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Thread: Planning for the next pandemic

  1. #11
    Senior Member Bryn Mawr's Avatar
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    Re: Planning for the next pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by FourPart View Post
    That's because it's suspected that it may have been around longer than realised - just that we didn't realise that it was anything other than Seasonal Flu, the vast majority of which cases never get reported. If this is the case, then I suspect this may be what I had over Christmas as the symptoms match exactly what is said of C19. Dry cough, difficulty in breathing, etc.

    I'm in 2 minds about the Lockdown principle. I see the logic behind it, but other countries which have had the full Lockdowns (Italy, Spain, etc) are also the countries with the highest Death Toll, so the effectiveness of this protocol does leave itself open to be qestioned.
    If yours was C19 then you are one of the blessed who can save the country - immune and able to work :-)

    As to lockdown, try reversing it - the countries that have tried it are those that were in-extremis in the first place and their death toll might have been far worse without.

    To my mind we cannot stop it at this stage and extending it just increases the damage to the country but if we totally overwhelm the NHS then the death toll will go through the roof so we must make the effort to slow it.

    That is dependant, however, on the profile of the deaths. I have seen a suggestion that 98.5% of those who’ve died have serious underlying health problems. That, surely, opens the possibility of strict isolation for the few and allow the rest to fall ill and get the damned disease out of the way once and for all, otherwise we will be suffering for years with a population with limited immunity.

  2. #12
    Proudly humble LarsMac's Avatar
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    Re: Planning for the next pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by FourPart View Post
    That's because it's suspected that it may have been around longer than realised - just that we didn't realise that it was anything other than Seasonal Flu, the vast majority of which cases never get reported. If this is the case, then I suspect this may be what I had over Christmas as the symptoms match exactly what is said of C19. Dry cough, difficulty in breathing, etc.

    I'm in 2 minds about the Lockdown principle. I see the logic behind it, but other countries which have had the full Lockdowns (Italy, Spain, etc) are also the countries with the highest Death Toll, so the effectiveness of this protocol does leave itself open to be qestioned.
    South Korea's actions seem to have been fairly effective, as was China's, once they caught on and initiated it.

    Italy's lockdown was obviously too little, too late, as it seems, was Spain's

    It might useful to explain how a few people in Britain may have experienced this thing a month before anyone knew anything about it, even in China.
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  3. #13
    Proudly humble LarsMac's Avatar
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    Re: Planning for the next pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by Bryn Mawr View Post
    If yours was C19 then you are one of the blessed who can save the country - immune and able to work :-)

    As to lockdown, try reversing it - the countries that have tried it are those that were in-extremis in the first place and their death toll might have been far worse without.

    To my mind we cannot stop it at this stage and extending it just increases the damage to the country but if we totally overwhelm the NHS then the death toll will go through the roof so we must make the effort to slow it.

    That is dependant, however, on the profile of the deaths. I have seen a suggestion that 98.5% of those who’ve died have serious underlying health problems. That, surely, opens the possibility of strict isolation for the few and allow the rest to fall ill and get the damned disease out of the way once and for all, otherwise we will be suffering for years with a population with limited immunity.
    I am not sure we have data yet to show that people who have been infected and survived are either now immune, or are now not infectious.
    There is a assumption that this is so, based on experience with many other infectious diseases, but we have very little data, so far, to support that with this bug.
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  4. #14
    Senior Member Bryn Mawr's Avatar
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    Re: Planning for the next pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by LarsMac View Post
    I am not sure we have data yet to show that people who have been infected and survived are either now immune, or are now not infectious.
    There is a assumption that this is so, based on experience with many other infectious diseases, but we have very little data, so far, to support that with this bug.
    The second should be easy enough to check, test for antibodies and then for the virus and if you have the one without the other then safe.

    The Chinese should be able to tell us the answer to the first, have any of the seventy thousand plus recovered patients come through the system a second time? If not the the probability is the there is immunity.

  5. #15
    Proudly humble LarsMac's Avatar
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    Re: Planning for the next pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by Bryn Mawr View Post
    The second should be easy enough to check, test for antibodies and then for the virus and if you have the one without the other then safe.

    The Chinese should be able to tell us the answer to the first, have any of the seventy thousand plus recovered patients come through the system a second time? If not the the probability is the there is immunity.
    Hopefully, by now, the Chinese are in the midst of figuring this out.
    With only 80 some thousand reported cases, after several months, obviously something they have been doing is working, and they now have time to figure out the details.
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  6. #16
    Senior Member magentaflame's Avatar
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    Re: Planning for the next pandemic

    The death rate of the 'known' cases so far is at below 3% worldwide.
    I think making the internet more available worldwide.
    Getting rid of money and only having cards.
    limit the travel of human beings across the world.
    stop building high rise buildings

  7. #17
    Proudly humble LarsMac's Avatar
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    Re: Planning for the next pandemic

    Here in the States, it seems that each state, and each city must learn the lessons on their own, never picking up what the other communities have initiated and found to work.
    And they do as little as possible until the count of infections sneaks up on them.
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  8. #18
    Supporting Member spot's Avatar
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    Re: Planning for the next pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by LarsMac View Post
    Here in the States, it seems that each state, and each city must learn the lessons on their own, never picking up what the other communities have initiated and found to work.
    And they do as little as possible until the count of infections sneaks up on them.
    We're all watching for a convincing downturn in the rate of transmission in America, it's bound to happen.
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  9. #19
    Proudly humble LarsMac's Avatar
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    Re: Planning for the next pandemic

    Quote Originally Posted by spot View Post
    We're all watching for a convincing downturn in the rate of transmission in America, it's bound to happen.
    May. I think. It seems to just be getting up a head of steam, here.
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  10. #20
    Senior Member magentaflame's Avatar
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    Re: Planning for the next pandemic

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