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Thread: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

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  1. #1
    Proudly humble LarsMac's Avatar
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    Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    The news out of China lately is that a new bug is on the horizon.
    Yesterday in the news 6 people were reported to have died. Today, it is up to 17.
    Yesterday it was pretty much contained, and today it has affected four other countries.

    An interesting item, the suspected point of origin is a seafood market where "illegal wild animal" transactions took place. I can't even imagine what that means.

    Apparently half of the current confirmed cases are health care workers who came in contact with sick individuals.

    References in the news mention the SARS epidemic of a few years back.

    While this particular outbreak may not be the end of the world, it occurs to me that eventually, we could very likely see just such an event become the final doom of mankind on the planet.

    One other note:
    President Donald Trump said the situation was "totally under control"
    Now, I'm REALLY worried.

    I decided to ad the tracking link here:

    Wuhan Coronavirus as of 2020/01/29
    Last edited by LarsMac; 02-11-2020 at 07:20 PM.
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    Supporting Member spot's Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    I'm quite impressed at the response in China, they do seem to be open this time round.

    And the British managed to test 14 contenders and signed them all unaffected. I'm not sure we'll get through the weekend that way though.
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    Senior Member magentaflame's Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    Quote Originally Posted by spot View Post
    I'm quite impressed at the response in China, they do seem to be open this time round.

    And the British managed to test 14 contenders and signed them all unaffected. I'm not sure we'll get through the weekend that way though.
    Not quite so 'Apparently' a member on a group im with, who owns a cafe put a pic up of himself wearing a face mask. He was given a box of face masks by chinese tourists (from their own stash) who told him the Chinese government had kept the epidemic under wraps for quite a few months. And it wasn't hundreds, but thousands who were sick and the death toll was much higher than had been reported. It had originally been written off as a flu virus until a particular doctor alerted everyone that something wasn't right. So not as transparent as you may guess. But still, worldwide it's such a small number/percentage of the overall population.

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    Supporting Member spot's Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    Quote Originally Posted by magentaflame View Post
    Not quite so 'Apparently' a member on a group im with, who owns a cafe put a pic up of himself wearing a face mask. He was given a box of face masks by chinese tourists (from their own stash) who told him the Chinese government had kept the epidemic under wraps for quite a few months. And it wasn't hundreds, but thousands who were sick and the death toll was much higher than had been reported. It had originally been written off as a flu virus until a particular doctor alerted everyone that something wasn't right. So not as transparent as you may guess. But still, worldwide it's such a small number/percentage of the overall population.
    I doubt an epidemic of a new virus would stay within one country for quite a few months, it's not what they do. Viruses get to airports. All the numbers from the World Health Organization point to an event near the last week of November as case 1.

    As for exterminating the virus I don't think any country is more likely to succeed at that than China, and even they can only succeed so long as no other country allows it to gain a foothold. The response there couldn't happen on anything like the same scale elsewhere, or as effectively. The population at the epicentre is undoubtedly having a hard time from the authorities as a result.

    That doesn't mean I think it can be exterminated or that this struggle is sensible. Were I asked I'd say let it happen, it's too late to win this time. The best outcome right now is that it loses potency and fizzles out. If any other country does allow it to gain a foothold then nobody, not even China, will be able to fight it out of existence.

    There are two ways we can each become resistant to this virus, as with any other virus. We can either survive it and have antibodies, or we can be vaccinated and have antibodies. At the moment we don't have any antibodies and we don't have a vaccine, so catching it and making our own is the only choice left.
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    Senior Member Bryn Mawr's Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    The British government are also saying that the danger is low as we are in a good place to control any outbreak.

    If it weren’t so serious it would be laughable.

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    Senior Member Saint_'s Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    Unfortunately, the serious outbreak seems to be right around the corner if history is correct...

    Consider the case of Captain Maclear’s rat. This interesting rodent inhabited Christmas Island, a small bit of tropical verdure some two hundred miles south of Java…

    Yet such was the luxuriance of the tropical growth that the rats had not attained such numbers as to provide competition among members of the species. The individual rats were extremely well-nourished, and even unduly fat.

    In 1903 some new disease sprang up. Because of their crowding and also probably because of the softened condition of the individuals, the rats proved universally susceptible, and soon were dying by thousands. In spite of great numbers, in spite of an abundant supply of food, in spite of a very rapid breeding rate, the species is extinct.
    - George R. Stewart. "Earth Abides"

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    Proudly humble LarsMac's Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    the latest on this is that it seems this new Coronavirus is transmittable before symptoms express.
    That means that shortly after exposure, and long before anyone knows they're sick, they are wandering about, passing through checkpoints and preparing to share their good fortune with the world in general.

    I don't know that this is going to be a major "plague" event, necessarily, but it will prove to be a major PIA for travelers for months to come.

    I share home with several people who have marginal - Compromised Immune systems, so I plan to limit my exposure to other humans for the foreseeable future.
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    Supporting Member spot's Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    Quote Originally Posted by LarsMac View Post
    I don't know that this is going to be a major "plague" event, necessarily, but it will prove to be a major PIA for travelers for months to come.
    These last couple of days I've started to think that perhaps it might. That early infectious phase is particularly nasty. I'm not convinced it's stoppable unless a mass precautionary vaccine comes on stream. I'll queue up for that one when summer arrives.

    "UK government urged to reassure public that NHS is ready for cases within days" is ominously improbable too.

    Prof Neil Ferguson, a public health expert at Imperial College, said his “best guess” was that there were 100,000 affected by the virus even though there are only 2,000 confirmed cases so far, mostly in the city of Wuhan in China where the virus first appeared.

    “Sooner or later we will get a case,” he said. “There are very large numbers of Chinese tourists across Europe right now. Unless the Chinese manage to control this, and I’m sceptical about whether that is possible, we will get cases here.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/science/...y-experts-warn
    Nullius in verba|||||||||||
    Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game!

    The watch of your vision has become reasonable today.

    England's troubles will increase until the bishops open Joanna Southcott's box.
    It’s normal. You must provoke. You must insult the belief of all monotheists. You must make fun of the belief of all monotheists.
    From the upper tier of the Leppings Lane End of the Hillsborough Stadium, I watched the events of that day unfold with horror.
    When the flowers want to oxygen and nutrition, or you’re a wedding or party planner, I will help you too much.
    Write that word in the blood

  9. #9
    Proudly humble LarsMac's Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    several countries are talking about extracting their citizens from Wuhan.
    Not that is such a good idea. They have likely already been exposed, and should probably be treated there, in my opinion.
    "Learn from the mistakes of others---you can never live long enough to make them all yourself."
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    Supporting Member spot's Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    Quote Originally Posted by LarsMac View Post
    One other note:
    President Donald Trump said the situation was "totally under control"
    Could I ask what-if?

    If there are fifty thousand deaths in America from this by polling day in November, will it increase or decrease the President's prospect of re-election?

    I can''t see him being damaged by that, but I can definitely see him being boosted if foreign peril is prominent in the mind of the electorate. It's why so many previous national leaders have engineered a war during their first term of office.
    Nullius in verba|||||||||||
    Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game!

    The watch of your vision has become reasonable today.

    England's troubles will increase until the bishops open Joanna Southcott's box.
    It’s normal. You must provoke. You must insult the belief of all monotheists. You must make fun of the belief of all monotheists.
    From the upper tier of the Leppings Lane End of the Hillsborough Stadium, I watched the events of that day unfold with horror.
    When the flowers want to oxygen and nutrition, or you’re a wedding or party planner, I will help you too much.
    Write that word in the blood

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