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Thread: Positive outcome from brexit

  1. #161
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    Re: Positive outcome from brexit

    Quote Originally Posted by FourPart View Post
    Gotta laugh that in the morning Corbyn was challenging Boris to a General Election. Then when Boris put the motion forward to call one he opposed it.

    Boris was right. Corbyn is the first Leader of the Opposition in history to have Opposed a General Election.

    I was a Labour Party Member, but after they reneged on their pledge to respect the result of the Referendum I quit the Party, as have thousands of others. I will also no longer be voting Labour, and once again, I know of plenty of others who are thinking likewise.

    The majority of Labour Constituencies are pro-Leave. Even more of those that they need to Gain are pro-Leave. Most of those that they narrowly Gained last time were pro-Leave, on the pledge that they would respect the Referendum.
    Labour now need to fight an Election on a Remain platform within Leave constituencies after they have already totally u-turned on their previous promises. Good luck with that one.
    I suspect a lot pf leave voters have changed their minds, plus there are now an awful lot more who have turned 18 in the last three years not to mention the 12million thaT didn't vote the last time. The bigger problem might be the remaon vote is split and the tories get back in because of our first past the vote system which skews the result. Cameron also prevented EU residents living voting in the referendum - although they can vote in westminster elections, as well as british expats living in europe. That needs to change.

    Boris wants an election because e can make the date after we have left the eu.

    Why on earth do you still support leaving the eu? Do you net understand what a disaster it will be for our economy, for scientific research.

    I have yet to hear a brexiteer able to give me any positive benefits of leaving the eu.

    Now we have brexiteers trying to bypass the parliament they wanted to take back control cheered on by people who don't seem able to understand why that is so undemocratic. Either way the united kingdom is finished as a politocal entity.

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    Re: Positive outcome from brexit

    Two points have come out on the BBC News this morning.

    One is that the EU would be less damaged by losing the UK than it would be by giving in and then having to give in interminably to all other EU States which queue up for a similar backdown. It's not a new observation but it's worth bringing back into the discussion.

    The other is that this week's legislation will indeed oblige the UK government to ask for an extension to the Halloween deadline, but that at the EU October Summit the UK government itself could veto the extension it just asked for. Any of the 27 nations can apply such a veto including the UK itself, nothing in EU or UK law would prevent it. This is something of a wow blimey so it could insight.
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    Re: Positive outcome from brexit

    https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top...nned-1-6257940

    Convention of Nigels planned to try to stop the name becoming extinct after the rise of Farage

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    Re: Positive outcome from brexit

    The event was first launched by Smith last year following news that no babies had been named Nigel in the UK since 2015, the year before the EU referendum.

    It's a grand conceit but not entirely true. There were eight boys named Nigel last year. It's still a huge drop from 23rd though.

    When I was born I my name was top of the list, it's now 123rd.
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    Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game!

    The watch of your vision has become reasonable today.

    It’s normal. You must provoke. You must insult the belief of all monotheists. You must make fun of the belief of all monotheists.
    From the upper tier of the Leppings Lane End of the Hillsborough Stadium, I watched the events of that day unfold with horror.
    When the flowers want to oxygen and nutrition, or you’re a wedding or party planner, I will help you too much.
    Write that word in the blood

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    Re: Positive outcome from brexit

    The Scottish appeal court has declared the proroguing null and void, the case now goes to join the process from the English court for a final decision by the British supreme court.

    A UK government appeal against the ruling will be head by the Supreme Court in London on Tuesday.

    The Court of Session decision overturns an earlier ruling from the court, which said last week that Mr Johnson had not broken the law.

    It is currently unclear what impact the judgement will have on the current five week suspension of Parliament, a process known as proroguing, which started in the early hours of Tuesday.

    Opposition parties have called for Parliament to be immediately recalled, but government sources have told the BBC that the demands would be rejected.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-49661855
    Nullius in verba|||||||||||
    Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game!

    The watch of your vision has become reasonable today.

    It’s normal. You must provoke. You must insult the belief of all monotheists. You must make fun of the belief of all monotheists.
    From the upper tier of the Leppings Lane End of the Hillsborough Stadium, I watched the events of that day unfold with horror.
    When the flowers want to oxygen and nutrition, or you’re a wedding or party planner, I will help you too much.
    Write that word in the blood

  6. #166
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    Re: Positive outcome from brexit

    The government complied with parliament last night and released the full text of Yellowhammer, as a scanned non-OCR five page PDF. Here's the text for anyone keen to see it more clearly. Point 18 is the blockbuster if anyone wants a suggestion of where to focus.




    OFFICIAL SENSITIVE

    Operation Yellowhammer

    HMG Reasonable Worst Case Planning Assumptions

    As of 2 August 2019

    • When the UK ceases to be a member of the EU in October 2019 all rights and reciprocal arrangements with the EU end.
    • The UK reverts fully to ‘third country’ status. The relationship between the UK and the EU as a whole is unsympathetic, with many MS [Member States] (under pressure from the Commission) unwilling to engage bilaterally and implementing protections unilaterally, though some MS may be more understanding.
    • No bilateral deals have been concluded with individual member states with the exception of the reciprocal agreement on social security coordination with Ireland. EU Citizens living in the UK can retain broadly all rights and status that they were entitled to prior to exit from the EU, at the point of exit.
    • Public and business readiness for a no-deal will remain at a low level, and will decrease to lower levels, because the absence of a clear decision on the form of EU Exit (customs union, no deal etc) does not provide a concrete situation for third parties to prepare for. Readiness will be further limited by increasing EU Exit fatigue, due to the second extension of Article 50, which will limit the effective impact of current preparedness communication. (To be reviewed)
    • Business readiness will not be uniform — in general larger businesses across sectors are more likely to have better developed contingency plans than small and medium sized businesses. Business readiness will be compounded by seasonal effects, impacting on factors such as warehouse availability.
    • Concurrent risks associated with autumn and winter such as severe weather, flooding and seasonal flu could exacerbate a number of impacts and stretch resources of partners and responders.
    • Private sector companies’ behaviour will be governed by commercial considerations, unless influenced otherwise.
    • HMG will act lawfully and in accordance with the rule of law, including by identifying the powers it is using to take specific actions.
    Key planning assumptions
    1. For the purpose of freight flow and traffic management as 31 October is a Thursday, day 1 of exit is now on a Friday rather than the weekend which is not to our advantage. Exit day may coincide with end of October half term school holidays, which vary across the UK. (CCS/DExEU)
    2. France will impose EU mandatory controls on UK goods on Day 1 No Deal (D1 ND) and have built infrastructure and IT system to manage and process customs declarations and support a risk based control regime. On D1 ND, between 50-85% of HGVs travelling via the short Channel Straits may not be ready for French customs. The lack of trader readiness combined with limited space in French ports to hold “unready” HGVs could reduce the flow rate to 40-60% of current levels within one day as unready HGVs will fill the ports and block flow. The worst disruption to the short Channel Straits might last for up to 3 months before it improves by a significant level to around 50-70% (due to more traders getting prepared), although there could continue to be some disruption for significantly longer. In the event of serious disruption, the French might act to ensure some flow through the short Channel crossings. Disruption to flow across the short Channel Straits would also cause significant queues in Kent and delays to HGVs attempting to use the routes to travel to France. In a reasonable worst case scenario, HGVs could face maximum delays of 1.5-2.5 days before being able to cross the border. HGVs that are caught up in congestion in the UK will be unable to return to the EU to collect another load and a proportion of logistics firms may decide to avoid the route should there be significant and prolonged disruption. Analysis to date has suggested a low risk of significant sustained queues at ports outside of Kent which have high volumes of EU traffic, but BDG will continue to work directly with stakeholders at those ports to support planning readiness (BDG/DfT)
    3. In a small number of instances where the impacts of Brexit would be felt negatively in the EU as well as in the UK, Member States may act in way which could also benefit the UK (e.g. energy for Ireland). (CCS/DExEU)
    4. UK citizens travelling to and from the EU may be subject to increased immigration checks at EU border posts. This may lead to passenger delays at St Pancras, Cheriton (Channel Tunnel) and Dover where juxtaposed controls are in place. Dependent on the plans EU Member States put in place to cope with these increased immigration checks it is likely that delays will occur for UK arrivals and departures at EU airports and ports. This could cause some disruption on transport services. Travellers may decide to use alternative routes to complete their journey. (BDG/FCO/HO/DfT)
    5. Demand for energy will be met and there will be no disruption to electricity or gas interconnectors. In NI there will be not be immediate disruption to electricity supply on Day 1. A rapid SEM [Single Electricity Market] split could occur months or years after EU Exit. In this event, there would not be security of supply issues. However, there will likely be significant electricity price increases for consumers (business and domestic), with associated wider economic and political impacts. Some participants could exit the market, thereby exacerbating the economic and political impacts. (BEIS)
    6. The BDG [Border Delivery Group]/DfT [Department for Transport] planning assumption on reduced flow rates describes a pre-mitigation reasonable worst case flow rate that could be as low as 40% D1 ND via the short Channel Straits, with significant disruption lasting up to six months. Unmitigated, this will have an impact on the supply of medicines and medical supplies. The reliance of medicines and medical products’ supply chains on the short straits crossing make them particularly vulnerable to severe extended delays; three-quarters of medicines come via the short straits. Supply chains are also highly regulated and require transportation that meets strict Good Distribution Practices. This can include limits on time of transit, or mean product must be transported under temperature controlled conditions. Whilst some products can be stockpiled, others cannot due to short shelf lives – it will also not be practical to stockpile products to cover expected delays of up to six months. DHSC [Department for Health and Social Care] is developing a multi-layered approach to mitigate these risks. (DHSC)ii. Any disruption to reduce, delay or stop supply of medicines for UK veterinary use would reduce our ability to prevent and control disease outbreaks, with potential detrimental impacts for animal health and welfare, the environment, and wider food safety/availability and zoonotic diseases which can directly impact human health. Industry stockpiling will not be able to match the 4-12 weeks’ worth of stockpiling which took place in March 2019. Air freight capacity and the special import scheme is not a financially viable mitigation to fully close risks associated with all UK veterinary medicine availability issues due to border disruption. (DEFRA)
    7. Certain types of fresh food supply will decrease. Critical dependencies for the food supply chain (such as key input ingredients, chemicals and packaging) may be in shorter supply. In combination, these two factors will not cause an overall shortage of food in the UK but will reduce availability and choice of products and will increase price, which could impact vulnerable groups. The UK growing season will have come to an end and the Agri-food supply chain will be under increased pressure at this time of year, due to preparations for Christmas, which is the busiest time of year for food retailers. Government will not be able to fully anticipate all potential impacts to the agri-food supply chain. There is a risk that panic buying will cause or exacerbate food supply disruption. (DEFRA)ii. Public water services are likely to remain largely unaffected due to actions now being taken by water companies. The most significant single risk is a failure in the chemical supply chain. The likelihood of this occurring is considered low and the impact is likely to be localised, affecting up to 100,000’s of people. Water companies are well prepared for any disruption; they have significant stocks of all critical chemicals, extensive monitoring of their chemical supply chains (including transportation and all deliveries) and mutual agreements in place. In the event of a supply chain failure, or the need to respond rapidly to other water supply incidents, urgent action may need to be taken to make sure people continue to have access to clean water. (DEFRA)
    8. Some cross-border UK financial services will be disrupted. (HMT)
    9. The EU will not have made a data decision with regard to the UK before exit. This will disrupt the flow of personal data from the EU where an alternative legal basis for transfer is not in place. In no deal an adequacy assessment could take years. (DCMS)
    10. Law enforcement data and information sharing between UK and EU will be disrupted. (HO/NSS)
    11. UK nationals will lose their EU citizenship and, as a result, can expect to lose associated rights and access to services over time, or be required to access them on a different basis to now. All MS [Member States] have now published legislative proposals, but not all have passed legislation to secure all rights for UKNs [UK Nationals]. There is a mixed picture across MS in terms of the level of generosity and detail in the legislation. In some MS, UKNs need to take action now, whilst others they do not. Complex administrative procedures within MS, language barriers and uncertainty regarding the UK political situation are contributing to some UKNs being slow to take action. There will be gaps in both substance and understanding. Demand for help from HMG will increase significantly leading to an increase in consular enquiries and more complex and time-consuming consular assistance cases for vulnerable UKNs. Cross HMG support, including continued close engagement and clear communications messaging from UKG departments and the DAs will be needed to help manage the demand. (FCO)ii. An EU Member State would continue to pay a pension it currently pays to a UK national living in the EU. (DWP)iii. The Commission and individual Member States do not agree to extend the current healthcare arrangements for UK state pensioners and tourists beyond 31 October 2019 and refuse offers by the UK to fund treatments. Member States take no further action to guarantee healthcare for UK nationals and treat them in the same way as other 3rd country nationals. UK pensioners, workers, travellers and students will need to access healthcare in different ways, depending on the country. Healthcare may require people to demonstrate residency, current or previous employment, enter a social insurance scheme, or purchase private insurance. Member States should treat people with urgent needs, but may require them to pay after the fact. There is a risk of disruption for patients and a minority could face substantial costs. (DHSC)
    12. Gibraltar, due to the imposition of border checks at its border with Spain (and the knock-on effect of delays from the UK to EU), will see disruption to supply of goods (including food), medicines, trans-frontier shipment of waste and delays of 4+ hours for at least a few months in the movement of frontier workers, residents and tourists across the border. Prolonged border delays over the longer term are likely to adversely impact Gibraltar’s economy. Like the UK mainland, cross-border services and data flow will also be disrupted. Despite the time extension to EU Exit, Gibraltar has still not taken decisions to invest in contingency infrastructure (port adjustments; waste management equipment) and there are still concerns that Gibraltar will not have passed all necessary legislation for No Deal, opening up potential legal gaps/risks mainly for the Government of Gibraltar. Gibraltar continues to plan for less significant border delays than our Yellowhammer scenario. Crown Dependencies may be affected by supply chain disruption. (FCO/MoJ)
    13. Protests and counter-protests will take place across the UK and may absorb significant amounts of police resource. There may also be a rise in public disorder and community tensions. (HO)
    14. Regional traffic disruption caused by border delays could affect fuel distribution within the local area, particularly if traffic queues in Kent block the Dartford crossing, which would disrupt fuel supply in London and the South-East. Customer behaviour could lead to local shortages in other parts of the country. (BEIS)
    15. REDACTED
    16. A small minority of insurance payments from UK insurers into the EU may be delayed. (HMT)
    17. Low income groups will be disproportionately affected by any price rises in food and fuel. (HMT)
    18. On D1 ND HMG will operationalise the “no new checks with limited exceptions” model announced 13 March, establishing a legislative framework and essential operations and system on the ground, to avoid an immediate risk of a return to a hard border on the UK side. The model is likely to prove unsustainable due to significant economic, legal and biosecurity risks and no effective unilateral mitigations to address this will be available. With the UK becoming a third country, the automatic application of the EU tariff and regulatory requirements for goods entering Ireland will severely disrupt trade. The expectation is some businesses will stop trade or relocate to avoid paying the tariff which will make them uncompetitive or to avoid the risk of trading illegally, while others will continue to trade, but experience higher costs which may be passed on to consumers. The agri-food sector will be the hardest hit, given its reliance on highly integrated cross border supply chains and high tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade. Disruption to key sectors and job losses are likely to result in protests and direct action with road blockages. Price and other differentials are likely to lead to the growth of the illegitimate economy. This will be particularly severe in border communities where both criminal and dissident groups already operate with greater threat and impunity. Given the tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade, there will be significant pressure to agree new arrangements which supersede the day one model within days or weeks. (NIO/NICS)
    19. Up to 282 EU and EEA nations fishing vessels could enter illegally, or already be fishing in UK waters (Up to 129 vessels in English waters, 100 vessels in Scottish waters, 40 vessels in Welsh waters, 13 vessels in Northern Irish waters) on day one. This is likely to cause anger and frustration in the UK catching sector, which could lead to both clashes between fishing vessels and an increase in non-compliance in the domestic fleet. Competing demands on UK Government and DA maritime agencies and their assets could put enforcement and response capabilities at risk, especially in the event of concurrent or cumulative incidents, which are likely to include; illegal fishing, borders violations (smuggling and illegal migration), and any disorder or criminality arising as a result, e.g. violent disputes or blockading of ports. (Defra, HO, and the DAs in respect of fisheries protection).
    20. There is an assumption that there will be no major change in adult social care on the day after EU Exit. The adult social care market is already fragile due to declining financial viability of providers. An increase in inflation following EU exit would significantly impact adult social care providers due to increasing staff and supply costs, and may lead to provider failure, with smaller providers impacted within 2-3 months and larger providers 4-6 months after exit. There are also possible concurrent localised risks: transport or staff disruption, severe winter weather or flu that could exacerbate the existing market fragility, and that cumulatively could stretch resources of providers and LAs. Intelligence will continue to be gathered to forewarn of/prepare for any impacts on the sector including closure of services and handing back of contracts which are not part of normal market function. In addition, we will look at the status of preparations in four local authorities, which are identified as priority concerns, by mid-August. (DHSC)
    Nullius in verba|||||||||||
    Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game!

    The watch of your vision has become reasonable today.

    It’s normal. You must provoke. You must insult the belief of all monotheists. You must make fun of the belief of all monotheists.
    From the upper tier of the Leppings Lane End of the Hillsborough Stadium, I watched the events of that day unfold with horror.
    When the flowers want to oxygen and nutrition, or you’re a wedding or party planner, I will help you too much.
    Write that word in the blood

  7. #167
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    Re: Positive outcome from brexit

    The tories still doing their bit to aid the case for scottish independence.

    https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top...case-1-6265357

    The english court ruled that the prorogation case was non- justicable. Justiciable is when the court can make a judgement on a dispute in the courtroom and make a ruling. A non-justiciable is when the court can't hear the case or make any ruling perhaps due to political reason. They didn't say it was lawful they said they could not rule on the issue.

    Scots law is different from english law. Parliament is the sovereign power not the prime minister who is supposedly primus inter pares, not an elected president.

    "This was an egregious case of a clear failure to comply with generally accepted standards of behaviour of public authorities," the Court of Session's ruling said on Wednesday morning.

    "It was to be inferred that the principal reasons for the prorogation were to prevent or impede Parliament holding the executive to account and legislating with regard to Brexit, and to allow the executive to pursue a policy of a no-deal Brexit without further Parliamentary interference."

    It added: "The prime minister's advice to HM the Queen and the prorogation which followed thereon was unlawful and is thus null and of no effect."

    Responding to the ruling, Scottish National Party MP Joanna Cherry QC, who led the legal case, said: "Today's ruling of the highest court in Scotland that Boris Johnson's plans to shut down the UK Parliament ahead of Brexit are unlawful and unconstitutional is a huge victory and a vindication of our case. "

    https://www.businessinsider.com/bori...19-9?r=US&IR=T

  8. #168
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    Re: Positive outcome from brexit

    Today's Brexit highlight - Boris just chickened out of a public appearance with the Luxembourg Prime Minister, and got savaged in his absence. I suspect it will happen every time he's seen in public from now on.

    That was extraordinary. Boris Johnson, the British prime minister, has just been humiliated by the leader of the tiniest country in the European Union.

    We were expecting a joint, open-air press conference but, with a large crowd of anti-Brexit campaigners threatening to drown out Johnson, it was announced that the British PM was not going to take part (presumably because of the demonstration, although that has not officially been confirmed yet). Normally in these circumstances the polite thing to do is to re-arrange. But instead Xavier Bettel, the prime minister of Luxembourg, just went ahead anyway, effectively “empty chairing” his guest. At one point he even gestured at the space where Johnson was supposed to be.

    And then Xavier just let rip. People often wonder what EU leaders say or think about Johnson in private. Well, now we know. The leave campaign was a pack of lies, Johnson’s talk of progress in the Brexit talk is unfounded, the UK still has not come up with any ideas about an alternative to the backstop. On and on he went, with particular emphasis on the point that the UK, not the EU, was to blame for the crisis. It was a “nightmare” for EU citizens, said Bettel. At several points he was loudly applauded by the protesters, because they felt he was articulating their anger.

    Yesterday Johnson depicted himself as the Incredible Hulk. As the Telegraph’s Michael Deacon suggests, the reality could not be more different.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ws-latest-news
    Nullius in verba|||||||||||
    Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game!

    The watch of your vision has become reasonable today.

    It’s normal. You must provoke. You must insult the belief of all monotheists. You must make fun of the belief of all monotheists.
    From the upper tier of the Leppings Lane End of the Hillsborough Stadium, I watched the events of that day unfold with horror.
    When the flowers want to oxygen and nutrition, or you’re a wedding or party planner, I will help you too much.
    Write that word in the blood

  9. #169
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    Re: Positive outcome from brexit

    The lib dems are also saying they would reject a request for a second scottish referendum even if pro-independence parties were to win a majority of seats in Scotland, which by the way they already have. Jo swinson is in a scottsah seat there is every possibilty she will lose it at the next election. I used to vote libdem but not any more since the coalition with the tories and like most scots I remember what they did while in coalition with labour in the scottish parliament - it's ptoportional reperensation that has let them have any seats at all in holyrood. At their peak they had 11 of the scottish seats in westmionster now they have 4. Fair tro say they are on a shhogly peg and I would not be surprised if this kills them off completely.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/17...ical-indyref2/

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    Re: Positive outcome from brexit

    Register to remove this ad.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49663001

    Bigger issue is perhaps which legal system will take presedence. I can't see it being anything other than the english one and the english courts said the prorogation was not juticable i.e. they can't rule on whether it was illegal or not.

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