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Thread: ForumGarden's prediction regarding this so-called Global Warming crisis

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    Senior Member Accountable's Avatar
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    Re: ForumGarden's prediction regarding this so-called Global Warming crisis

    Quote Originally Posted by spot View Post
    [...] there's no instance of an atmosphere so overloaded with contaminants, either soot or carbon dioxide or methane - we're out on an unprecedented limb already [...]
    I thought I heard that a volcano eruption puts out enough pollutants (did you call them 'effluents'?) to qualify as a precedent, quantity-wise.

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    Re: ForumGarden's prediction regarding this so-called Global Warming crisis

    A lot of the problem with people's acceptance of the reality of Global Warming and how serious it really is, is that people don't understand numbers with more than about four noughts behind them. I know I don't, but I know I don't, if you see what I mean.

    I've heard people saying, "Yeah, but it has all happened before - look, 6,000,000 years ago the earth was 4 degrees Centigrade hotter than it is now. What's the problem?" and they happily imagine palm tree fringed beaches on Scotland's West coast...

    The problem is the speed of the change. There's not enough time for vegetation to migrate away from the overheating areas, and new forms of life to evolve to exploit them.

    Galbally: Thanks for the succinct explanation.

    spot: Thanks for raising this.

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    Re: ForumGarden's prediction regarding this so-called Global Warming crisis

    Quote Originally Posted by Accountable View Post
    I thought I heard that a volcano eruption puts out enough pollutants (did you call them 'effluents'?) to qualify as a precedent, quantity-wise.
    Somewhere in a timescale of hundreds of million of years there might have been a lava plain several thousand miles wide and several hundred miles across all erupting at the same time for thousands of years - I think it's called the Deccan Traps. But there's been nothing like it in the last 50 million years and in order to discuss what's happening sensibly I'm suggesting a cut-off at that period because life before then was markedly different to life since, and your ancestor at that point resembled a small foot-high startled deer with flat feet.

    An eruption like Krakatoa dips the world average temperature by a degree or two for a year or two by shading. It's not sustained or long-term and the point of my OP was to indicate that only long-term contamination has any effect, the planet's surface heat has no memory, it's just a consequence of what's happening that month. Ocean currents are one of the few things with a longer memory than that. If you could wave a wand and wake up tomorrow with the atmosphere from 1000AD out there worldwide then the arctic ice cap would rebuild itself I imagine. As it is, I've made my prediction a while ago on FG for when it will be completely gone - the summer of 2013. To be honest sooner is better since it's definitely going to completely go and I think that's the huge visible sign that'll push the politicians into finally acting.
    Last edited by spot; 04-14-2008 at 02:06 PM.
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    Re: ForumGarden's prediction regarding this so-called Global Warming crisis

    You are right about the Deccan Traps and Krakatoa. It also applies to Mt St Helens, but it's to do with the amount of volcanic ash they put out: several million tons of it from Mt St Helens, if I remember right. It's too big a number for most people to comprehend, though - what I was referring to in my earlier post about numbers with more than about four noughts behind them being too big for most of us to understand.

    Anyway, the ash gradually settles over a decade or so - nowadays we are pumping gases into the atmosphere which have the opposite effect - a greenhouse effect, not a shading effect.

    Please correct me if I'm wrong on any of this.

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    Re: ForumGarden's prediction regarding this so-called Global Warming crisis

    I think a part of what we're trying to get across is the difference between a condition and a trend. What I wanted to make clear in the OP is that there's no long-term memory to the planet's surface temperature. If the weather systems happen to produce a worldwide cooling for a year then you'll see a worldwide cooling for a year. The trend's set by the atmosphere but weather systems can self-perpetuate for months or, where they're driven by surface sea temperatures, for over a year. A weather system can reflect more than the average Sun heat back into space than normal and give a global cooling effect. Another weather system can do the opposite, let more heat in than average and boost temperatures worldwide for months. The only thing driving global warming is the composition of the atmosphere and the reflectivity of the planet as seen from space, both of which are tending toward weather systems which warm things up.

    There - that's the first contentious thing I've written in the thread I think. "both of which are tending toward weather systems which warm things up". That's the $64,000 question which people are trying to demonstrate one way or the other. Nobody seems to have challenged any of my previous sentences yet, I'm still hoping someone will.
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    Re: ForumGarden's prediction regarding this so-called Global Warming crisis

    I've been in a karaoke trap. They're fun for everyone but the guy with the mic.

    I'll have to think on this.

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    Talking Re: ForumGarden's prediction regarding this so-called Global Warming crisis

    I guess for me it is simple as I know what the problem is, how the problem will be solved with or without our making it worse or better in any fashion.

    We are the problem for this Planet called Earth, not as big of a problem as we think we are. Like Earth has done so many times in the past when she feels it necessary we won't be a problem for her any longer, we will be gone. Will it happen in our life time no, or our grandkids life times no, but it will happen and only happen when "Mother Earth" is ready and not until then. Will recycling plastic stop this from happening no, will lowering emissions help no, will our attempt to stop the ice caps from melting help no. We are but a NAT on the surface of this Planet it can careless what we do as it will repair its surface, and any another layers that needs fixing when we are gone she is very good at repairs been doing it since her creation.
    ALOHA!!
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    WOO HOO!!, what a ride!!!"


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    Re: ForumGarden's prediction regarding this so-called Global Warming crisis

    Quote Originally Posted by spot View Post
    I think a part of what we're trying to get across is the difference between a condition and a trend. What I wanted to make clear in the OP is that there's no long-term memory to the planet's surface temperature. If the weather systems happen to produce a worldwide cooling for a year then you'll see a worldwide cooling for a year. The trend's set by the atmosphere but weather systems can self-perpetuate for months or, where they're driven by surface sea temperatures, for over a year. A weather system can reflect more than the average Sun heat back into space than normal and give a global cooling effect. Another weather system can do the opposite, let more heat in than average and boost temperatures worldwide for months. The only thing driving global warming is the composition of the atmosphere and the reflectivity of the planet as seen from space, both of which are tending toward weather systems which warm things up.

    There - that's the first contentious thing I've written in the thread I think. "both of which are tending toward weather systems which warm things up". That's the $64,000 question which people are trying to demonstrate one way or the other. Nobody seems to have challenged any of my previous sentences yet, I'm still hoping someone will.
    Are people seriously still questioning that the atmosphere is in general trapping more energy and as a consequence warming up? I though even GW Bush has accepted at least that much of the argument, whatever about the consequences. Then again, perhaps not. It seems to me that the latest flat earth position is that yes, yes, ok the Earth is heating (a bit), but its alright, and it won't be so bad, a few sea walls, and some hybrid cars will solve the whole thing. Anyway, its handy to be able to sail across the pole to Russia, as there are great bargains in Submarines in Archangel.
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    Re: ForumGarden's prediction regarding this so-called Global Warming crisis

    Quote Originally Posted by CARLA View Post
    We are the problem for this Planet called Earth, not as big of a problem as we think we are.
    Carla, either you want this species to survive into the future or you don't, I'm not particularly interested in the planet. I'm hugely interested in keeping humanity in existence and I'm quite keen on not losing a significant percentage of the other existing species too if I can help it. The knowledge that the rats might form a new civilization in another ten million years does not fill me with happiness, I actually want my own offspring to inherit something. Disinterested philosophy can only take me so far.
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    Supporting Member spot's Avatar
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    Re: ForumGarden's prediction regarding this so-called Global Warming crisis

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    Quote Originally Posted by Galbally View Post
    Are people seriously still questioning that the atmosphere is in general trapping more energy and as a consequence warming up?
    Yes, that's exactly what some people are rejecting. Michael Crichton in particular, if you ever find a copy of State of Fear and a spare half day.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Crichton#Criticism
    Nullius in verba|||||||||||
    Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game!

    The watch of your vision has become reasonable today.

    It’s normal. You must provoke. You must insult the belief of all monotheists. You must make fun of the belief of all monotheists.
    From the upper tier of the Leppings Lane End of the Hillsborough Stadium, I watched the events of that day unfold with horror.
    When the flowers want to oxygen and nutrition, or you’re a wedding or party planner, I will help you too much.
    Write that word in the blood

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