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Thread: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

  1. #61
    Supporting Member spot's Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    The underlying essential bit is that they've moved heaven and earth to minimize the extent of the infection and they're still balanced on winning or losing against it. If the total reported cases in mainland China is under six figures at the end of the month then they're still on top of things.

    The surface distortion is that the figures are manipulated, straightened toward truth, re-twisted, but nothing resembles an exponential rocket so far.

    I doubt any other country could have limited matters given the density of population involved. It must be costing China a fortune and if they went back to business as usual it would cost them less financially. The fact that they're fighting is moral excellence.

    There is, of course, an up side to all this. Fossil fuel production and consumption will plummet this year.
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  2. #62
    Supporting Member spot's Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    Quote Originally Posted by spot View Post
    I'm not sure I red https://www.theguardian.com/global-d...d-in-indonesia correctly. Indonesia has no cases but hasn't tested anyone?

    I threw a match on some petrol once. The effect may be similar.
    A Harvard academic has defended research suggesting a possible underreporting of coronavirus cases in Indonesia, following fierce criticism from the health minister in the world’s fourth most populous country, which insists it has no cases.

    Professor Marc Lipsitch analysed air traffic out of the Chinese city at the centre of the outbreak in China and suggested in a report last week that Indonesia might have missed cases. On Tuesday the Indonesian health minister Terawan Agus Putranto called the report “insulting” and said the country had proper testing equipment.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-marc-lipsitch
    One can only hope Indonesian health minister Terawan Agus Putranto is pilloried by an angry mob in a public square when he's eventually shown to have buried his head all this while. I don't doubt that Indonesia has proper testing equipment but I don't believe for a moment that his department has done an adequate job testing or following up contacts, nor that it will later on.

    Lipsitch, from the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at the Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, co-authored a paper that found several locations including Indonesia, Cambodia and Thailand where the number of cases were below the levels expected. “We stand by our research,” he said. “I certainly do not intend it as an insult to any country or person. The role of public health is to spot potential problems and to point them out.”
    Professor Lipsitch might not intend it as an insult, but I do.

    Elsewhere, "IOC insists Tokyo Olympics will go ahead despite coronavirus ".

    And two MPs have self-isolated after being at a conference. You'd think if anyone could expect a quick test it would be them.
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  3. #63
    Supporting Member spot's Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    This post is not a statement of fact, it's an interpretation of my silly ill-informed spreadsheet driven solely by the Johns Hopkins data. At best my comments in this thread would be fake news if they were to be taken as news rather than speculative fiction. I am not providing news, I am talking to myself.

    Bear in mind that there are only four weeks of published figures so far, and a lot of activity on the ground has made significant differences to the spread of the disease, but its clear now that the cases in mainland China have been held back to a remarkable extent. The Chinese government is going go have to make a big choice in the near future though. There's no point wrecking the economy if the end result is only a minor adjustment of the severity and effect on the disease.

    The astonishing achievement is that the extrapolated date for the millionth confirmed case in mainland China, on my graph at least, has been deferred from the last week of February to the last half of March, that's a three to five week shift. Maybe it puts the virus into a time of year when it will have more trouble spreading if it needs the present cold conditions on the ground, I can see good reasons for at least continuing to try.

    I still think one test for whether the near-term number of reported cases in mainland China is encouraging is whether the figure stays out of six figures for the remainder of this month - that's the next two weeks. It would mark a big change from the previous exponential regime.

    The less good news is that the reported cases for the rest of the world are still moving upward at a similar rate, just four weeks behind mainland China's. Since I have absolutely no faith at all that the rest of the world is going to invest even a fraction of the economic hurt that China has volunteered for, I don't see that situation improving at all.
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    Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game!

    The watch of your vision has become reasonable today.

    England's troubles will increase until the bishops open Joanna Southcott's box.
    It’s normal. You must provoke. You must insult the belief of all monotheists. You must make fun of the belief of all monotheists.
    From the upper tier of the Leppings Lane End of the Hillsborough Stadium, I watched the events of that day unfold with horror.
    When the flowers want to oxygen and nutrition, or you’re a wedding or party planner, I will help you too much.
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  4. #64
    Senior Member Bryn Mawr's Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    If you take out the cases on the cruise liner where does that put the RoW figures?

    From a pool of less than four thousand people having an infection rate of one in ten gives them half of the RoW cases.

    Whether it’s really impossible to isolate patients in that environment or whether they are handling it badly it is a massive distortion of the figures that, even in the short term, is self limiting.

  5. #65
    Senior Member Saint_'s Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    Here's a projection for you, from what I can see the Death Rate is approximately 5.7%

    If everyone in the United Kingdom got it (66.44 Million), that wold be 3,787,000 dead.

    If everyone in the United States got it (325.2 million), that would be 18, 536,400 dead.

    But let's shoot for the moon... (as in we'll be living there if a plague hits us worse than this!)

    If everyone in the world gets it (7.7 Billion...amazing, isn't it?), that would be 438,900,000 dead.

    A half-billion people dead.


    That sure would break the Spanish Flu's record of 18 million, wouldn't it?

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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    That is, I suspect, an overestimate. I think if you factor in more and more experience of treating the disease you'll divide everything there by a factor of ten. Or, who knows, it might go away of its own accord, but I'd not hold my breath waiting.

    Will it spread worldwide? Probably it will.

    You did have a civil war once, you know. This might be a similar scale to that, and you got over it. At least for once it's not your politicians or police who will decide who ends up dead.
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    Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game!

    The watch of your vision has become reasonable today.

    England's troubles will increase until the bishops open Joanna Southcott's box.
    It’s normal. You must provoke. You must insult the belief of all monotheists. You must make fun of the belief of all monotheists.
    From the upper tier of the Leppings Lane End of the Hillsborough Stadium, I watched the events of that day unfold with horror.
    When the flowers want to oxygen and nutrition, or you’re a wedding or party planner, I will help you too much.
    Write that word in the blood

  7. #67
    Supporting Member spot's Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bryn Mawr View Post
    Whether it’s really impossible to isolate patients in that environment or whether they are handling it badly it is a massive distortion of the figures that, even in the short term, is self limiting.
    You're quite right, but you're looking at just one source of distortion. The fever checking of international travellers at airports must be having a huge effect in the other direction too, and if the disease fires up inside any country those checks will disappear from the equation locally. I'm not going to try to calculate what can only be unknowns but I do suggest there are huge variations affecting the Rest of the World figures.
    Nullius in verba|||||||||||
    Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game!

    The watch of your vision has become reasonable today.

    England's troubles will increase until the bishops open Joanna Southcott's box.
    It’s normal. You must provoke. You must insult the belief of all monotheists. You must make fun of the belief of all monotheists.
    From the upper tier of the Leppings Lane End of the Hillsborough Stadium, I watched the events of that day unfold with horror.
    When the flowers want to oxygen and nutrition, or you’re a wedding or party planner, I will help you too much.
    Write that word in the blood

  8. #68
    Senior Member Bryn Mawr's Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    Quote Originally Posted by Saint_ View Post
    Here's a projection for you, from what I can see the Death Rate is approximately 5.7%

    If everyone in the United Kingdom got it (66.44 Million), that wold be 3,787,000 dead.

    If everyone in the United States got it (325.2 million), that would be 18, 536,400 dead.

    But let's shoot for the moon... (as in we'll be living there if a plague hits us worse than this!)

    If everyone in the world gets it (7.7 Billion...amazing, isn't it?), that would be 438,900,000 dead.

    A half-billion people dead.


    That sure would break the Spanish Flu's record of 18 million, wouldn't it?
    It’s worse than that and it’s not as bad.

    It’s worse than that in that it’s 5% of the total cases but the majority of those cases are still in progress and some of those who are still ill will also die. The current death rate within completed cases (dead plus recovered) is 15% which, if continued, would triple your figures.

    It’s not as bad in that these figures include the first couple of months where they did not know what they were dealing with and were using the wrong treatment so the figures are not representative of the current situation. If you look at the data series the d / (d+r) figure has been dropping consistently.

  9. #69
    Supporting Member spot's Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

    I'm not prone to criticizing, but this Diamond Princess farrago was plainly not well managed. 600+ positive tests?

    From the start, experts raised questions about quarantine on the ship. Passengers weren’t confined to their rooms until 5 February. The day before, as officials screened them, onboard events continued, including dances, quiz games and an exercise class, one passenger said.

    A number of readers have asked about the air conditioning employed on the ship, and whether this could have contributed to the spread of the virus.

    Previously health authorities said the air conditioning was not a problem. However, Princess Cruises’ executive vice-president, Rai Caluori ,said that, “in an abundance of caution”, the amount of fresh air going through the system was maximised.

    Dr Richard Darwood, a medical director and specialist in travel medicine, told Metro.co.uk: “If air is being ducted between one part of the ship to another then that could possibly be a factor.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...08e13324745f63
    The cruise ship industry may well find bookings down for the rest of the year. Given the inanity of the entire concept, that wouldn't bother me in the slightest.

    South Korea confirmed 20 new cases in the country, taking the total infected to 51.
    So. We can now start saying pandemic? We can agree the South Korean authorities aren't quite in the same league as the Chinese when it comes to sorting out their local outbreak?

    The coronavirus outbreak has temporarily reduced China’s CO2 emissions by a quarter, according to analysis by Carbon Brief.

    Electricity demand and industrial output remain far below usual levels after authorities introduced stringent measures to stop the spread of the disease.

    Daily data of coal use at power stations is at a four-year low, while oil refinery operating rates in Shandong province are at the lowest level since 2015, the report said.
    They're not doing things by halves over there.
    Nullius in verba|||||||||||
    Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game!

    The watch of your vision has become reasonable today.

    England's troubles will increase until the bishops open Joanna Southcott's box.
    It’s normal. You must provoke. You must insult the belief of all monotheists. You must make fun of the belief of all monotheists.
    From the upper tier of the Leppings Lane End of the Hillsborough Stadium, I watched the events of that day unfold with horror.
    When the flowers want to oxygen and nutrition, or you’re a wedding or party planner, I will help you too much.
    Write that word in the blood

  10. #70
    Supporting Member spot's Avatar
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    Re: Not with a Bang, but with a Sneeze?

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    And indeed since the reset of the mainland China reported cases, the number of reported cases has dropped daily. That's the sixth consecutive day downward. A very impressive achievement.
    Nullius in verba|||||||||||
    Who has a spare two minutes to play in this month's FG Trivia game!

    The watch of your vision has become reasonable today.

    England's troubles will increase until the bishops open Joanna Southcott's box.
    It’s normal. You must provoke. You must insult the belief of all monotheists. You must make fun of the belief of all monotheists.
    From the upper tier of the Leppings Lane End of the Hillsborough Stadium, I watched the events of that day unfold with horror.
    When the flowers want to oxygen and nutrition, or you’re a wedding or party planner, I will help you too much.
    Write that word in the blood

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