The Presidency - One week to go

Post by **spot** » Mon Oct 27, 2008 8:04 pm

So, make your call. Drop the partisan stuff, who's going to win?

Is there going to be a major difference between exit polls and declared results this time?

Will that be due to people feeling guilty at the vote they just cast? It happened in the UK in 1992 when people couldn't bring themselves to admit to voting Conservative, the papers called the election for a hung parliament and then we woke up to an absolute majority of 21 seats for John Major. It could happen in the US that way.

Are any electronic voting machines with no sight-verified paper audit trail being used this time? Anywhere else in the world, Americans would laugh hard at the election-fixing potential of that technology, but when it's in their own back yard for some reason they think it's blemish-free.

I reckon Senator Obama has a rock-solid core of 183 Electoral Votes to Senator McCain's rock-solid core of 163 Electoral Votes.

That means the best possible landslide for Senator Obama is 375:163 (an Electoral College majority of 212) and for Senator McCain is 355:183 (majority 172)

Here's my prediction. Assuming that Senator McCain wins Florida he stands a faint chance: if he can then win all of Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire and Colorado he can win the election. If he loses even one of those, much less Florida, then Senator Obama wins.

Putting that the other way about, I think if Senator Obama wins even one out of Florida, Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire or Colorado then he's the new President of the USA.

I'll put a number on it, I think Senator Obama will win 325:213, a majority of 112 Electoral College votes.

If Senator McCain manages to lose Florida then it's a complete collapse for him, and Senator Obama could win by as much as 400:138, a majority of 262 Electoral College votes. The bits of what I termed Senator McCain's core rock-solid support which might slip are those which voted for George Wallace in the 1960s. Who knows, maybe voter registration's finally caught on round those parts by now.

What I've used to get to that analysis is all at http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americ ... 693060.stm and http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crysta ... atemap.php

Lon · Post by **Lon** » Mon Oct 27, 2008 8:06 pm

Obama by a LANDSLIDE

Post by **spot** » Mon Oct 27, 2008 8:18 pm

Lon;1037400 wrote: Obama by a LANDSLIDE

I tried so hard not to say that!

Post by **spot** » Mon Oct 27, 2008 8:41 pm

fuzzy butt;1037424 wrote: Obama (that's if he gets that far !!! I hear two more people have been arrested for conspiring to kill him.

along with 102 other blacks.)

My command of English may be failing as the years advance but run that by me again - two more people and 102 other blacks have been arrested? Even at the height of segregationism such a sentence would have been rare!

Perhaps I should find a newspaper.

Odie · Post by **Odie** » Mon Oct 27, 2008 8:45 pm

Obama will win for sure.

Lon · Post by **Lon** » Mon Oct 27, 2008 8:57 pm

spot;1037429 wrote: My command of English may be failing as the years advance but run that by me again - two more people and 102 other blacks have been arrested? Even at the height of segregationism such a sentence would have been rare!

Perhaps I should find a newspaper.

The ATF folks picked up some Nazi Skinheads that were planning on robbing a gun shop, planning to kill 102 blacks at a school and kill Barak. I think the combined IQ of these idiots is 30.

Post by **Oscar Namechange** » Mon Oct 27, 2008 10:01 pm

fuzzy butt;1037424 wrote: Obama (that's if he gets that far !!! I hear two more people have been arrested for conspiring to kill him.

along with 102 other blacks.)

If there is such over-whelming support for Obama... then are British press reports that America is bracing itself for anti-black riots true???????

Post by **Oscar Namechange** » Mon Oct 27, 2008 10:03 pm

Lon;1037436 wrote: The ATF folks picked up some Nazi Skinheads that were planning on robbing a gun shop, planning to kill 102 blacks at a school and kill Barak. I think the combined IQ of these idiots is 30.

A little like the iq of the two twats that have just been arrested for plotting to kill Tony Blair....... ho hum.... if only

devist8me · Post by **devist8me** » Tue Oct 28, 2008 11:42 am

spot;1037397 wrote: So, make your call. Drop the partisan stuff, who's going to win?

Even though I don't like it, Obama is going to probably win.

However, I have heard some people talking about how some TV channels and web sites want me to believe that Obama is going to win, so that even though I am voting for McCain, I won't take the time to go vote...because obama has it by a landslide. I'm not buying it though, I'll be voting. Just like everyone else should btw!!!

WonderWendy3 · Post by **WonderWendy3** » Tue Oct 28, 2008 12:10 pm

devist8me;1037935 wrote: Even though I don't like it, Obama is going to probably win.

However, I have heard some people talking about how some TV channels and web sites want me to believe that Obama is going to win, so that even though I am voting for McCain, I won't take the time to go vote...because obama has it by a landslide. I'm not buying it though, I'll be voting. Just like everyone else should btw!!!

Amen Sista!

I don't buy it...the media has been "Obama happy" since day one and I'm sick of it. I'm sure that 2 years ago they said he was going to win, its because that is what they want. I really hope he doesn't win. I guess there isn't anything I can do other than vote and pray like a mad woman that America comes to their senses.

devist8me · Post by **devist8me** » Tue Oct 28, 2008 12:15 pm

WonderWendy3;1037959 wrote: Amen Sista!

I don't buy it...the media has been "Obama happy" since day one and I'm sick of it.

I'm sick of it too. I agree, he is an excellent speaker, but good grief!

Post by **spot** » Tue Oct 28, 2008 12:31 pm

I spent an afternoon in mid-2006 reading up on him and being impressed. I think I mentioned doing it at the time here. So yes, he's been noticeably prominent for quite a while, I don't usually read up on Senators.

911 · Post by **911** » Tue Oct 28, 2008 12:36 pm

Right there with you two, Wendy and Devist8.

We have become a country afraid of themselves in so many ways, that to prove to the rest of the world who we are, we'll do anything, even elect someone like Obama.

What change? My money to those who refuse to work? Middle class? Or middle class with children? Don't get me wrong, I love me some chilluns but every political campaign in my state has been peppered with "We're raising taxes for the children"! Gheesh, by now they should all be in golden desks and each have their own laptop.

What about me? No children, happy with my life, comfortably ready for retirement, health benefits, a house paid for and ready to enjoy the rest of my life. So, Obama promises me $5000,. . . FROM WHERE?

Don't berate me about health insurance, there are plenty of jobs where I work, come on down and get in on the good stuff. Twenty-five year retirment, health benefits, free meds, retirement, holidays, annual, sick and comp days. Please!

Tell those that want something for nothing to vote for Obama. But it won't last. In this country if Santa Claus was running and promised every day would be Christmas, even the Muslims would vote for him.:-5

WonderWendy3 · Post by **WonderWendy3** » Tue Oct 28, 2008 9:23 pm

911;1037980 wrote: Right there with you two, Wendy and Devist8.

We have become a country afraid of themselves in so many ways, that to prove to the rest of the world who we are, we'll do anything, even elect someone like Obama.

What change? My money to those who refuse to work? Middle class? Or middle class with children? Don't get me wrong, I love me some chilluns but every political campaign in my state has been peppered with "We're raising taxes for the children"! Gheesh, by now they should all be in golden desks and each have their own laptop.

What about me? No children, happy with my life, comfortably ready for retirement, health benefits, a house paid for and ready to enjoy the rest of my life. So, Obama promises me $5000,. . . FROM WHERE?

Don't berate me about health insurance, there are plenty of jobs where I work, come on down and get in on the good stuff. Twenty-five year retirment, health benefits, free meds, retirement, holidays, annual, sick and comp days. Please!

Tell those that want something for nothing to vote for Obama. But it won't last. In this country if Santa Claus was running and promised every day would be Christmas, even the Muslims would vote for him.:-5

Good post...I agree....I think its interesting that both sides have their opponent supporters scared...my opinion is that Obama IS to be feared...his track record of being a senator and friends with terriorists who hate the US....should make people think a bit harder....any man that won't salute to the american flag, should DEFINATELY not be our President....simple as that, not to mention his socialistic views.....

I am glad its almost over though, I'm sick of it all, I just hope that McCain can pull this one off....sad truth is, he will probably be harrassed to have a re-count if he does win...but if Obama wins, nothing will be questioned....

K.Snyder · Post by **K.Snyder** » Tue Oct 28, 2008 10:30 pm

It's interesting that no President has ever been elected President of the United States of America after having lost Ohio...

Seeing as how the last time I checked Obama was leading the polls in Ohio, I'll have to say Obama...

I know that shouldn't be held primarily as a defining point but hey, who cares?...:wah:...:yh_rotfl...It's only the President of the United states of America...:wah:...

Well, honestly, I know that the elections were rigged for Bush and seeing as how McCain holds upstanding with the same people who can blame me for expecting the 2008 US Presidential elections will be rigged?...

I do believe that Obama will win the popular vote but I couldn't at all guess as to whether or not McCain won't win VIA rigged election 2008...I just can't do it...Bush's first election was so blatantly obvious would render a pig a genius!!!!!!!...Hey at least they rigged the second election sort of competently...:wah:...*Edit* Ok, actually I shouldn't say that...At least they rigged the second election more competently...

shelbell · Post by **shelbell** » Wed Oct 29, 2008 1:41 pm

K.Snyder;1038347 wrote: It's interesting that no President has ever been elected President of the United States of America after having lost Ohio...

Seeing as how the last time I checked Obama was leading the polls in Ohio so I'll have to say Obama...

I know that shouldn't be held primarily as a defining point but hey, who cares?...:wah:...:yh_rotfl...It's only the President of the United states of America...:wah:...

Well honestly I know that the elections were rigged for Bush and seeing as how McCain holds upstanding with the same people who can blame me for expecting the 2008 US Presidential elections will be rigged?...

I do believe that Obama will win the popular vote but I couldn't at all guess as to whether or not McCain won't win VIA rigged election 2008...I just can't do it...Bush's first election was so blatantly obvious would render a pig a genius!!!!!!!...Hey at least they rigged the second election sort of competently...:wah:...*Edit* Ok, actually I shouldn't say that...At least they rigged the second election more competently...

You just like to raise the Ohio thing cuz you live there! :wah: I never realized that you were such a conspiracy theory type person.

:wah:

K.Snyder · Post by **K.Snyder** » Wed Oct 29, 2008 9:06 pm

shelbell;1038843 wrote: You just like to raise the Ohio thing cuz you live there! :wah: I never realized that you were such a conspiracy theory type person.

:wah:

I'm not.

I'm a realist!!!!!!!!...

:yh_rotfl...

shelbell · Post by **shelbell** » Wed Oct 29, 2008 9:32 pm

K.Snyder;1039160 wrote: I'm not.

I'm a realist!!!!!!!!...

:yh_rotfl...

Yeah, right, sure you are....:yh_rotfl:yh_rotfl:yh_rotfl

K.Snyder · Post by **K.Snyder** » Wed Oct 29, 2008 9:42 pm

shelbell;1039169 wrote: Yeah, right, sure you are....:yh_rotfl:yh_rotfl:yh_rotfl

I am...

I am!!!!!!...

I reawwy reawwy am!!!!!!!!...

Hehe...

:yh_rotfl...

:yh_kiss...

shelbell · Post by **shelbell** » Wed Oct 29, 2008 10:00 pm

K.Snyder;1039172 wrote: I am...

I am!!!!!!...

I reawwy reawwy am!!!!!!!!...

Hehe...

:yh_rotfl...

:yh_kiss...

I still say you're a little weird! :wah::wah:

:yh_kiss

K.Snyder · Post by **K.Snyder** » Wed Oct 29, 2008 10:07 pm

shelbell;1039176 wrote: I still say you're a little weird! :wah::wah:

:yh_kiss

Ah...

If no one were weird everybody would be weird!!!!!!!...

...

:wah:...

:yh_kiss :yh_kiss :yh_kiss :yh_kiss :yh_kiss :yh_kiss :yh_kiss :yh_kiss :yh_kiss :yh_kiss :yh_kiss :yh_kiss :yh_kiss :yh_kiss :yh_kiss :yh_kiss :yh_kiss :yh_kiss :yh_kiss :yh_kiss

shelbell · Post by **shelbell** » Wed Oct 29, 2008 10:43 pm

K.Snyder;1039179 wrote: Ah...

If no one were weird everybody would be weird!!!!!!!...

...

:wah:...

:yh_kiss :yh_kiss :yh_kiss :yh_kiss :yh_kiss :yh_kiss :yh_kiss :yh_kiss :yh_kiss :yh_kiss :yh_kiss :yh_kiss :yh_kiss :yh_kiss :yh_kiss :yh_kiss :yh_kiss :yh_kiss :yh_kiss :yh_kiss

Ahhhhh, I rest my case!

:yh_kiss

K.Snyder · Post by **K.Snyder** » Wed Oct 29, 2008 10:47 pm

shelbell;1039189 wrote: Ahhhhh, I rest my case!

:yh_kiss

:rolleyes:...