ever produced
    Nope, you've lost me

  4. #4
    Banned
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    WEST SUSSEX, ENGLAND
    Posts
    31,529
    Local Date
    01-23-2020
    Local Time
    04:44 AM

    Re: The 2014 Grand National

    Last years winner Auroras Encore Is out of the race after breaking a leg at Doncaster Saturday.

    The good news Is, the leg has been pinned and he has now been retired. He'll spend the rest of his days with trainer and her husband, Harvey Smith ( he of two finger salute).

  5. #5
    Banned
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    WEST SUSSEX, ENGLAND
    Posts
    31,529
    Local Date
    01-23-2020
    Local Time
    04:44 AM

    Re: The 2014 Grand National

    In the past, I have found It relatively easy to get at least two In the first four, even the winner because until last year, the National was all about jumping.
    With last years amendments to the fences those who didn't have a cat In hell's chance of even getting round the course, now need serious consideration. The emphasis on jumping ability has now switched to cruising speed and stamina given the course Is now a damn sight easier for a horse to get round and finish. However, I still firmly believe that experience will play a large part In the result.
    This Is a reason I am of the mind that Beshabar and Shakalakaboomboom are good each way punts here.

    Yet, one of the most vital Issue's as always, Is the weights, and I can take a serious look when these are declared Tuesday. I predict though that as my reccomendations have been out of action for some time, they will be the lower of the ratings which Is excellent for this race.

    With the amendments, two horses who could benefit here are Own His Own who wan a blinder winning The Thyestes Chase and The Hennessy Winner Triolo D’Alene who could score even off a top weight...

    We'll see Tuesday

    The amendments to the course last year does mean we are seeing far more trainers risk their big guns and this year has seen record entries.

  6. #6
    Banned
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    WEST SUSSEX, ENGLAND
    Posts
    31,529
    Local Date
    01-23-2020
    Local Time
    04:44 AM

    Re: The 2014 Grand National

    Despite my repeating myself from elsewhere, I will continue with the Info here as I do know some you like to have a flutter on the Grand National.

    The weights have been declared and I can now take a serious look at the contenders.... a few at a time due to time restraints here.

    French horses are out. They are typically trained under 3 miles over lower fences. French horses statistically make more blunders at fences than other horses. You'll hear commentators say a French horse has ' brushed his way through the top' or ' banked a fence ( landed on top of It ) and this Is why. The French also just don't breed stamina Into their stock unlike by comparison the Irish by a sire such as ' Presenting' The only French horse to win the Grand National was Mon Mome In 2009 who was a one off. You have to go back a century to find the last before that. Neptune Collognes was UK trained by Paul Nichol's and It takes a good trainer to rid a horse of the ' French Factor',

    So first up:

    Tidal Bay heads the weights at 11 stone 10 lb. Statistically, horses winning over 11 stone 5 lbs are like hens teeth. Neptune Collognes won under 11 stone 6 lb In 2012, Don't Push It In 2010 under 11 stone 5 lb but prior you have to go back to the 1970's and to Red Rum.
    If he pulls this off, It'll be the race of his life under this weight. Then there's the age factor. Statistically, teenagers have not fared well In this race and last year even with the amendments to the fences, out of the first six, not one was aged under 9 years old, and you have to go back 88 years to find the last winner over 12 years old. Tidal Bay now 13 years old, I believe will struggle to keep up with the 9-11 year olds who are In their prime.
    Having said that, this horse has a massive fan base. The horse Is nothing short of a warrior and out of 42 starts, he claims 15 wins and 17 places. He's the epitome of the punters sure bet. He still ticks boxes statistically. A no fall record, Irish, has had an outing this season, coming a respectable 2 nd In the Irish Hennessy this month under 11 stone 10 lbs. He has the Aintree factor having run the course In his career and Is a seasoned Cheltenham stayer. Bags of stamina and hugely popular In racing circles with many fans willing the boy to pull It off, Including me.... I believe he'll stay the distance and may just nab a place, certainly In the top 10...... Don't forget folks, a long price place at a quarter of the odds Is better than a short priced loser.... Tidal Bay currently at 16/1 second favourite.... the bookies know a punters mate when they see him.

    Long Run...11 stone 9 lbs What can I say ? I think this Is a massive mistake to enter this horse. Again, Lennie has a huge fan base but I believe the horse has been on the decline for some time. An awful performance at Wetherby last year, almost falling although great recovery. Totally outclassed In the Betfair Chase In November and couldn't even complete the course at Kempton In the King George In December unseating Waley-Cohen at the last but again, totally outpaced and tired In the last mile over 3 miles. I'll hazzard a guess that the Waley-Cohens have retirement In mind but hope to replicate Nichol's decision to throw Neptune Collognes at the biggest event In the hope he'd go out In a blaze of glory. He Is not used to running In large fields and having young Inexperienced horses falling around him and Sam Waley-Cohen an amateur jockey riding his pet, I don't believe has the experience to read the course full of 40 runners. ...25/1

    Hunt Ball ( Hunty ) 11 stone 7 lbs. I'm not alone when we believed the biggest mistake Anthony Knott made was to sell Hunty to Equine Atlantic and a career In the USA. Again, the horse has a massive fan base Including me. After failing to Impress In the States although he did run a respectable 9th In the USA Grand National equivilent, the decision was made to bring him back to the UK last year and to Nicky Henderson's yard. He's just come out of quarantine and Is due for his first outing at Kelso this weekend as a prep race. The weight Is against him here but ticks many of the required boxes. 9 years old, Irish, no fall record, 18 starts, 9 wins, 5 places.travels well on good and heavy going, a seasoned Cheltenham stayer winning In March 2012 under 12 stone and has run In fields of 20 runners. He gets a tick from me for the first stage selections.....66/1 Be prepared for this to be cut shorter after his outing at the weekend..Irrelevent of winning, If he stays and keeps up the pace, the odds will shorten.

    My gamble paid off... took 66/1 for anti-post as I said In my OP..... Shakalakaboomboom now cut to 25/1

    Paddy Power pay for 5 places at one quarter of the odds.

  7. #7
    Banned
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    WEST SUSSEX, ENGLAND
    Posts
    31,529
    Local Date
    01-23-2020
    Local Time
    04:44 AM

    Re: The 2014 Grand National

    Roi Du Mee 9 stone 11 lb... This horse Impressed me greatly when winning at Down Royal In November under 11 stone 10 lb but since then he was pulled up In The Betfair and finished last In his last outing at Leopardstown... A French horse that I rule out. I don't think he can stay the 4 miles. A Thumbs down.

    TRIOLO D’ALENE ... 11 stone 6 lbs..... Winner of The Hennessy Gold Cuo.... French and 7 years old... This Is going to rule him out for me as the winner but not for a place. He ticks some boxes, used to running In fields of 20 horses, has champion jockey Barry Garaghty on board, trained by Nicky Hnederson, 10 starts, 4 wins, 3 places, has had an outing this season winning over 3 miles. A candidate for last selections.

    Rocky Creek 11 stone 5 lbs...Offically 8 years old now but will be 9 years old come March... Ticks a lot boxes, Irish, a no fall and no P/U record. has had an outing this season In January coming 2nd to The Giant Bolster, Trained by Paul Nichol's, 10 starts, 4 wins, 5 places, a consistent stayer over 3 miles and has The Aintree factor coming 3rd to Dynaste.... a thumbs up for a winning candidate,

  8. #8
    Banned
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    WEST SUSSEX, ENGLAND
    Posts
    31,529
    Local Date
    01-23-2020
    Local Time
    04:44 AM

    Re: The 2014 Grand National

    Some trials today for The Grand National.

    First of all.... sack the commentator who called Kauto Stone, Kauto Star 4 times today... Muppet !!! Kauto Star's baby brother wouldn't have been able to beat Captain Chris today and for me, a dissappointing trial. Led from the front. A horse who pulls way too hard and difficult to manage. As of today, I feel he'll do exactly the same In the National. Lead from the front and tire rapidly around the 2 and a half mile mark.

    Hunt Ball Hunty first outing since returning from the USA.... a respectable 3rd and although I don't believe he could have beaten Captain Chris today, I do believe that had the race been another half mile, he would have closed the gap. It does give him a nice little warm up and outing before the National. Jumped well and stayed the distance. Bookies keep him at 40/1

    Teaforthree Although beaten Into 2nd today, he ran a blinding race..... he now goes In as 14/1 clear favourite and will have benefited greatly from this warm up.

    Across The Bay was P/U today... he gets a thumbs down for the National from me.

  9. #9
    Banned
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    WEST SUSSEX, ENGLAND
    Posts
    31,529
    Local Date
    01-23-2020
    Local Time
    04:44 AM

    Re: The 2014 Grand National

    Katenko... I like this horse a lot and have backed him In the past. However, French, 8 years old and too Inexperienced with just 8 starts. A thumbs down.

    Boston Bob 11 stone 3 lb...Another horse I like and ticks some boxes. Irish, 9 years old, seasoned Cheltenham runner, 12 starts, 7 wins, 2 places... howeverm fell twice last season.... maybe a wild card here for a place,

    On His Own 11 stone 3 lb... Irish, 10 years old... but I don't trust his record. 17 starts, 7 wins, no places, 2 falls, a BD and a P/U....too unpredictable for me although used to running In large fields... a thumbs down

    Bog Warrior 11 stone 2lb.... Irish, 10 years old, 14 starts, 8 wins, 1 place. Unseated rider last time out. 3 falls.... a thumbs down

  10. #10
    Banned
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    WEST SUSSEX, ENGLAND
    Posts
    31,529
    Local Date
    01-23-2020
    Local Time
    04:44 AM

    Re: The 2014 Grand National

    Register to remove this ad.
    As Teaforthree heads the market as favourite, some further stats to consider.

    Since 1970 there has only been 9 winners at odds under 10/1

    On 30 occassions, since 1970, the winner has been 16/1

    Only 5 female jockeys have managed to finish the course and no female jockey has ever won.

    You have to go back to 1951 to find the last mar to win the GN

    Only 3 Greys have won the GN

    Statiscally this puts Teaforthree In all the boxes.

    Irish, 10 years old, has The Aintree factor coming 3rd last year, within the weights, 10 stone 12 lb experienced with 20 starts, has had an outing this season coming second Saturday. Has run In fields of 40 runners, seasoned Cheltenham stayer, runs well on good/soft and heavy going. A no fall record throughout his career.

    Both thumbs up from me.

    If you're lucky enough to get this boy In a work syndicate or lottery, he'll attack those fences like the lion that he Is and he'll run his heart out for you. A warrior,

+ Reply to Thread
Page 1 of 2 1 2 LastLast

Similar Threads

  1. Anyone bet on the Grand National today?
    By Pinky in forum General Chit Chat
    Replies: 19
    Last Post: 04-11-2016, 05:14 AM
  2. New changes to the Grand National but not the right ones.....
    By Oscar Namechange in forum Current Events
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 09-20-2012, 05:37 AM
  3. The Grand National 2012
    By Oscar Namechange in forum Sports
    Replies: 52
    Last Post: 04-18-2012, 10:15 AM
  4. the grand national
    By the grumps in forum Sports
    Replies: 7
    Last Post: 04-13-2011, 03:54 PM
  5. Tomorrow's Grand National
    By Oscar Namechange in forum General Chit Chat
    Replies: 19
    Last Post: 04-04-2009, 02:43 PM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts