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Thread: Some big changes are coming.

  1. #1

    Some big changes are coming.

    China and Russia begin this year to build their economic union along with many other peoples on the Eurasian continent. Russia is standing up to the Ukrainian government, they will fall in line.

    Poland is seeing who is the big dog on the block and it is not NATO and America.

    Follow the links.

  2. #2

    Re: Some big changes are coming.

    It seems things are coming to a head in this department. You're with us or you're against us.

    Published: January 2, 2006
    MOSCOW, Jan. 1 - Russia cut off the natural gas intended for Ukraine on Sunday as talks over pricing and transit terms unraveled into a bald political conflict that carried consequences for Ukraine's recovering economy and possibly for gas supplies to Western Europe.

    Politics and Gas Prices The dispute comes a year after the Orange Revolution brought a pro-Western government to power in Ukraine. It ends a decade of post-Soviet subsidies in the form of cheap energy that allowed Russia to retain some influence over the former Soviet republics.

    Choking off the westbound pipes is a striking gamble by Russia, one likely to send political and economic ripples westward in the months ahead. Russia is positioning itself to become an energy-supplying nation capable of easing dependency on Middle Eastern oil in Western Europe and even in the United States.

    Gazprom, the Russian energy giant, 51 percent of which is owned by the state, provides about a quarter of Western Europe's natural gas. Under a system begun in the Soviet era, 80 percent of Russia's exports to Europe have passed through Ukraine. Gazprom said it had reduced the flow to equal the volumes it agreed to provide to Western countries, minus what the company provides for the Ukrainian domestic market.

    On the same day it throttled back its gas to Ukraine, Russia assumed the chairmanship of the Group of 8, the club for the world's large developed economies, promising to push the theme of "energy security."

    Sunday's early-winter cut in gas supplies to Ukraine came as an unsettling reminder that promises of energy exports are not Russia's only method of using oil and gas to further its foreign policy goals - it can also turn off the valve of energy exports.

    The election of Viktor A. Yushchenko as Ukraine's president last winter pulled the former Soviet country from Russia's sphere of influence. A gas shortage this winter could discredit him and weaken his party, with parliamentary elections coming up in March.

    Tellingly, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia was personally involved in the negotiations. It was he, rather than company officials, who made the final offer of a grace period on Saturday.

    A jump in Russia's utility bill to Ukraine is at the heart of the current conflict. Russia is seeking to charge $220 to $230 per 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas, up from $50. Ukraine's economy has depended on buying cheap energy from Russia, which provides about a third of its natural gas supply.

    The 11th-hour effort to head off the shutdown failed. On Sunday, Ukraine's natural gas distributing company, Naftogaz, said it had faxed a draft contract to Russia shortly after 11 p.m. Saturday - agreeing to terms laid out earlier that evening by Mr. Putin, the company said in a statement.

    Mr. Putin had suggested a 3-month grace period if Ukraine would agree to pay the higher prices thereafter. Gazprom, however, said Sunday the faxed reply had fallen short of demands.

    "We were prepared to come to terms with the Ukrainian people and help maintain comfortable conditions for them during the winter, the most crucial season from the point of view of energy supplies," Gazprom's chief spokesman, Sergei V. Kupriyanov, said on Russian television. "Our proposals were turned down."

    At around 10 a.m. on Sunday, Gazprom began cutting the pressure on pipelines at the border with Ukraine, and the effect on the Ukrainian web of pipelines was felt later in the day.

    "Russia counts on Ukraine to guarantee the stable supply of Russian gas to European countries in accordance with international obligations fixed in the European Energy Charter," a statement from the Interior Ministry said.

    The effects were starting to be felt in Europe on Sunday night. The Hungarian natural gas wholesaler, MOL, said that deliveries from the affected pipeline were down more than 25 percent, according to Reuters, which added that in Poland, supplies dwindled 14 percent.

    Polish officials said reserves were adequate for now, and the Hungarian company asked big gas consumers to switch to oil where possible.

    Gazprom reduced the pressure in the gas mains leading to Ukraine at three metering stations and ceased boosting pressure in the westbound pipelines from a storage system that is designed to keep the pressure up during peak demand in the winter. It was unclear whether the impact on the other countries was a result of Gazprom's action or whether it was the result of interference by Ukraine.

    "It's their task not to take the gas that goes through their territory," a Gazprom spokesman, Denis I. Ignatyev, said in a telephone interview.

    Prime Minister Yury I. Yekhanurov of Ukraine said on Sunday that his country was not siphoning gas from the pipeline.

    The State Department, expressing hope that the conflict would be resolved, said in a statement: "Such an abrupt step creates insecurity in the energy sector in the region and raises serious questions about the use of energy to exert political pressure. As we have told both Russia and Ukraine, we support a move toward market pricing for energy, but believe that such a change should be introduced over time rather than suddenly and unilaterally."

    Politics and Gas Prices Mr. Putin has said that Russia's foreign policy will hinge on energy exports. In trips to Germany, Turkey and Japan last fall, he boldly promised not only a secure supply of fuel for the West, but also that Russia could become a much larger energy exporting nation in the years ahead.

    He pushed Germany to endorse a multibillion-dollar underwater gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea. Gazprom is hoping to extend the pipe to Denmark, Belgium and Britain. Gazprom is also in talks with a short list of five major energy companies to develop a huge gas field in the Barents Sea, far above the Arctic Circle off western Russia, hoping to ship significant quantities of liquefied natural gas directly to the United States, the world's largest energy consumer.

    Gazprom is the Russian government's largest energy policy instrument - though the company sometimes insists it operates only on business principles. The loss of fuel, if it persists, could shake Ukraine's economy the way the 1973 oil embargo helped plunge the United States into recession. Ukrainian officials said the loss could reverse its modest economic growth to cause a contraction of between 4 and 5 percent this year.

    The dispute involves complex arguments by Gazprom, which says the price it wants to charge Ukraine is based on the prices of competing fuels, like diesel and bunker oil, on international exchanges. But not far below the surface, there is the embarrassing loss of a Kremlin-backed candidate in last winter's Orange Revolution.

    Russia has increased the costs of its natural gas to other former Soviet states, though not as steeply. Belarus, a Russian ally, pays $47 per 1,000 cubic meters.

    With its reduction in the flow of natural gas - from a rate of around 120 million cubic meters per day to around 96, according to Gazprom - Russia demonstrated there is only so far Ukraine can go before Russia reacts, and that indeed the country is still within Mr. Putin's range of influence. Each side blamed the other for the breakdown in talks.

    "We will take all steps not to allow theft," the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement. "We get the impression that the Ukrainian government, feeling themselves uncertain, deliberately decided to break off the negotiation process."

    In addition to a large pipeline - called "Brotherhood" for the supposed warm relations between the two Slavic republics in Soviet times - Russian gas enters Ukraine through more than 100 smaller pipes.

    "There's a lot of posturing and a lot of ways to put pressure on Ukraine," said Leonid Y. Mirzoyan, an equity analyst at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, a financial company that has investment banking business with Gazprom.

    In addition to the natural gas provided by Russia, Ukraine has domestic production and contracts for natural gas from the Central Asian country of Turkmenistan.

    Naftogaz officials in Ukraine have said the Russian exports to Western Europe will not diminish. Yet government officials have also said the country will siphon gas from the export routes if necessary. Ukraine is a party to the European Energy Charter, an agreement intended to prevent disruption of fuel passing between countries.

    Nonetheless, Mr. Ignatyev, the Gazprom spokesman, said Sunday evening that Gazprom had already detected some siphoning of gas by Ukraine, and that the company would reveal its evidence on Monday.

  3. #3

    Re: Some big changes are coming.

    Russia has been looking for a way to "punish" the Ukraine since they turned their back on Russian dominated politics and voted for Yushchenko, despite intense intimidation. This is economic terrorism. Play by my rules or I'll take my ball back mentallity. Gazprom wanted to quadruple the cost of supplying the gas to the Ukraine, Ukraine said no, so Gazprom turn down the pressure. Then squeal that the Ukraine is pinching the gas that's meant for other countries.

    Priceless. I'm sure the Ukranian electorate will see that for what it is.

  4. #4

    Re: Some big changes are coming.

    Then squeal that the Ukraine is pinching the gas that's meant for other countries.
    They always have. How do you think Yulia Timoshenko got her personal fortune? At the expense of Germany and Russia. That is why they are building the Baltic pipeline.

    I can see what the Ukrainian people think. I am willing to bet that the Crimean peninsula is going to tell Yushenko to **** off. Then the eastern Ukraine. This could be a civil war. Yushenko will lose.

  5. #5

    Re: Some big changes are coming.

    I cant pretend to compete with you on International politics but from a conversation I had with a Ukranian friend last year, Yushchenko was a hero. I know the country is pretty much divided into two, one pro Russian and one pro west. I just see the whole election process as being along the same lines as it was before.

    Gazprom are'nt acting of their own volition , they are a monopoly within Russia and Putin pulls the strings to act out a device for creating mayhem in Ukraine before elections. Whether the electorate buy it depends on what side of that political devide you are on

  6. #6

    Re: Some big changes are coming.

    Your friend must have been of the Polish type Ukrainian/Galacian. Unfortunately he is in the minority. The "Orange Revolution" turned out to be no better than the first election when all was said and done. With the exception of the fact that the international observers didn't pay as close attention at the polling places because they were "exhausted".

    If the election process goes as before, it may get bloody.

    Gazprom are'nt acting of their own volition , they are a monopoly within Russia and Putin pulls the strings to act out a device for creating mayhem in Ukraine before elections.
    What comes around, goes around.

  7. #7

    Re: Some big changes are coming.

    The truth of the matter is Russia tried to influence the elections but it bit him in the arse. This is his next attempt and I personally think it will chew his other arse cheek

    Due in large part to the opposition movement's efforts, the results of the original run-off were annulled and a second run-off election was ordered by Ukraine's Supreme Court for December 26, 2004. Under intense international scrutiny, the official results of the second run-off proved to be virtually problem-free, legally valid and clearly in Yushchenko's favor. He was declared the official winner and with his inauguration on January 23rd 2005 in Kiev, the Orange Revolution reached its successful and peaceful conclusion.

    What is it you see differently ? Do you think the pro Russian's will look to make things more violent,presumably with help from Putin ?. What will happen to Putin if he fails again The Ukraine is a huge political and economic prize. Perhaps your pessemism is based on the fact you see huge pressure on Putin NOT to fail this time

  8. #8

    Re: Some big changes are coming.

    What is it you see differently ?
    What I see is that the corrupt junta installed by the west is no different from the one it replaced. As a matter of fact it is worse considering the ethnic and class divisions that it is allowing to build.

    The truth of the matter is Russia tried to influence the elections but it bit him in the arse. This is his next attempt and I personally think it will chew his other arse cheek
    I think you're going to far afield. Putin has nothing to worry about, everyone knows what will happen to energy prices if Russia tightens the noose. You think the Arab Oil Embargo was bad? Get ready.

    Europe is already feeling it and most European countries know who the problem is. Especially those downstream from the Ukraine. Russia is going to make them pay because at $50 per 1000 cm minus what they siphon off they pay almost nothing for gas yet CHARGE THE UKRAINIAN PEOPLE FOR IT!!

    The people in the Ukraine are being stolen from (just as the Russians/Europeans are) because the people pay for the gas to heat their homes and do business ect. The corrupt politicians pay next to nothing for it and reap huge profits.

    Get it?

    Yushenko cannot agree to the price hike because then those profits, the profits that keep his junta in power will disappear. Unless of course they SIPHON MORE GAS OFF THE LINE, at which point the Europeans will be getting less and the theft of the gas will become easier to prove.

    They will have to start stealing in large amounts, drawing more attention to themselves.

    Get it?

    This is his next attempt and I personally think it will chew his other arse cheek
    Dead wrong. This is the cops battering down the door on a den of thieves. Make no mistake, the Europeans know who the theives are.

    Do you think the pro Russian's will look to make things more violent,presumably with help from Putin ?.
    I know Yushenko won't be cold, I suspect the people will be, and they will not like it.

    If there is a loss of control there by government the only power in the area that can step in and prevent another Balkan war is Russia. I hope it doesn't come to that.

  9. #9

    Re: Some big changes are coming.

    Check out the news, it's pretty up to date and accurate,

    Better than FOX.

  10. #10

    Re: Some big changes are coming.

    Register to remove this ad.
    The latest report is that Gazprom has reopened all lines including the valves in the Kursk stations to add 95,000 cm to the flow so that the Europeans can get their full allotment. In theory this should work, but now the Ukrainians will simply siphon/steal more.

    The whole matter is going to court now in the EU.

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