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Thread: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

  1. #11
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    Quote Originally Posted by LarsMac View Post
    The graphic could be a little intimidating.
    I've simplified it.



    The blue is the Rest of the World cases, the red very properly is Mainland China and is in hundreds of cases.

    A straight line means the disease is unaffected by measures, the degree to which it levels off is the human response by way of masks and isolation.

    Is it bending? Maybe? I'm not going to react to a three-day phase. I think that's a higher rate of people now being ill at home instead of getting medical assessment.

    We can look again at the end of February and know whether it's going to win. My guess is that it will. Public deployment of the first vaccine other than for medical and military staff and politicians is six months off, and it's the public that are on the graph.

    Those two bumps in the red data show the ability of China's central government to control the news, or in this case force the release of news from smaller fry down the food chain.



    NOTE: this post originally miscounted in deaths rather than cases, I have corrected the text and graph but that's why Lars' comments below rightly criticize my wording here.
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  2. #12
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    there are, to date, no deaths in "Rest of the world"
    So far, 110 confirmed cases in the Rest of the world.
    All 171 deaths were in China.

    Perhaps that is more attributed to controlling the news than actually controlling the disease. Time will tell.
    In barely a week it went from a couple hundred infected to nearly nine thousand.

    I guess I will forego my planned trip to Beijing.
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    Another note.
    The first reported case tracks back to December, so 2019 may be part of JH indexing methods.
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    Quote Originally Posted by LarsMac View Post
    there are, to date, no deaths in "Rest of the world"
    So far, 110 confirmed cases in the Rest of the world.
    I was paying attention to the numbers and not the deaths - of course both lines relate to cases and not deaths. That was careless, I'll correct it in any reposts.




    eta: The mistake was sufficiently bad that I've corrected the original graph too, I'd not want that lying around to confuse people.
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    We've seen the list of countries with cases?

    It includes the UK, for all the good that will do. The UK will do a wonderful job, it's not the UK that bothers me.

    It includes:

    South Korea
    Vietnam
    Cambodia
    India
    Nepal
    Philippines
    Sri Lanka

    I think we're into the territory of exponential growth, looking at those.

    So far the average daily growth rate has been over 1.4. That's a ten-fold increase in cases every six days. That's despite all the measures being taken and the fact that resources can still be focused on chasing, finding and isolating contacts.

    The most optimistic guess for the roll-out of mass vaccinations among the general public might be six months.

    We could get lucky and see the disease attenuate, dilute its effect, lose potency. Alternatively it might retain its 2% lethal outcome and continue to spread.

    Perhaps the growth rate might drop to an average of 1.2 instead of the present 1.4, that's a reasonable hope. If it drops to that extent, and the death rate drops to 1% of cases, there would still be over a million dead across the rest of the world by May.

    How to put the disease back into the bag now that it's left China, that's the puzzle.
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    From the upper tier of the Leppings Lane End of the Hillsborough Stadium, I watched the events of that day unfold with horror.
    When the flowers want to oxygen and nutrition, or you’re a wedding or party planner, I will help you too much.
    Write that word in the blood

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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    Nearly 10k reported cases, and the deaths are all still within the more localized regions, probably the earlier reported case.
    Some stats on the fatalities would be useful (date of diagnosis, age, general health prior to infection, that sort of thing.)
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    On the other hand, here in the States, Influenza has killed more people that this new bug has killed globally, and new cases popping up regularly.
    I was at the hospital yesterday, and there is one floor locked down because of the Flu.
    It houses a number of patients who, for various reasons are isolated to prevent them from being exposed to the Flu or any other random bugs floating around the neighborhood.
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    I've not looked at mortality, I don't think there's enough data to get a meaningful projection.

    On the other hand, as far as cases go for the Rest of the World and for Mainland China, there's a simple rule at the moment. Every eight days, add a zero after the total.

    That's a daily increase rate of 1.35 and it's held for the last five days. Before then it was 1.4.

    That gets the total number of cases to 3 million by the end of this month. I would be impressed at the efficiency of counter-measures if the Rest of the World figure stays below 4,000 by then. That's four weeks away and a raw projection would be ten times that. One can only hope that the disease will attenuate after a couple more transmissions and not remain infectious indefinitely.

    There's not much 'flu in the UK at the moment which is just as well, given the inadequate and worsening staffing level of our hospitals following the Brexit exodus of trained European staff.

    Anyway. Mortality. Let me try. The "median time from illness onset" to breathing difficulty is around 8 days. That's not from infection, it's from becoming a case. So if people are dying on the same day as the onset of breathing difficulty, and they become a counted case the day after the onset of symptoms, that would be a seven day gap from being first included in the "cases" count and showing up in the "deaths" count.

    So we shift the deaths count back seven days and compare to the cases back then? 249 dead out of 916 cases?

    Okay, I can see the logical error. Some of those counted dead were unknown cases, so I have no figure for the proportion of the dead who were counted as cases seven days previously. What I have there is a worst case mortality rate of 27%. The actual progression is several days longer, The Lancet has a good table showing reality but still gives no indication of mortality beyond its sample of 41 cases.

    The medical press overall is giving the figure as 15%.

    In either event it's a far worse figure than the 2%-4% shown in the press headlines, such as "Don't fear coronavirus as mortality rate only 3 percent: Pakistani health expert".
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    Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game!

    The watch of your vision has become reasonable today.

    England's troubles will increase until the bishops open Joanna Southcott's box.
    It’s normal. You must provoke. You must insult the belief of all monotheists. You must make fun of the belief of all monotheists.
    From the upper tier of the Leppings Lane End of the Hillsborough Stadium, I watched the events of that day unfold with horror.
    When the flowers want to oxygen and nutrition, or you’re a wedding or party planner, I will help you too much.
    Write that word in the blood

  9. #19
    Proudly humble LarsMac's Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    So far, we are still looking at something like .02% mortality.
    Influenza is approaching 7% actually down to 6.6%.
    I think that mostly standard Flu protocols should protect the majority of people from this thing.

    On the other hand, watching the reaction of the global community to this bug is not giving me a lot of warm fuzzies for how a real significant threat might be contained.
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  10. #20
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

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    The issue of mortality is an odd one. If ten percent of the people entering hospital come out as corpses then the initial temptation might be to say there's a 10% mortality, but perhaps only the most unwell people have gone in to begin with. Maybe there's ten times as many people who catch the disease but don't get admitted and just recover, in which case the mortality rate is better expressed as 1%. You pays your money and you takes your chances.
    Nullius in verba|||||||||||
    Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game!

    The watch of your vision has become reasonable today.

    England's troubles will increase until the bishops open Joanna Southcott's box.
    It’s normal. You must provoke. You must insult the belief of all monotheists. You must make fun of the belief of all monotheists.
    From the upper tier of the Leppings Lane End of the Hillsborough Stadium, I watched the events of that day unfold with horror.
    When the flowers want to oxygen and nutrition, or you’re a wedding or party planner, I will help you too much.
    Write that word in the blood

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