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Thread: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

  1. #171
    Proudly humble LarsMac's Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    April 1st or 2nd are looking very good for that mark, now.
    The way the US is going, we could well see the 1 million mark by the last week or so of April. The "Shelter in place/Stay home" strategy is far to sporadic to show a real success for the next couple-three weeks.
    This **** is starting to scare me.
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  2. #172
    Supporting Member spot's Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    Quote Originally Posted by LarsMac View Post
    This **** is starting to scare me.
    It has at least led to some inspired lunacy. I've just been browsing YouTube for people hand-washing to Gloria Gaynor's "I Will Survive" and there was Gloria Gaynor herself, joining in. You couldn't make it up.
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  3. #173
    Supporting Member spot's Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    Quote Originally Posted by spot View Post
    The UK has a new expression, "NHS Field Hospital".
    And another. Birmingham's National Exhibition Centre is being equipped to treat confirmed cases, next door to "Birmingham airport's Hangar facility will have space for 12,000 bodies". We're certainly a practical people when it comes to crises, neither building could open at the moment for any other reason.
    Nullius in verba|||||||||||
    Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game!

    The watch of your vision has become reasonable today.

    England's troubles will increase until the bishops open Joanna Southcott's box.
    It’s normal. You must provoke. You must insult the belief of all monotheists. You must make fun of the belief of all monotheists.
    From the upper tier of the Leppings Lane End of the Hillsborough Stadium, I watched the events of that day unfold with horror.
    When the flowers want to oxygen and nutrition, or you’re a wedding or party planner, I will help you too much.
    Write that word in the blood

  4. #174
    Senior Member FourPart's Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    Quote Originally Posted by spot View Post
    You may be entirely right, my mathematics is elementary and I've never reached any book or program which has offered the scaling you suggest. If you know of any site on any subject which has examples I'll adjust my display immediately.
    https://youtu.be/Kas0tIxDvrg

  5. #175
    Supporting Member spot's Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    Quote Originally Posted by FourPart View Post
    Thank you, I quite liked the video.

    The chap only used two graph forms though. He started with x and y linear, and at 2 minutes he switched to x linear and y logarithmic.

    What I was puzzled by was this bit that you wrote: "The graph is misleading as it shows the base line as being Incremental. This is not the case, as the base should be Logistical" - I still don't quite know what you meant. If "the base line" is the x axis then the chap never changed its scale at any stage in the video.

    What am I failing to read correctly.

    As an aside, the world is nowhere near reaching the point of inflection yet. His indication of how the graph eventually peters out is when he multiplies (1 - %population_already_affected) to his daily projection. That's what stops the projection from ever exceeding the population.
    Nullius in verba|||||||||||
    Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game!

    The watch of your vision has become reasonable today.

    England's troubles will increase until the bishops open Joanna Southcott's box.
    It’s normal. You must provoke. You must insult the belief of all monotheists. You must make fun of the belief of all monotheists.
    From the upper tier of the Leppings Lane End of the Hillsborough Stadium, I watched the events of that day unfold with horror.
    When the flowers want to oxygen and nutrition, or you’re a wedding or party planner, I will help you too much.
    Write that word in the blood

  6. #176
    Supporting Member spot's Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    Right, an attempt at a new graph.

    This is about who has been more at risk of catching or dying of Covid-19 during the outbreak so far.

    For each line there are two people being compared. The categories of people are UK, US and World. You randomly select one of each, UK or US, UK or World, or US or World depending on the line.

    You keep randomly picking a pair until you get two people one of whom has either confirmed as having caught it or died of it, and then you see which of the two it was.

    If you find a hundred pairs, you can count how many are in the first group. That's what's plotted for each day of the outbreak.

    The vertical lines are ten days apart.

    Start with the blue line, US:UK cases.The first cases are all US at the end of January. Then the first UK case appears. For most of February the chance of the random confirmed case being American is between 20% and 30%. Since then it's pretty even but the US is catching it at a faster rate so the chance of the infected person being American is rising.

    The red line is the same candidates but dead. It trails confirmed cases by four weeks. It's about the same story, which makes sense.

    For the other graphs, the confirmed cases and deaths worldwide were already established and growing when the first US or UK confirmed cases or deaths happened. We have since caught up at a rapid rate, and now the likelihood of the random person being US or UK as opposed to World is higher than even. We monitor better, I expect. If everyone was accurately described as having been infected or died of Covid-19 then the lines wouldn't yet be that high but I still think they'd be aimed at least at an even probability. In terms of just the counted statistics, the US and UK are rocketing up the charts.

    Behind all of the counted totals there's the asymptomatic and they don't show at all. I think that affects the count of cases but it's hard to be asymptomatically dead, death being a symptom.

    That yellow line is the nasty one. If you have two bags, one with every American in and the other everyone on the planet, and you keep taking a random person out of each bag and counting whenever one is a confirmed case, four times out of five you're counting an American. Already.




    A final detail. Assuming the US and UK are not in fact exceptional as far as the confirmed case rate goes, 1:2800 and 1:3700 respectively, and that the claimed Rest of the World rate of 1:15000 actually just reflects a lack of testing, then there are around a million more cases in the Rest of the World which are as severe as we're counting as confirmed cases in the US and UK, but which aren't showing in the available statistics.

    I'll look at this graph again in a while and decide whether it carries information or whether it's just junk.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails Click image for larger version

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    Nullius in verba|||||||||||
    Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game!

    The watch of your vision has become reasonable today.

    England's troubles will increase until the bishops open Joanna Southcott's box.
    It’s normal. You must provoke. You must insult the belief of all monotheists. You must make fun of the belief of all monotheists.
    From the upper tier of the Leppings Lane End of the Hillsborough Stadium, I watched the events of that day unfold with horror.
    When the flowers want to oxygen and nutrition, or you’re a wedding or party planner, I will help you too much.
    Write that word in the blood

  7. #177
    Senior Member FourPart's Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    Quote Originally Posted by spot View Post
    Thank you, I quite liked the video.

    The chap only used two graph forms though. He started with x and y linear, and at 2 minutes he switched to x linear and y logarithmic.

    What I was puzzled by was this bit that you wrote: "The graph is misleading as it shows the base line as being Incremental. This is not the case, as the base should be Logistical" - I still don't quite know what you meant. If "the base line" is the x axis then the chap never changed its scale at any stage in the video.

    What am I failing to read correctly.

    As an aside, the world is nowhere near reaching the point of inflection yet. His indication of how the graph eventually peters out is when he multiplies (1 - %population_already_affected) to his daily projection. That's what stops the projection from ever exceeding the population.
    I meant that the increamental line shown os plotted on the basis of 1,1 - 2,2 - 3,3 etc, thus forming a straight line, whereas the actual line should be on the logistic basis of a bell - curving upwards until it either reaches its peak, be that maximum contagion, or maximum isolation before the curve begins to mirror itself as the cases become fewer.

  8. #178
    Supporting Member spot's Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    Quote Originally Posted by FourPart View Post
    I meant that the increamental line shown os plotted on the basis of 1,1 - 2,2 - 3,3 etc, thus forming a straight line, whereas the actual line should be on the logistic basis of a bell - curving upwards until it either reaches its peak, be that maximum contagion, or maximum isolation before the curve begins to mirror itself as the cases become fewer.
    Well yes, clearly it can either be plotted as a natural graph or it can be plotted on a log scale, both have their uses and both tell exactly the same numbers but use a different shape to do it. The whole point of the log scale is the straight line. You can't project a natural graph to make future prediction, because it's a curve and all the detail disappears except on the scale of the last week or two and all the space for projection into the future can't exist.

    Both graphs on both scales, natural and log are "actual", neither has lost information or lied about it.

    The difference between the ascending line and the bell curve is that a permanently ascending line shows the accumulated count of cases or deaths, which always goes upward, while the bell curve shows the daily number of cases or deaths. Again, either has its uses, both represent exactly the same information and neither tell a lie. The permanently ascending line invariably flattens to a horizontal line when the event is finished, at which point it's showing the total count of cases or deaths. The ascending line is the integral of the bell curve, the bell curve shows its gradient as the differential of the ascending line. The same pair exists if you plot a car journey along a time axis as speed, the bell curve plotting distance per second, or alternatively plot distance travelled, the cumulative distance.

    "logistic", to the best of my knowledge, is a synonym for logarithmic.
    Nullius in verba|||||||||||
    Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game!

    The watch of your vision has become reasonable today.

    England's troubles will increase until the bishops open Joanna Southcott's box.
    It’s normal. You must provoke. You must insult the belief of all monotheists. You must make fun of the belief of all monotheists.
    From the upper tier of the Leppings Lane End of the Hillsborough Stadium, I watched the events of that day unfold with horror.
    When the flowers want to oxygen and nutrition, or you’re a wedding or party planner, I will help you too much.
    Write that word in the blood

  9. #179
    Supporting Member spot's Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    For anyone who can play BBC Radio on the Internet, https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3csythk is startlingly helpful and informative concerning the South Korean response.

    Coronavirus: What can the world learn from South Korea?
    The Inquiry

    South Korea has reduced its daily new coronavirus cases by 90 per cent and kept mortality rates low. What can we learn from what they’ve done?
    On another note, of the first 165 British patients treated in intensive care, the "outcomes of patients admitted to critical care with confirmed COVID-19" shows a 48% mortality. I do hope they get better with practice, those are not good odds. The linked "ICNARC report on COVID-19 in critical care" carries a breakdown on page 7, table 2.
    Nullius in verba|||||||||||
    Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game!

    The watch of your vision has become reasonable today.

    England's troubles will increase until the bishops open Joanna Southcott's box.
    It’s normal. You must provoke. You must insult the belief of all monotheists. You must make fun of the belief of all monotheists.
    From the upper tier of the Leppings Lane End of the Hillsborough Stadium, I watched the events of that day unfold with horror.
    When the flowers want to oxygen and nutrition, or you’re a wedding or party planner, I will help you too much.
    Write that word in the blood

  10. #180
    Supporting Member spot's Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    Register to remove this ad.
    The comments of Lord Sumption are far and away the most sensible observations I've seen in weeks. Well done that man.


    A former supreme court justice has heavily criticised Derbyshire police for stopping people exercising in the Peak District saying that such behaviour risks plunging Britain into a “police state”.

    Lord Sumption warned that police had no legal power to enforce “ministers’ wishes” and that the public should not be “resigning their liberty” to over-zealous citizens in uniform.

    “The behaviour of the Derbyshire police in trying to shame people in using their undoubted right to take exercise in the country and wrecking beauty spots in the fells so people don’t want to go there is frankly disgraceful,” he said.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ceful-policing
    Nullius in verba|||||||||||
    Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game!

    The watch of your vision has become reasonable today.

    England's troubles will increase until the bishops open Joanna Southcott's box.
    It’s normal. You must provoke. You must insult the belief of all monotheists. You must make fun of the belief of all monotheists.
    From the upper tier of the Leppings Lane End of the Hillsborough Stadium, I watched the events of that day unfold with horror.
    When the flowers want to oxygen and nutrition, or you’re a wedding or party planner, I will help you too much.
    Write that word in the blood

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