Record thousands expected for The Gold Cup, The Bookie's In fear and maybe The Queen

Post by **Oscar Namechange** » Mon Jan 23, 2012 11:28 am

Yes, I know.... but The Gold Cup In March Is the biggest prize of the Steeplechasing calender.

Only the creme dela creme of Racing horse aristocracy get to run this race.

Every Gold Cup for me has been magical but this one will be the most remembered I am sure.

What has caught the entire racing world off guard Is that most wrote Kauto Star off In January this year when Long Run beat him In the delayed King George. An Infection was found after the race which explained his lack lustre performance but a month later, for the first time In his career, Ruby pulled him up at Punchestown. The pundits put It down to age.

However, the pundits were proved so wrong when Kauto beat Long Run by 6 lengths In the Betfair Chase 2 months ago and beating him again on Boxing Day In the King George.

Kauto tweeted that he was 'feeling rather smug' although how he did that with no opposing thumbs Is a mystery.

No other horse has captured the nations hearts as this horse has and how he captured my heart back In 2008 when I saw him for the first time.

Cheltenham Is expecting record numbers for the Gold Cup and the bookie's are In a panic after Kauto's astonishing performances In the past few weeks, slashing his price to 4/1. At 12 years old now, I think the bookies thought they were safe from another ' Nation payout' If he wins.

There are also rumours that stable mate 'Denman' retired due to Injury will accomany Kauto to Cheltenham just to keep him company.... awww... nice.

This will be the 5th time the rivals will go head to head. At the moment It's Kauto 2, Long Run 2 but there are a few entries there that can really upset the mix.

So, why Is Kauto Star so special ?

Probably Kautos most impressive statistic Is his record in Grade 1 Chases. In his first six years in Britain he competed In 18 Grade 1 races over distances from 2 miles to 3 & 1/4 miles. He completed 15, winning 14, with his solitary 2nd coming in the 2008 Gold Cup to his stablemate Denman.

With his 2011 Gold Cup 3rd Kauto kept his record of never finishing outside the places In any of his 27 completed races In his 7 seasons in Britain.

His official rating of 193 given after his 4th King George win was the highest ever awarded to a Steeplechaser.

He's the only horse to have won the King George 5 times.

He's the only horse to have ever regained the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

He's the only horse to have ever won two separate Grade 1 (or Group 1) races over 4 times (Betfair Chase 4 times & King George 5 times). He also won both races under three different Prime Ministers.

He has won more prize money than any other National Hunt horse In the history of Horse Racing. To date earnings £2,375,883

He is the only horse to win Grade 1 races In 7 consecutive seasons.

He is the only horse to have won 16 Grade 1 races in total.

He Is the only horse to win a Grade 1 classic by a mile.

Along with Denman he has competed at the Cheltenham festival 6 times in a row although this Is not a record (The Dikler ran in seven consecutive Gold Cups from 1970-76), but still a brilliant example of Paul Nicholls' training abilities.

Major wins

Cheltenham Gold Cup (2007, 2009)

King George VI Chase (2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011)

Betfair Chase (2006, 2007, 2009, 2011)

Tingle Creek Chase (2005, 2006)

Old Roan Chase (2006)

Aon Chase (2007)

Ascot Chase (2008)

JNwine.com Champion Chase (2008, 2010)

At 12 years old, It will be the feat of a lifetime If he pulls It off..... The rest of the field are not pushovers with a couple In there I expect to shake up the veterans.

I will report on the contenders as and when they are confirmed.

Post by **Oscar Namechange** » Mon Jan 23, 2012 4:06 pm

Confirmed.... The Bookie's favourite Long Run

Affectionally called 'Lennie'...

Form

21211113121111331122

Last two races losing to Kauto Star

Long Run’s jumping has always been a little sketchy but his cruising speed sets him apart from his generation and he has emerged as the young buck to dethrone the ageing stars of this Gold Cup renewal.

Of his class there can be no doubt, but his jumping has let him down twice at Cheltenham and this year at Haydock when he disappointed In the previous year’s RSA Chase and lacked fluency when third In the Paddy Power Gold Cup last November.

He has plenty scope to Improve and jumped much better at Kempton, a repeat of that performance could see him win the Gold Cup.

Trainer.... Nicky Henderson

Jockey.... Sam Waley-Cohen

Owner... Robert Waley- Cohen

Age.... 7 years old

2011 Gold Cup Winner

Attached files

Post by **Oscar Namechange** » Tue Jan 24, 2012 7:23 pm

This horse Is not confirmed as yet but entered for both the RSA and The Gold Cup. His trainer and owner have gone public In that they are more Inclined to pull him from the RSA In favour of the Gold Cup. However, If they decide the other way, which I don't think they will, he'll be a dead cert bet for the RSA.

I saw this horse win at Haydock a few weeks ago and I believe he Is the most exciting novice chaser I have seen In a decade and that's saying something since I have watch hundreds of horse races If not thousands over the years. This Is the horse that I will actually waging my money on and who I think will win.... My heart wants Kauto to win a third Gold Cup and I will explode If he does but In a practical sense, to me, this Is the horse that can beat all of the field.

Grand Crus

Form

4534421111211

Trainer..... David Pipe

Jockey..... To be confirmed but most likely to be Tom Scudamore.

Age...... 6 years old

Anti Post price.... 7/1

Has won 7 out of 13 runs since his career began.

He knows the Cheltenham track well and stays on the steep hill on the run In. He's also run at Aintree and Haydock and Newbury, some of the toughest courses.

On Saturday, he will run The Argento In the pre festival trials at Cheltenham and this represents a perfect test of the feasibility of a Gold Cup challenge for Grands Crus

Grands Crus was a brilliant winner of the Cleeve Hurdle on this card last year, only to find Big Bucks ( The Machine ) too relentless at the Festival.

Having found Big Buck’s too strong In the staying hurdle division last season and with little prospect of turning the tables this time around,connections made the wise decision of switching to the bigger obstacles and he's just got better and better with each race. I truly believe this horse will be a household name In the future.

Grand Crus In the winners enclosure last year at the Cheltenham trials. Forward video to 2.30

Attached files

Post by **Oscar Namechange** » Wed Jan 25, 2012 4:44 pm

What A Friend

This Is the entrant I do not want to see. The pundits may not agree with me but I find this horse just too damn quirky and unpredictable for my liking.

I am going for a straight win on Grand Crus but I have decided also on a combination Tricast of Long Run/Kauto/Grand Crus for the 1.2.3.

If any horse Is going to upset this mix It will be this one. As far as I am concerned, I have never had enough faith In him to put my money on an outright win and he's been a bloody pest to me when he's proved me wrong and upset the mix of my forecasting bets. The worry for me with this horse Is that he Is capable of winning the Gold Cup but for my bets, let's hope he's having one of his quirky days.

Form

121PU1161211524PU3

Trainer...... Paul Nicholls

Owner.... Sir Alex Ferguson

Jockey..... Unconfirmed yet most likely Sam Thomas

Age 9 years old

Anti Post Price..... 40/1

What A Friend has been improving steadily for the past couple of years and now looks ready to challenge the dominance of Kauto Star and Long Run.

2009/10 really was a breakthrough season for What A Friend as he picked up two Group 1 victories, he won the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown last Christmas beating the likes of Joncol and Cooldine with ease before winning the Totesport Bowl at Aintree. That was the race that saw Imperial Commander take a fall but What A Friend was hugely Impressive that day and looked the real deal. He is now 9 years old so looks to be the perfect age for a big run at the Cheltenham Festival, he may not be as big a name as his stable mates just yet but punters should write him off at their peril.

I would say a good each way bet.

Attached files

Post by **Oscar Namechange** » Fri Jan 27, 2012 5:01 pm

Diamond Harry 2010 Hennessy Gold Cup Winner

I like this horse. ( Except when he beat Denman In 2010 and cost me money ). Not one of my favourite chasers but all the same, I like him. He's fast, strong, brilliant jumper and gutsy.

Form

11111131311PU14

Trainer........... Nick Williams

Owner................ Paul Duffy Diamond Partnership

Jockey......... Unconfirmed.. most likely Timmy Murphey

Age... 9 years old

Anti Post Price 25/1

If he could regain the form that saw him win the 2010 Hennessy Gold Cup, he could win this Gold Cup. He was Injured shortly after that race and the first race since, was against Kauto Star and Long Run In The Betfair Chase 2 months ago where he tired around the last 3 fences.

He remains fragile and still has to prove himself off of level weights in Gold Cup level. He has shown over the years that he Is a class type with many wins to his name while his two runs at the Cheltenham Festival would have to be a slight worry for his anti post backers. He came third in the Ballymore Novices Hurdle back in 2009 behind Mikael D'haguenet and Karabak while he was pulled up in the RSA Chase in 2010, that would be a worry to me and he will need to overcome those Cheltenhm troubles If he is to mix It with the likes of Long Run and Kauto Star. I would never completely rule him out but I myself can not see him winning.

Diamond Harry looked much improved at Newbury for the Hennessy last season with his jumping in particular looking much better, If he can continue that form through this season then he is very much one to watch and that is reflected in the latest betting.

Attached files

Post by **Oscar Namechange** » Sat Jan 28, 2012 7:52 am

Grand Crus was pulled from the Argento today In the Cheltenham trials.... His trainer decided to pull him from the race to concentrate on March.... Oh this Is good news for me.

Diamond Harry has just run the Argento and came third. He did very much as he did In the Betfair... tired at around the 4th last..... Which Is what I predict he'll do In the Gold Cup. Good to see him recovered from the Injury though.

Post by **Oscar Namechange** » Sat Jan 28, 2012 8:53 am

Big Bucks ( The Machine ) has made history and just won his 15th consecutive race In the Cleve Hurdle today at The Cheltenham Trials.

Now 4/7 to win his 4th Consecutive World Hurdle In March

Post by **Oscar Namechange** » Sat Jan 28, 2012 11:31 am

Synchronised ( IRE ) 2011 Lexus Chase Winner

Form

21/10/11F11315613PU731

Trainer...... Jonjo O'Neill

Owner.......... John P McManus

Jockey......... Unconfirmed but likely A.P. McCoy

Age 9 years old

Anti Post Price.... 12/1

Too un-predictable for my liking although he ran a blinding race to beat Ireland's finest In The Lexus Chase at Leopardstown In December. He needs soft ground and If he runs as he did In December, he may stand a good chance. Not for me though.

Attached files

Post by **Oscar Namechange** » Sun Jan 29, 2012 5:43 pm

Midnight Chase

Form

1115-F1

Trainer......... Neil Mulholland

Age.... 10 years old

Anti Post Price....... 25/1

Most impressive when winning the Morson Group Handicap Chase at Cheltenham In November 2010 (the race Don't Push It first advertised his Grand National claims In). Midnight Chase led for nearly the whole race at Cheltenham that day seeing off challenger after challenger Including the stout stayer and Grand National fancy Any Currency in the process. The over-riding quality of his performance was the accuracy of his jumping and It's very easy to see why he was a leading fancy for the 2011 Grand National before he was withdrawn. Ran well for a long way when fifth In the Gold Cup but had a very hard race there and connections decided that would be enough for the season. Trainer Neil Mulholland stated last year that he believed the horse needed another season before he becomes a fully fledged Grand National contender so It would seem It was all systems go for Aintree 2012. Until Yesterday when he led all the way to victory In the Argento at the Cheltenham trials. Having said that, I believe myself his victory was due to the withdrawal of Grand Crus from the race but he comfortably beat Time For Rupert.

If Long Run or Kauto are having an off day In the Gold Cup, this horse will absolutely take advantage and exploit any weakness's.

If Kauto, Long Run and Grand Crus are on form, I can not see him beating them although I do think he will make all the running.

Attached files

Post by **Oscar Namechange** » Tue Jan 31, 2012 9:44 am

For those unaware, The Chetenham Festival Is not all about the Gold Cup but four days of racing and the finest chasers all gracing the paddock.

Over the four days, there are several big name and prize money races.

I do not choose horses for my bets lightly. I only make my decisions after watching what Is likely to be my choice for the year but also watching everything that Is likely to challenge the horse of my choice for a year. I am not sentimental to the horses who happen to be my favourites.

Everything matters.... distance, jockey, weight, height of hurdles, left or right hand track, condition of the ground, weather, stamina, speed, jumping ability etc etc.

There are some races where I know where my money will be going during the four days.

Supreme Novice's Hurdle

Simonsig

Nicky Henderson’s exciting novice has hinted at a high level of ability In just two runs so far. After performing modestly at Ascot the horse then took a significant step up In class to contest a Grade 2 Novices's Hurdle at Sandown. The fact that this gelding went down by just over two lengths to the unbeaten Fingal Bay suggests that it could be set to turn potential Into success at this year’s festival.

David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle

Quevega

I love this horse and her style to hug the rail.

While there may be bigger races and higher quality fields on Day one of the Festival , huge intrigue Is likely to surround Quevega’s bid for a fourth consecutive victory In this race. Boasting a 100% record at the track, Willie Mullins’ 8 year old has proved that she can consistently beat the best of both sexes. Cheltenham 2012 Is likely to be no different. The odds will be short so worth adding Into a treble.

Ryanair Chase

Kauto Stone

Ok... maybe a little bit of sentiment here.... The 6 year old brother of Kauto Star arrived fresh at the Paul Nicholls stable last year and went straight Into training. High expectations are obviously expected here by the racing world.

In one of the most open contests of the Cheltenham festival, It may seem strange to back a horse who has only been seen once In England so far. However, the level of ability that the 6 year old showed on his debut In a Grade 2 earlier In the season suggests that big things are set to come. The way he trampled his rivals into the ground over 2 and a half miles at Down Royal, Ireland last year suggests that the Ryanair Chase on Day 3 could be an easy victory.

Post by **Oscar Namechange** » Wed Feb 01, 2012 11:47 am

The World Hurdle

Big Bucks

Well, what can anyone say about this horse ?

Look at the form.

111111111111111

I adore him and being In his presence In the pre-parade ring and paddock gives me the feeling of a ringside seat at a Mike Tyson fight.... Just awesome.

He'll be going for his 4th consecutive World Hurdle at the Festival and his 16th consecutive win.

Knocked down to 4/9 after his victory In the Cleve Hurdle two days ago, at this price, although I believe It will be a one horse race, I tend to go for a straight forecast.

I'll be putting Mikael D'Haguenet as the 2nd and at 14/1, this will outweigh the odds on price of Big Bucks and give a nice return.

Cheltenham Memories 2009 - YouTube

Forward to 3.16

Post by **Oscar Namechange** » Wed Feb 01, 2012 6:10 pm

Ruby Walsh will ride Kauto Star In the Gold Cup

Kauto Star - YouTube

Man and horse In perfect unison.

Ruby Ruby Ruby

Post by **Oscar Namechange** » Fri Feb 03, 2012 2:02 pm

Contender for The Gold Cup

Burton Port

Not one of my favourites but this Is another extremely tough chaser who jumps well. Given his progress over the year, I would not rule him out entirely.

Form

F2UR111334212111212

Trainer.... Nicky Henderson

Owner........ Trevor Hemmings

Jockey..... Unconfirmed but most likely Barry Geraghty

Age.... 8 years old

Anti Post price ..... 33/1

He's not a household name but he Is a real contender for The Gold Cup. He's still very young and has stepped up In class over the years and slowly Improved. At the end of last season he won the Mildway Novice Chase In good company. He also ran a blinding race at Cheltenham coming second behind Weapons Amnisty In the RSA Chase. That day he also beat Long Run. He also beat Denman Into third In the Hennessy Gold but although to be fair to Denman, Burton Port carried two stone lighter that day.

My humble opinion Is that this Is another horse who If any of Kauto/Long Run/ Grand Crus are having an off day, he will exploit the weakness's.

I would say another good each way bet at 33/1

Attached files

Post by **Oscar Namechange** » Mon Feb 06, 2012 6:07 am

Another big race of the festival Is:

The Queen Mother Champion Chase

Last years winner 'Sizing Europe' will be looking to defend the title but I myself believe he only won after Master Minded wrong footed at the 4th last.

On form, I can not put a rizzla paper between the favourite, 2nd favourite and 3rd favourite and predict a winner out of Sizing Europe, Finians Rainbow who finished 2nd In The Arkle last year and Big Zeb who won the race In 2010

To play safe, I am placing a small combination tricast for the three.

Post by **Oscar Namechange** » Tue Feb 07, 2012 4:56 pm

Contender for The Gold Cup

Weird Al

The pundits seem to think this Is a name of the future but he's failed to Impress me. He's clearly Improved since joining the Donald McCain Yard. He's a sound jumper but seems to perform best when fresh. He finished behind Kauto and Long Run In the Betfair but to me he seemed out of his class that day with the duo. His connections made the wise choice of withdrawing him from the King George In December to keep him fresh for The Gold Cup. Personally, I think he'll struggle on the Cheltenham track.

Form

2111118PU13

Trainer....... Donald McCain

Owner....... Brannon Dennis Dick Holden

Jockey......... Jason Maguire

Age..... 9 Years old

Anti Post price......... 20/1

He did run a blinding race In October to win The Charlie Hall Chase beating Time For Rupert Into second at Wetherby. Prior to this run he was pulled up In the Gold Cup at Cheltenham, so not for me.

Attached files

Post by **Oscar Namechange** » Wed Feb 08, 2012 8:42 am

Contender for the Gold Cup

Time for Rupert ( IRE )

I first saw this horse at Cheltenham In March of 2010 when he finished 2nd behind Big Bucks. That November he came In 2nd behind Chicago Gray. Since then, I have had my eye on him as I really believed he was one to watch. However, his performance In the Betfair In November saw him way out classed by Kauto and Long Run. He has been suffering from an Infection which could explain his lack lustre performance but following that he did go on to win at Newbury four weeks later. He came In 4th In the Cheltenham trials last week In The Argento, the race that saw Midnight Chase win. Any horse who can come a close 2nd to Big Bucks Is capable but I just have no faith In him to out class Kauto, Long Run and Grand Crus In the Gold Cup, so this time around, not for me, the class of the rivals Is just too great for this one.

He will run a game race though for he's brave as a lion when taking those jumps but I just don't think his cruising speed Is enough to even gain a place here.... shame.... He's a great, tough horse and I love him.... Just not this time. He's still a young horse... I'll be watching him In the future.

Form

18711/10/171221152514

Trainer......... Paul Webber

Owner.......... Littlecote Racing Partnership

Jockey.............. Will Kennedy

Age.... 8 years old

Anti Post price..... 20/1

Attached files

Post by **Oscar Namechange** » Thu Feb 09, 2012 12:17 pm

Now If you're going to have a bet on The God Cup, this race Is worth watching.

Most of the field here was withdrawn by their trainers due to the quality of the 5 superstars.

Here In The Betfair Chase run just 8 weeks ago, 5 of the main contenders for the Gold Cup and that I have given my view on, run this race over one of the most gruelling tracks.

My Video - 0001.dv - YouTube

Post by **Oscar Namechange** » Tue Feb 14, 2012 4:30 pm

Latest betting for the Gold Cup via William Hills... Seems a lot of money Is going on here.

Long Run 2/1

Kauto Star

4/1

Grands Crus 9/1 from 10/1

Synchronised

14/1

Midnight Chase

16/1

Quel Esprit

16/1

Captain Chris

20/1

Weird Al

20/1

Quito De La Roque

25/1

Burton Port

33/1

Diamond Harry

33/1

Medermit

33/1

Tidal Bay

33/1

Time For Rupert

33/1

Bostons Angel

40/1

China Rock

40/1

The Minack

40/1

What A Friend

40/1

Post by **Oscar Namechange** » Fri Feb 24, 2012 4:40 pm

Some serious going money on Grand Crus In the last week for the Gold Cup..... backed down from nines to 7/1.

Equally, Long Run down to 9/4 and Kauto 7/2

One of the races of the festival that has been the subject of great debate over the weeks with myself and racing chums Is The :

Champion Hurdle

My chums seem to think nothing Is going to touch the unbeaten Hurricane Fly but second favourite's Binnocular Impressive win at Wetherby two days ago may see the favourite out run.

For this, my money Is on Binnocular

Another exciting feature of the festival Is the :

Jewson Novices Chase

There's ony one horse for me here and I have gone for a single each way bet on Paul Nicholls Al Ferof at 10/1

Post by **Oscar Namechange** » Fri Feb 24, 2012 6:29 pm

Went to my Facebook profile tonight to see one of my racing chums had written.... 'Three weeks to go Jules, are you getting excited?'

It just sums up the excitement we all feel knowing we will see the cream of horses very soon.

If you haven't seen it, here It is again :

Cheltenham (Downtown) - YouTube

Post by **Oscar Namechange** » Tue Feb 28, 2012 1:02 pm

News from the Nicholls stable Is that many of Paul's horses have developed a cough. This Is bad news just 14 days from the festival but the Kauto's are apparently not affected.

Now I am puzzled slightly.

Kauto Star's brother Kauto Stone just a baby at 6 years old, has only been seen once In England. He won his debut race at Down, Royal Ireland but very much a novice.

He was entered for the Ryanair Chase and given the competition, I thought he was a good bet. Now, Nicholls has withdrawn him from the Ryanair and Instead he will run In The Queen Mother Championship Chase.

Puzzling because the first, second and third favourites for the Queen Mother Chase are big guns, especially Finians Rainbow and Sizing Europe

Why pull a novice from a race he had every chance of winning and put him In a race with such big guns ? Hhmmmmmmm

I can only assume pre-race gallops have made Paul Nicholls believe this Is worth the risk.

I can't see much that will beat Finians Rainbow and Sizing Europe but at 25/1, Kauto Stone has got to be worth a good each way punt.

It would be fabulous to see him win this race and beat the big guns... Can't wait.

Kauto Stone's debut In Ireland

( Has to be one of the smallest horses I've seen.... him and Caruthers are tiny )

Post by **Oscar Namechange** » Wed Feb 29, 2012 5:30 pm

If there Is one race that will prise Her Majesty The Queen away from the tv coverage and down to Cheltenham, It'll be this one on day four of the festival. The last time she graced us with her presence she wore a red coat, red hat and red lipstick In 2009. It reminded me that I had letters to post.

She had come to see her own horse Barbers Shop run In the Gold Cup and I shall always remember the look of disgust on her face when Kauto Star won and Barbers Shop could only manage an embarrassing 6th.

This year, I hope she will grace us with her presence again to watch Barbers Shop once again but although I think he'll be placed In this race, I doubt he'll win.

The Foxhunter Chase

My money Is on a straight win with Chapoturgeon at 6/1

A former Paul Nicholls Cheltenham winner now In the Richard Barber yard this season. He's at the top of his class here.

Forward to 2.42

Post by **Oscar Namechange** » Thu Mar 08, 2012 4:18 am

Now this Is Interesting.....

Ruby Walsh today has given his tips for the Festival.

He recommends a 4 horse accumulator which Is the exact same as I was Intending to do weeks ago. Great minds think alike.

So If Ruby endorses this bet then what can I say other than, come on folks, have a fun bet and go for It.

You can do a 4 horse accumulator for as little as 50p.

Big Bucks

Quevega

Hurricane Fly

Sizing Europe

peleus · Post by **peleus** » Tue Oct 22, 2013 4:28 pm

By the way, with Ruby, how often does he have the right bet? I was trying to check if there's something online that shows his record.

Post by **Oscar Namechange** » Tue Oct 22, 2013 4:30 pm

These threads are one to two years old... why don't you start a new thread with your questions.

Post by **Oscar Namechange** » Wed Oct 23, 2013 7:57 am

peleus;1438419 wrote: By the way, with Ruby, how often does he have the right bet? I was trying to check if there's something online that shows his record.

Ruby Walsh has quit as Nicholl's champion Jockey and I am sure his success's this season will lie within the Mullin's yard In Ireland. I'm certain we'll see success again with Ruby In the saddle on Mullin's Hurricane Fly, Briar Hill, Champagne Fever, even possibly a 6th Consecutive David Nicholson on Quevega. I'd really like to see that.

It's a good decision I feel as I don't believe the Nichol's yard has much to offer this season In way of fresh blood. With Sanctuaire being sold off, I feel his only half decent prospect this season Is Unioniste, a horse I rate highly.

CHELTENHAM HIGHLIGHTS 2013 - YouTube

A bit early for a prediction but I'll be looking at Our Conor as the Champion Hurdler In 2014

Champion trainer 2014 ? It'll be close... between Mullins and Henderson.... Henderson holds too many of the big guns.