Jester;858430 wrote: Does your personal pocketbook match up to the current dismal report of the economy?
I'm getting to where I think the doom and gloom of the current economy is no more than a political ploy to unseat the incumbants.
Other than gas, I don't see much change in the economy on a day to day basis, and gas has been steadily increasing for the past 40 years.
OK, I am not in America but I do work in the industry and receive the weekly reports from an impartial, non-political, Chief Economist.
Do you honestly not see evidence of a collapse in the housing market with over a years supply of unsold houses, a squeeze on credit approvals and a turnaround in employment with shrinking payroll numbers?
Certainly, the reports tell of an economy entering recession with a balance of trade deficit approaching $70Bn per Month.
Are the Democrats really so powerful that they can arrange all of this just to influence the vote?
Politics and the Economy
Politics and the Economy
I can only speak for the Irish economy, but the sentiment is certainly bad on this side of the water and everyone here knows that the rest of 2008 and 2009 are going to be much tighter years for a lot of people than the last decade which has all been boom, generally as well there is a bit of a slowdown in the real economy and I was at a meeting last week where I heard about the research and funding cutbacks that the government are already bringing in, and the conspicuous consumption seems to be a little down on previous years. Thats what I am seeing anyway. I think everywhere in the western world is having difficulties at the moment, and they will for a while, and I certainly don't think that this was an invented thing, its quite real, though some of the media may be over-hyping the reality, but they do that with everything nowadays don't they?
"We are never so happy, never so unhappy, as we imagine"
Le Rochefoucauld.
"A smack in the face settles all arguments, then you can move on kid."
My dad 1986.
Le Rochefoucauld.
"A smack in the face settles all arguments, then you can move on kid."
My dad 1986.
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Politics and the Economy
There is no housing market collapse. There is no national housing market. All housing markets are local. Interest rates came too low and some people overextended themselves, like a kid who notices a low-hanging apple limb and just can't resist grabbing all he can. The correction is simply natural consequences for poor decisions.
On a personal level ... I'm alright. Got a couple extra bucks if somebody really needs it.
On a personal level ... I'm alright. Got a couple extra bucks if somebody really needs it.
Politics and the Economy
Jester;858586 wrote: Can you tell me how the economy affects you now, and what chnges will affect you later? I know you work in the science industry, will the shrinking funds lead to a job loss for you?
Well from my own perspective, the work I am doing is covered at the moment by funds and should be fine until 2010 until I complete my doctoral degree. But yes, there would be an impact as I am in front-line research which is paid for essentially by the government, and its usually very vunerable to budget constraints if the government start worrying about money, which is why I always get annoyed when the government starts throwing money at the financial idiots who created this problem in the first place, but seriously start penny pinching on the actual productive areas, but then I suppose I am biased. We have our own set of circumstances here anyway, which means there was always going to be an economic correction, but I guess what has happened globally will mean it will just take us a few more years to recover than it normally would have.
Well from my own perspective, the work I am doing is covered at the moment by funds and should be fine until 2010 until I complete my doctoral degree. But yes, there would be an impact as I am in front-line research which is paid for essentially by the government, and its usually very vunerable to budget constraints if the government start worrying about money, which is why I always get annoyed when the government starts throwing money at the financial idiots who created this problem in the first place, but seriously start penny pinching on the actual productive areas, but then I suppose I am biased. We have our own set of circumstances here anyway, which means there was always going to be an economic correction, but I guess what has happened globally will mean it will just take us a few more years to recover than it normally would have.
"We are never so happy, never so unhappy, as we imagine"
Le Rochefoucauld.
"A smack in the face settles all arguments, then you can move on kid."
My dad 1986.
Le Rochefoucauld.
"A smack in the face settles all arguments, then you can move on kid."
My dad 1986.
Politics and the Economy
Jester;858584 wrote: Thats kinda what Im looking at and exploring here with this thread, I see all that being talked about, what I dont see is it actually affecting very many people. Thats what I'm trying to acertain.
So far I feel the gas crunch with paying more to keep my trucks in diesel fuel. I have benifited fomr the housing price fall cause I did not believe I coudl have made a huge payment like they wanted, which was really me paying more in up front interest, why in the world would I do that? Thats just stupid.
Im waiting for the effects of this so called recession and Im not seeing the reality of it.
How much of the US do you regularly see to keep a check on? If it is just your local area then you've no handle on the economy as a whole.
To see that you need to look at the national statistics for inflation be sector (including factory gate and wage inflation), payroll numbers by industry, import / export figures, etc. Then there are the leading indicators like the PMI and other surveys.
The effects you are looking for are all trailing indicators - by the time you see them you are in the thick of it. What is being reported are the leading indicators that are a very good measure of what is to come.
So far I feel the gas crunch with paying more to keep my trucks in diesel fuel. I have benifited fomr the housing price fall cause I did not believe I coudl have made a huge payment like they wanted, which was really me paying more in up front interest, why in the world would I do that? Thats just stupid.
Im waiting for the effects of this so called recession and Im not seeing the reality of it.
How much of the US do you regularly see to keep a check on? If it is just your local area then you've no handle on the economy as a whole.
To see that you need to look at the national statistics for inflation be sector (including factory gate and wage inflation), payroll numbers by industry, import / export figures, etc. Then there are the leading indicators like the PMI and other surveys.
The effects you are looking for are all trailing indicators - by the time you see them you are in the thick of it. What is being reported are the leading indicators that are a very good measure of what is to come.
Politics and the Economy
All I can offer here is a post looking at my views from a womans point of view that does the shopping.
The price of food in my Supermarket is soaring.I look at the price increases and some I just can't believe.For example I buy the cheapest bread I can for my geese and ducks.I paid 28p a few months ago then it went to 37p, this week it went to 48p.A certain cake I used to buy was 99p now has soared to £1.50 and so it goes on.You do have to shop around of course but then if you drive you are useing petrol which is over £5 a gallon now and is getting more expensive by the day.I have already said on another thread that being self employed I went to a warehouse yesterday to buy some stock.I was shocked at some of the increases and have been told it will get worse.I cant charge any more because of the pound shops over here.But now some of the items I sell Im earning so little on that I am reviewing my situation.Its not easy at the moment that I do know and wonder how people who have huge debts are managing.
The price of food in my Supermarket is soaring.I look at the price increases and some I just can't believe.For example I buy the cheapest bread I can for my geese and ducks.I paid 28p a few months ago then it went to 37p, this week it went to 48p.A certain cake I used to buy was 99p now has soared to £1.50 and so it goes on.You do have to shop around of course but then if you drive you are useing petrol which is over £5 a gallon now and is getting more expensive by the day.I have already said on another thread that being self employed I went to a warehouse yesterday to buy some stock.I was shocked at some of the increases and have been told it will get worse.I cant charge any more because of the pound shops over here.But now some of the items I sell Im earning so little on that I am reviewing my situation.Its not easy at the moment that I do know and wonder how people who have huge debts are managing.
Women are bitchy and predictable ...men are not and that's the key to knowing the truth.
Politics and the Economy
Th rise of fuel is beginning to have a major effect. Not only are food prices rising but the cost of transporting it around is going through the roof. We have housing shortage where I live so house prices aren't falling though they have become static. Biggest problem is that now far harder for first time buyers to get a mortgage. Many are in a situation where they pay more in rent than a mortgage would cost but pay so much in rent they can't save enough for a deposit. That should eventually bring prices down except for the aforementioned housing shortage. They do get help withb rent but who benefits most from that? They're starting to build social housing again as there is a major shortage, of low rent properties. maybe this time they won't sell them all off although had actually been a major boost to the economy.
The way our govt relies so much on indirect taxation (on petrol etc) hits lower incomes the most. Things like high car road tax on high co2 producing cars hit people on low incomes that but older bigger family cars the most-not the yuppy tractor drivers. If you need a car to get to work you need a car. £40 to fill up rising to over £50 hurts on a low income. They talk about powering taxes but just stick it to us somewhere else and kid themselves we won't notice or realise who is to blame.
Same old story. When things are tight the well off stay well off the rich get richer and the poor are stuffed. Meanwhile our MP's vote themselves an above inflation pay rise, fiddle their expenses and wonder why people don't trust politicians any more while lamenting the decline in moral values in everybody else.
The way our govt relies so much on indirect taxation (on petrol etc) hits lower incomes the most. Things like high car road tax on high co2 producing cars hit people on low incomes that but older bigger family cars the most-not the yuppy tractor drivers. If you need a car to get to work you need a car. £40 to fill up rising to over £50 hurts on a low income. They talk about powering taxes but just stick it to us somewhere else and kid themselves we won't notice or realise who is to blame.
Same old story. When things are tight the well off stay well off the rich get richer and the poor are stuffed. Meanwhile our MP's vote themselves an above inflation pay rise, fiddle their expenses and wonder why people don't trust politicians any more while lamenting the decline in moral values in everybody else.
Politics and the Economy
gmc;858745 wrote: Th rise of fuel is beginning to have a major effect. Not only are food prices rising but the cost of transporting it around is going through the roof. We have housing shortage where I live so house prices aren't falling though they have become static. Biggest problem is that now far harder for first time buyers to get a mortgage. Many are in a situation where they pay more in rent than a mortgage would cost but pay so much in rent they can't save enough for a deposit. That should eventually bring prices down except for the aforementioned housing shortage. They do get help withb rent but who benefits most from that? They're starting to build social housing again as there is a major shortage, of low rent properties. maybe this time they won't sell them all off although had actually been a major boost to the economy.
The way our govt relies so much on indirect taxation (on petrol etc) hits lower incomes the most. Things like high car road tax on high co2 producing cars hit people on low incomes that but older bigger family cars the most-not the yuppy tractor drivers. If you need a car to get to work you need a car. £40 to fill up rising to over £50 hurts on a low income. They talk about powering taxes but just stick it to us somewhere else and kid themselves we won't notice or realise who is to blame.
Same old story. When things are tight the well off stay well off the rich get richer and the poor are stuffed. Meanwhile our MP's vote themselves an above inflation pay rise, fiddle their expenses and wonder why people don't trust politicians any more while lamenting the decline in moral values in everybody else.Could not agree more,well said.
The way our govt relies so much on indirect taxation (on petrol etc) hits lower incomes the most. Things like high car road tax on high co2 producing cars hit people on low incomes that but older bigger family cars the most-not the yuppy tractor drivers. If you need a car to get to work you need a car. £40 to fill up rising to over £50 hurts on a low income. They talk about powering taxes but just stick it to us somewhere else and kid themselves we won't notice or realise who is to blame.
Same old story. When things are tight the well off stay well off the rich get richer and the poor are stuffed. Meanwhile our MP's vote themselves an above inflation pay rise, fiddle their expenses and wonder why people don't trust politicians any more while lamenting the decline in moral values in everybody else.Could not agree more,well said.
Women are bitchy and predictable ...men are not and that's the key to knowing the truth.
Politics and the Economy
Jester;859493 wrote: Thank you!
I checked my local maket price lists and found little change, I grabbed an old newspaper advertisment from two years ago and the price of a can of corn was exactly the same, the price of a london broil steak was exactly the same, batteries have gone up, but only by 12 cents. bread seems higher but my wife says she just buys down to a less expensive brand when she feels it starts to get high.
I grabbed out two grocery lists and started comparing prices, these lists are seperated by about 8 months.
I went down the list and checked prices of the same items that we bought from both lists.
Milk: $4.07/gal (Aug 07) $4.11/Gal (May 08)
Bread $1.99/loaf $2.09/loaf (same exact brand)
Bananas $1.54/lb $1.51/lb
Apples $1.18/lb $.98/lb (same exact type)
Pizza Rolls $4.20/Package $4.20/Package
Toilet paper $7.49 $7.49
Symphony Chocolate $1.79 $1.79
So milk went up slightly, bread went up, bananas went down, apples went down... but the over all increase? ... $22.26 for Aug 07 and $22.17 for May 08which means it was a decrease in price for the same items by 9 cents over all.
For my local market I'm just not seeing the affects of price increases yet.
I called my brother the other night and discussed this with him at length, he's smack dab in the middle of the US. His take was that fruit prices are up, but thats a normal occurance in the winter, and the summer glut of fruits and veggies hasn't hit yet but every kind of produce back home drops in the summer.
The exact job that you're trying to do with your shopping lists is done nationally on a wider range of goods as the retail price index and forms the basis of the inflation figures. In fact, there are several different lists of items depending on the use to be made of the figure produced - for example, one set includes fuel and mortgages whilst another doesn't.
The trouble with a shop door price measure is that it is a trailing indicator - by the time inflation rises the damage is done. You need to look at the leading indicators in order to predict what is happening to the economy and this is what is causing the reports in the papers.
I checked my local maket price lists and found little change, I grabbed an old newspaper advertisment from two years ago and the price of a can of corn was exactly the same, the price of a london broil steak was exactly the same, batteries have gone up, but only by 12 cents. bread seems higher but my wife says she just buys down to a less expensive brand when she feels it starts to get high.
I grabbed out two grocery lists and started comparing prices, these lists are seperated by about 8 months.
I went down the list and checked prices of the same items that we bought from both lists.
Milk: $4.07/gal (Aug 07) $4.11/Gal (May 08)
Bread $1.99/loaf $2.09/loaf (same exact brand)
Bananas $1.54/lb $1.51/lb
Apples $1.18/lb $.98/lb (same exact type)
Pizza Rolls $4.20/Package $4.20/Package
Toilet paper $7.49 $7.49
Symphony Chocolate $1.79 $1.79
So milk went up slightly, bread went up, bananas went down, apples went down... but the over all increase? ... $22.26 for Aug 07 and $22.17 for May 08which means it was a decrease in price for the same items by 9 cents over all.
For my local market I'm just not seeing the affects of price increases yet.
I called my brother the other night and discussed this with him at length, he's smack dab in the middle of the US. His take was that fruit prices are up, but thats a normal occurance in the winter, and the summer glut of fruits and veggies hasn't hit yet but every kind of produce back home drops in the summer.
The exact job that you're trying to do with your shopping lists is done nationally on a wider range of goods as the retail price index and forms the basis of the inflation figures. In fact, there are several different lists of items depending on the use to be made of the figure produced - for example, one set includes fuel and mortgages whilst another doesn't.
The trouble with a shop door price measure is that it is a trailing indicator - by the time inflation rises the damage is done. You need to look at the leading indicators in order to predict what is happening to the economy and this is what is causing the reports in the papers.
Politics and the Economy
Jester;859493 wrote: Thank you!
I checked my local maket price lists and found little change, I grabbed an old newspaper advertisment from two years ago and the price of a can of corn was exactly the same, the price of a london broil steak was exactly the same, batteries have gone up, but only by 12 cents. bread seems higher but my wife says she just buys down to a less expensive brand when she feels it starts to get high.
I grabbed out two grocery lists and started comparing prices, these lists are seperated by about 8 months.
I went down the list and checked prices of the same items that we bought from both lists.
Milk: $4.07/gal (Aug 07) $4.11/Gal (May 08)
Bread $1.99/loaf $2.09/loaf (same exact brand)
Bananas $1.54/lb $1.51/lb
Apples $1.18/lb $.98/lb (same exact type)
Pizza Rolls $4.20/Package $4.20/Package
Toilet paper $7.49 $7.49
Symphony Chocolate $1.79 $1.79
So milk went up slightly, bread went up, bananas went down, apples went down... but the over all increase? ... $22.26 for Aug 07 and $22.17 for May 08which means it was a decrease in price for the same items by 9 cents over all.
For my local market I'm just not seeing the affects of price increases yet.
I called my brother the other night and discussed this with him at length, he's smack dab in the middle of the US. His take was that fruit prices are up, but thats a normal occurance in the winter, and the summer glut of fruits and veggies hasn't hit yet but every kind of produce back home drops in the summer.
Give it time. What about the cost of driving to the store? The cost of getting the goods in to the store for the hauliers. Oil prices affect the cost of plastics-not immediately but in a few months it will start feeding through in higher costs to produce, higher costs in fuel for the machinery in factories and on the farms means production scosts have gone up and they either have to take a hit on their profits or put the prices up.
The chemicals you mention how are they made any oil based
Th credit crunch means businesses find it harder to get working overdrafts if they need one-never mind that base rates have come down-don't know about the US bit here the banks aren't passing it on. Anyone coming off a fixed rate taken out two or three years ago is looking at a 20% hike in mortgage costs
With us it's petrol costs, gas and electricity costs that have had an almost immediate impact, from around £40 to fill a tank its now about £55-or put another way it costs 25% more to get to work than it used to. (feeling lazy can't be bothered working out the US equivalent)
What on earth is pizza roll?
I checked my local maket price lists and found little change, I grabbed an old newspaper advertisment from two years ago and the price of a can of corn was exactly the same, the price of a london broil steak was exactly the same, batteries have gone up, but only by 12 cents. bread seems higher but my wife says she just buys down to a less expensive brand when she feels it starts to get high.
I grabbed out two grocery lists and started comparing prices, these lists are seperated by about 8 months.
I went down the list and checked prices of the same items that we bought from both lists.
Milk: $4.07/gal (Aug 07) $4.11/Gal (May 08)
Bread $1.99/loaf $2.09/loaf (same exact brand)
Bananas $1.54/lb $1.51/lb
Apples $1.18/lb $.98/lb (same exact type)
Pizza Rolls $4.20/Package $4.20/Package
Toilet paper $7.49 $7.49
Symphony Chocolate $1.79 $1.79
So milk went up slightly, bread went up, bananas went down, apples went down... but the over all increase? ... $22.26 for Aug 07 and $22.17 for May 08which means it was a decrease in price for the same items by 9 cents over all.
For my local market I'm just not seeing the affects of price increases yet.
I called my brother the other night and discussed this with him at length, he's smack dab in the middle of the US. His take was that fruit prices are up, but thats a normal occurance in the winter, and the summer glut of fruits and veggies hasn't hit yet but every kind of produce back home drops in the summer.
Give it time. What about the cost of driving to the store? The cost of getting the goods in to the store for the hauliers. Oil prices affect the cost of plastics-not immediately but in a few months it will start feeding through in higher costs to produce, higher costs in fuel for the machinery in factories and on the farms means production scosts have gone up and they either have to take a hit on their profits or put the prices up.
The chemicals you mention how are they made any oil based
Th credit crunch means businesses find it harder to get working overdrafts if they need one-never mind that base rates have come down-don't know about the US bit here the banks aren't passing it on. Anyone coming off a fixed rate taken out two or three years ago is looking at a 20% hike in mortgage costs
With us it's petrol costs, gas and electricity costs that have had an almost immediate impact, from around £40 to fill a tank its now about £55-or put another way it costs 25% more to get to work than it used to. (feeling lazy can't be bothered working out the US equivalent)
What on earth is pizza roll?
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Politics and the Economy
gmc;860345 wrote: What on earth is pizza roll?
You're probably better off not knowing.
You're probably better off not knowing.
Politics and the Economy
Jester;858430 wrote: Does your personal pocketbook match up to the current dismal report of the economy?
I'm getting to where I think the doom and gloom of the current economy is no more than a political ploy to unseat the incumbants.
Other than gas, I don't see much change in the economy on a day to day basis, and gas has been steadily increasing for the past 40 years.
My personal pocketbook can handle the current economy, but as one who does the bulk of the grocery shopping, I gotta say, it must be tough on family's with kids. Big, big increases in just the last 6 months in basic food stuffs like milk, bread, eggs. There are over 1,200 homes in this area alone that are in foreclosure and home prices are expected to drop another 18% in the next year. Of course, California has always been a bit over sold and over priced in my opinion. Truckers having to pay $1,000 to fill up their semi's translates into higher prices for everything moved by truck. Yes, it's a regional thing, but their are enough regions and people affected to say that the economy ain't doing so good.
I'm getting to where I think the doom and gloom of the current economy is no more than a political ploy to unseat the incumbants.
Other than gas, I don't see much change in the economy on a day to day basis, and gas has been steadily increasing for the past 40 years.
My personal pocketbook can handle the current economy, but as one who does the bulk of the grocery shopping, I gotta say, it must be tough on family's with kids. Big, big increases in just the last 6 months in basic food stuffs like milk, bread, eggs. There are over 1,200 homes in this area alone that are in foreclosure and home prices are expected to drop another 18% in the next year. Of course, California has always been a bit over sold and over priced in my opinion. Truckers having to pay $1,000 to fill up their semi's translates into higher prices for everything moved by truck. Yes, it's a regional thing, but their are enough regions and people affected to say that the economy ain't doing so good.
Politics and the Economy
Jester;860538 wrote: I'm reading up now!
But, off the cuff I have to say I been hearing the doom and gloom of the economy for the past 8 years, but so far Ive seen no real down to my level impact.
Me thinks its a political issue and less of a real issue. Im waiting for the impact, aint seen it yet.
From whom? The economics reports have been very positive about the US economy up until now - they've only turned in the last three months.
One of the big factors being taken into account is the downturn in consumer confidence. Consumer spending makes up about 70% of the US economy and, up until now, has been growing at a healthy rate. It has now stalled.
Another factor is the non-farm payroll. Up until this year it has been growing at an average of 180,000 per month - now it is dropping (this month was a good one - it only dropped by 20,000 which is well below recent average).
Urban housing prices dropping at 11% pa and rural prices dropping by 3% pa - the list goes on.
As always, these are national figures and might not reflect the situation in your particular area.
But, off the cuff I have to say I been hearing the doom and gloom of the economy for the past 8 years, but so far Ive seen no real down to my level impact.
Me thinks its a political issue and less of a real issue. Im waiting for the impact, aint seen it yet.
From whom? The economics reports have been very positive about the US economy up until now - they've only turned in the last three months.
One of the big factors being taken into account is the downturn in consumer confidence. Consumer spending makes up about 70% of the US economy and, up until now, has been growing at a healthy rate. It has now stalled.
Another factor is the non-farm payroll. Up until this year it has been growing at an average of 180,000 per month - now it is dropping (this month was a good one - it only dropped by 20,000 which is well below recent average).
Urban housing prices dropping at 11% pa and rural prices dropping by 3% pa - the list goes on.
As always, these are national figures and might not reflect the situation in your particular area.
Politics and the Economy
Another point to make is supply and demand.
If your economy is based around cowrie shells because they're rare and in short supply and someone finds a beach full of them then you're in trouble with massive inflation.
We're no longer tied to the Gold Standard, therefore the value of currency floats free. The rate at which the US is printing dollar bills and flooding both the local economy and the world banking system with them makes inflation (and therefore recession) fairly inevitable.
No economy can print its way out of trouble - print more bills and the ones you have are worth less. (Note - two words not one).
If your economy is based around cowrie shells because they're rare and in short supply and someone finds a beach full of them then you're in trouble with massive inflation.
We're no longer tied to the Gold Standard, therefore the value of currency floats free. The rate at which the US is printing dollar bills and flooding both the local economy and the world banking system with them makes inflation (and therefore recession) fairly inevitable.
No economy can print its way out of trouble - print more bills and the ones you have are worth less. (Note - two words not one).