Call the election result

Post by **spot** » Sun Nov 02, 2008 6:18 pm

Come on then, let's see you all put your reputations on the line.

What's the final distribution of the Electoral College Votes going to be?

One post each, call it how you see it, the talk's over, let's see some solid predictions. Get them posted before the polls open on Tuesday.

CARLA · Post by **CARLA** » Sun Nov 02, 2008 6:43 pm

Most likely number of Obama electoral votes => 364. From what I have read McCain only has 174 today even if he gets the 87 left up for grabs he can't win as Obama is sitting with 277 today. So Obama 277 plus 87 = 364.

Post by **spot** » Sun Nov 02, 2008 6:52 pm

Carla just gave a majority of 190 to Senator Obama if my sums are right.

Okay, here's my call. I'm giving Senator McCain the following States:

Alaska

Alabama

Arkansas

Idaho

Kansas

Kentucky

Nebraska

Oklahoma

South Carolina

Tennessee

Texas

Utah

Wyoming

and I'm giving Senator Obama all the others.

That's 109 Electoral College votes to Senator McCain and 429 to Senator Obama, a majority of 320.

Lon · Post by **Lon** » Sun Nov 02, 2008 7:54 pm

Obama-------------------315 EV

Post by **spot** » Sun Nov 02, 2008 9:13 pm

Goodness me Hoss, if Senator Obama really does take Idaho it would be an astonishing result. So would South Carolina.

Thank you though, if we can get a lot more predictions I wonder whether anyone will suggest a stronger win for Senator McCain than your 42 Electoral College majority.

Post by **Oscar Namechange** » Mon Nov 03, 2008 1:45 am

Hoss;1043503 wrote: John McCain:

Alabama - 9

Alaska - 3

Arizona - 10

Arkansas - 6

Colorado - 9

Florida - 27

Iowa - 7

Kansas - 6

Kentucky - 8

Maryland - 10

Massachusetts - 12

Michigan - 17

Minnesota - 10

Missouri - 11

Nebraska - 5

Nevada - 5

North Carolina - 15

North Dakota - 3

Ohio - 20

Oklahoma - 7

Pennsylvania - 21

South Dakota - 3

Tennessee - 11

Texas - 34

Utah - 5

Virginia - 13

Wyoming - 3

290

Barack Obama:

California - 55

Connecticut - 7

Delaware - 3

District Of Columbia - 3

Georgia - 15

Hawaii - 4

Idaho - 4

Illinois - 21

Indiana - 11

Louisiana - 9

Maine - 4

Mississippi - 6

Montana - 3

New Hampshire - 4

New Jersey - 15

New Mexico - 5

New York - 31

Oregon - 7

Rhode Island - 4

South Carolina - 8

Vermont - 3

Washington - 11

West Virginia - 5

Wisconsin - 10

248

I will also predict that John McCain will win the popular vote as well, by at least a 12% margin.

Good call Hoss. I am not as up as Spot and i was umming and arring on Pennsylvania and Virginia. I'll go with you but i do think there will be a swing to McCain in the last breath. I would give him more the 300 mark.

Post by **spot** » Mon Nov 03, 2008 2:42 am

That's five so far. Keep them rolling in and we'll have a better predictive set.

Attached files

Chezzie · Post by **Chezzie** » Mon Nov 03, 2008 4:12 am

I say Obama will win:-6

State Obama McCain

Arkansas 44% 51%

California 60% 36%

Florida 47% 45%

Florida 47% 47%

Florida 50% 46%

Iowa 54% 37%

Indiana 48% 48%

Michigan 53% 37%

New Jersey 55% 34%

New Mexico 52% 45%

Ohio 57% 41%

Oregon 54% 42%

Pennsylvania 51% 45%

Pennsylvania 51% 47%

Pennsylvania 52% 45%

South Dakota 44% 53%

Utah 32% 57%

Virginia 47% 44%

Washington 51% 39%

Wisconsin 52% 42%

Post by **spot** » Mon Nov 03, 2008 3:03 pm

More predictions of the final result, anyone? I'm surprised there's not a whole stack of posts in here. Scaredycats, the lot of you.

chonsigirl · Post by **chonsigirl** » Mon Nov 03, 2008 4:52 pm

I say Proposition 2, for slot machines in Maryland, will be defeated.

Post by **spot** » Mon Nov 03, 2008 4:53 pm

That's not as helpful to my purpose as getting you to predict the distribution of tomorrow's Electoral College votes.

chonsigirl · Post by **chonsigirl** » Mon Nov 03, 2008 5:01 pm

Yeah, I know. Only sign I have on my yard, been taken quite a few times.

286-Democrat

252-Republican

That is the numbers I am guessing. Not my choice of candidate, but I am thinking this is the way the states will go.

Democrats will win the majority in the Senate.

I haven't thought about the House yet.

Post by **spot** » Mon Nov 03, 2008 5:04 pm

Here's how we're stacking up. Keep them coming.

Attached files

Galbally · Post by **Galbally** » Tue Nov 04, 2008 1:08 pm

Its tea-time here in Ireland and I've been watching the early reports. Its getting exciting isn't it? I say Obama at least 375-385, maybe even more though. The turnout is massive, I think that means we may see a very significant Democratic landslide.

I also think the polls are wrong, they are over-representing the McCain vote, he may end up with under 40 percent of the popular vote.

Post by **Oscar Namechange** » Tue Nov 04, 2008 1:30 pm

Galbally;1045564 wrote: .

I also think the polls are wrong, they are over-representing the McCain vote, he may end up with under 40 percent of the popular vote.

You been on that pocheen again Dr Gallstone???

Post by **spot** » Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:24 pm

Here's my small spreadsheet I just made to track the evening.

All the states are in descending order, solid democrat to solid republican, based on the 2004 results.

There's a column of 1 flags in row R to let you predict a Republican win and there's a total at the bottom.

I had to zip it to upload it here. It's in Excel format.

Attached files compare 2004 2008.xls.zip (13.7 KB)

Post by **spot** » Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:30 pm

Hoss;1045744 wrote: I can't open it. I can't install winzip, this is my dad's old PC and he has the password to unlock the download process. :-3

Hang on a minute then. I can't just upload an XLS file, ForumGarden doesn't allow it.

chonsigirl · Post by **chonsigirl** » Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:32 pm

Impressive, spot. Are you going to change the figures as they call them?

I will probably go to bed at 10 like usual, and wake up to see who is president. I voted, took down my little stop slots sign (my husband was fussing over it, I have no idea why) and will putter off to TKD. Now whom should I imagine the board to be tonight?

(probably the dentist!)

Post by **spot** » Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:33 pm

spot;1045747 wrote: [QUOTE=Hoss;1045744]I can't open it. I can't install winzip, this is my dad's old PC and he has the password to unlock the download process. :-3Hang on a minute then. I can't just upload an XLS file, ForumGarden doesn't allow it.

You can pick it up from my computer directly

cb6.dyndns.org/felicity/compare 2004 2008.xls

Post by **spot** » Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:35 pm

chonsigirl;1045749 wrote: Impressive, spot. Are you going to change the figures as they call them? That's the idea, and I can fill in the blanks depending on how far up or down the 1 column ranges as the results are announced.

I didn't type any of it in apart from the 1 column and the formulas, I just pasted a few tables from the internet. Spreadsheets are fun.

chonsigirl · Post by **chonsigirl** » Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:41 pm

spot;1045756 wrote: That's the idea, and I can fill in the blanks depending on how far up or down the 1 column ranges as the results are announced.

I didn't type any of it in apart from the 1 column and the formulas, I just pasted a few tables from the internet. Spreadsheets are fun.

Yes, spreadsheets are fun. Good use for them to watch election results, and pull up graphs if you want to.

Off topic: How come you could post the little bit of spreadsheet, but not this larger one?

Post by **spot** » Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:46 pm

chonsigirl;1045763 wrote: Yes, spreadsheets are fun. Good use for them to watch election results, and pull up graphs if you want to.

Off topic: How come you could post the little bit of spreadsheet, but not this larger one?

That snapshot of the results predictions?

That's a screen capture.

Attached files

chonsigirl · Post by **chonsigirl** » Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:53 pm

Yes, thank you spot. (I don't know how to do that with a PC, I know it is easier with MACS)

Post by **spot** » Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:58 pm

chonsigirl;1045785 wrote: Yes, thank you spot. (I don't know how to do that with a PC, I know it is easier with MACS)

Irfanview. Beautiful piece of freeware.

I'm on a linux system.

Post by **spot** » Tue Nov 04, 2008 7:43 pm

My spreadsheet currently says

McCain 198

Obama 340

majority 142

K.Snyder · Post by **K.Snyder** » Tue Nov 04, 2008 7:53 pm

Looking as if Obama is going to run away with it.

CARLA · Post by **CARLA** » Tue Nov 04, 2008 8:02 pm

Exactly I love this program free, simple and very, very powerful I have been using it since it came out. I also install it on every PC I have access to it works better than any of the others out there.

[QUOTE]Spot posted: Irfanview. Beautiful piece of freeware.[/QUOTE]

Post by **spot** » Tue Nov 04, 2008 8:44 pm

There's only four States left which can't be called accurately

Indiana

North Carolina

Virginia

Nevada

All the others are set in stone now.

That means the very best Senator McCain can now achieve is

McCain 218

Obama 320

Senator Obama majority 102

and if he loses all four of those, the very worst Senator McCain can do is

McCain 171

Obama 367

Senator Obama majority 196

and my call on it is still what it was,

McCain 198

Obama 340

Senator Obama majority 142

BTS · Post by **BTS** » Tue Nov 04, 2008 9:04 pm

353 Obama

185 McCain

BTS · Post by **BTS** » Tue Nov 04, 2008 9:12 pm

Mississippi Repub holds seat..... Should cancel a super majority

Post by **spot** » Wed Nov 05, 2008 1:26 am

Everyone knows the final result now?

McCain 174

Obama 364

majority 190

Carla, you hit it right on the nose! From 11-03-2008, 01:43 AM which is all of 50 hours before the count ended!!

That's just stunning. Well done!

Galbally · Post by **Galbally** » Wed Nov 05, 2008 10:41 am

Yep, Carla, good job you called it perfectly! You should get a job in CNN you know, well paying job!

To blow my own trumpet for a moment, I was only 19 electoral college votes out so I am going to take a bit of Kudos for that. :-6