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Thread: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

  1. #101
    Senior Member Bryn Mawr's Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    Quote Originally Posted by LarsMac View Post
    I am flying through Chicago, today. Not relishing being around several thousand of my fellow travelers for a three hour stopovers.
    Look after yourself, best of luck :-)

  2. #102
    Supporting Member spot's Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    Quote Originally Posted by spot View Post
    Here's the current state on my summary spreadsheet, if the blue line doesn't bend flatter I think it will show over a million confirmed cases worldwide before the end of the month, one tenth of which would have been in China.
    I think there's now enough data to narrow that down a bit. The millionth confirmed case worldwide appears to be due on March 26th give or take a day. Beyond that it's pointless to make estimates, but the course of March seems predictable now within reason.

    I'm not sure how medical reporting will keep up with reality by that stage. When the outbreak in China was uncontrolled the cumulative reported case figure was multiplying by ten every 14 days. In the rest of the world for the last week that gap is down to 10 days, the figure is increasing significantly faster than it did in China and the excuse of cruise ship amplification no longer applies.

    Something eventually will make that 10 day gap widen. I'm not sure what it would be but medical containment isn't on my list of likely salvation. Just waiting for long hot summer days in the Northern hemisphere isn't sensible either.

    There has so far been very little sense of urgency in the news reporting, at least in the UK.

    I wonder how fast human trials of a potential vaccine will take, once candidates are proposed. I'm not sure how one would design the trial to be both ethical and quick. Unethical is easy, you randomly inoculate participant staff at infection hospitals with vaccine or placebo and see which category fares better.

    So, here are my current graphs. I'll only post an update to them if the position changes significantly.












    The first just shows the daily new cases in the Rest of the World, on a log scale. A steady gradient shows exponential growth. There is a steady gradient.

    The second focuses on how far the cumulative Rest of the World confirmed cases diverges from the exponential line. It's pretty close to not diverging, but that's the graph to look at in future if there's a variation arising. If there were no variation from the exponential prediction then the points would all lie in a straight line at 0.010.

    The third is the cumulative Rest of the World confirmed cases compared with those of mainland China (in red, 100th the scale to make an overlay comparison). The figures in China have stabilized and are no longer exponential. The blue line has not stabilized and shows no sign that it will. The yellow line is the projected progress at the current rate. The red points were uncontrolled to begin with and then flat once medical isolation became effective. The blue points were raised high by the cruise liner epidemics at close quarters, since when they've just been an exponential progression.

    I note that prisons worldwide are very like cruise liners.

    The progression of the disease in the Rest of the World lags the China figures by four weeks, which is why the cumulative Rest of the World figures are still lower than those in China. That will soon change.
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    Last edited by spot; 03-05-2020 at 06:41 AM.
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  3. #103
    Proudly humble LarsMac's Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    Well, we now have two reported cases in Colorado.
    Looking all the goings'on I think we now have reached a point where there are tow things that will screw with keeping track of this thing.
    1. A large number of people are asymptomatic. They have been exposed, and probably have the virus, but have either not yet expressed symptoms, and may not even know they have it. This will play hell with trying to control the thing.

    2. There are likely to be people who are symptomatic, but not severly, and may never report to, or request aid from medical facilities.

    Of course there will also be people who have something else - Common Cold, one of the various Influenza strains, or something else.

    Bst thing to do is hunker down, and avoid crowds, and practice proper Hygiene.

    My wife wants to go up the hill to the casinos and play for a day or so. Somehow, hanging out in a big building crowded with people who demonstrate poor judgement is not my idea of a good time, even in the best of days.
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  4. #104
    Supporting Member spot's Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    I agree that the actuality on the ground has little to do with the published figures.

    What's published will also vary a lot on what the national medical reporters are told, and as you say if tests aren't done on asymptomatic real positives then they'll not be registered as positive. I reckon Indonesia is a huge instance of exactly that, a country with thousands of positive bodies two of whom have been tested.

    We can continue counting deaths for a few more weeks but then that count will also diverge from the ground truth. I think we've done what we needed to do already, established where the outbreak is going and what the consequence will be.

    By Christmas this year there will be a number of deaths due to Covid-19. We could now set a likely bracket and say it will be between these two figures. We can base it on the reported deaths to date for the registered positives up until, say, two weeks ago (to allow them time to be registered dead after going into the tested-positive category).

    What we can't know yet is whether summer will slow the progress. What we can be sure of is that people who catch it will either gain immunity by surviving the disease or they'll die of it, until a vaccine is available for everyone who hasn't yet caught it, and that no vaccine will be in mass circulation by Christmas.

    Ballpark totals? I can do that for America and the UK, the rest of the world has too many unknowns to try.

    The number of deaths this year in America and the UK will be 50% up on normal years.

    The actual number of those excess dead Americans will be around [1] the country's combined total military wartime losses from all causes since 1775, but that's neither here nor there. More proportionately, given the population increase, America lost 0.13% of its population to World War 1, 0.32% to World War 2, and this year's comparable Covid-19 toll will be about 0.45%.

    By November you'll have lost around 4 senators and 20 representatives to the disease - half of them are old, let's face it - and you'll finally get to re-elect President Trump. Hell of a year all round really.

    eta: here, in timely fashion, is the Guardian on the same topic. One hour later by the look of it. So it turns out I'm not being alarmist.

    UK has plans to deal with pandemic causing up to 315,000 deaths






    1: That bit of the post is entirely gratuitous and I only mention it because my coronavirus calculation ended up saying 1.352m and the Wikipedia table for United States military deaths through combat and all other causes, including the Confederacy, is given as 1.354m. Pure coincidence.
    Nullius in verba|||||||||||
    Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game!

    The watch of your vision has become reasonable today.

    England's troubles will increase until the bishops open Joanna Southcott's box.
    It’s normal. You must provoke. You must insult the belief of all monotheists. You must make fun of the belief of all monotheists.
    From the upper tier of the Leppings Lane End of the Hillsborough Stadium, I watched the events of that day unfold with horror.
    When the flowers want to oxygen and nutrition, or you’re a wedding or party planner, I will help you too much.
    Write that word in the blood

  5. #105
    Senior Member Saint_'s Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    Schools in Seattle closed. I spent yesterday training for Distance Learning and Tele-teaching. My School is developing a plan for online school is the school is closed for two months or more...
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  6. #106
    Proudly humble LarsMac's Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bryn Mawr View Post
    Look after yourself, best of luck :-)
    I managed to find defend-able spots at both airports where I could keep my distance from random travelers while waiting for my plane. Apparently many of the passengers had the same idea. And when lining up to board, everyone was keeping their distance, as well.
    Sitting there sniffling randomly, and clearing my throat every now and again, helped.
    Also the airline was offering fee-free reservation changes, so I think some folks opted to stay home for the now.
    And when I got to DEN, I opted to call an Uber rather than the original plan of taking the Regional Transportation System.

    home safe since Tuesday night.
    "Learn from the mistakes of others---you can never live long enough to make them all yourself."
    - Anon

  7. #107
    Supporting Member spot's Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    Quote Originally Posted by Saint_ View Post
    My School is developing a plan for online school is the school is closed for two months or more...
    If you go down that route you might find a proportion of children prefer it and stay there. For one thing they needn't be physically proximate to the school any longer, for another they can be a lot more selective in what they study. The school itself might end up with a lower-cost teaching model. From where you're stood it's a slippery slope.
    Nullius in verba|||||||||||
    Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game!

    The watch of your vision has become reasonable today.

    England's troubles will increase until the bishops open Joanna Southcott's box.
    It’s normal. You must provoke. You must insult the belief of all monotheists. You must make fun of the belief of all monotheists.
    From the upper tier of the Leppings Lane End of the Hillsborough Stadium, I watched the events of that day unfold with horror.
    When the flowers want to oxygen and nutrition, or you’re a wedding or party planner, I will help you too much.
    Write that word in the blood

  8. #108
    Senior Member Bryn Mawr's Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    Quote Originally Posted by LarsMac View Post
    I managed to find defend-able spots at both airports where I could keep my distance from random travelers while waiting for my plane. Apparently many of the passengers had the same idea. And when lining up to board, everyone was keeping their distance, as well.
    Sitting there sniffling randomly, and clearing my throat every now and again, helped.
    Also the airline was offering fee-free reservation changes, so I think some folks opted to stay home for the now.
    And when I got to DEN, I opted to call an Uber rather than the original plan of taking the Regional Transportation System.

    home safe since Tuesday night.
    That’s good to hear, thank you :-)

  9. #109
    Proudly humble LarsMac's Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    some thoughts:
    The thing to remember about all those dots on the map is that they represent people who showed up at a medical facility with symptoms severe enough to draw attention to their condition, and then field-tested positive for the COVID19 Corona Virus.
    The Bug is here. You can count on the fact that a lot more people have been exposed, and infected, already. The question that remains is how many people will have dangerous symptoms from the thing.


    In Mainland China, the cases seem, for the moment to have leveled off. Less than 100 thousand reported cases, in a population of over a billion. You can bet that there are a lot more people in China who were exposed, and infected, but may have never experienced extreme symptoms.

    Some of that may be the result of the attention drawn to it by the authorities. But that is unsustainable. Eventually the authorities will have to relax the level of vigilance. Evenutally a vaccine will be produced, maybe. Or it will fade into the background as just another bug we must watch out for.

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  10. #110
    Supporting Member spot's Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

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    There is a measurable indicator of the unseen unregistered cases, and that's a statistical sampling of people in general. Those who were exposed, even asymptomatic, will test positive for antibodies. You compare the hits with the register.

    I'm quite sure WHO and the Chinese are gathering that information, but I've not seen it published.
    Nullius in verba|||||||||||
    Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game!

    The watch of your vision has become reasonable today.

    England's troubles will increase until the bishops open Joanna Southcott's box.
    It’s normal. You must provoke. You must insult the belief of all monotheists. You must make fun of the belief of all monotheists.
    From the upper tier of the Leppings Lane End of the Hillsborough Stadium, I watched the events of that day unfold with horror.
    When the flowers want to oxygen and nutrition, or you’re a wedding or party planner, I will help you too much.
    Write that word in the blood

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