ForumGarden

I see that the Israeli press is saying that an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities seems imminent. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu & Defense Minister Ehud Barak have been threatening to attack Iran for quite some time now. This will no doubt cause many deaths and much damage as well as bump up the price of oil.

The USA has tried to persuade Israel to desist from an independent action against the nuclear installations of Iran. Amongst others things they have offered Israel a whole heap of F-35 jet fighters, but so far Israel has dug in its heels.

Ideally Israel would like to attack Iran’s nuclear sites before the U.S. election in November but seem to lack support within their own cabinet and military.

Mitt Romney is an old friend of Netanyahu and he fancies himself as a more reliable bulwark for the Jewish state’s security. So a pre-November strike will embarrass Obama and help Romney’s chances of being elected.

It’s doubtful that America will go to war in Iran but they will nevertheless give Israel all the support and munitions they require. Israel will obviously want to take advantage of the fact that all Presidential candidates have to show a pro-Israel bias because of the power of the American Jewish community. This is Israel’s “secret weapon” so they will mount an attack and be certain of America’s support.

What is a given though, is that whether it is the USA or Israel who attacks Iran, missiles will rain down on the Jewish state. However it seems that they are prepared to accept this as preferable to having an atom bomb explode over Tel Aviv.

I doubt Israel will do anything to Iran all alone. Their airforce doesn't have the legs to reach Iran carrying a war load capable of doing what needs to be done. I highly suspect that the Saudis may allow them to use their bases as way points, Iraq or just about any country in the region could too. If the price is right.

Iran does have ICBM capability but the missiles such as the Shahab 6 are not available in quantity, the MRMs are capable of hitting Israel but once again they do not have numbers that would really cause a lot of damage. Short range SCUDs (no doubt improved) are a threat though, the oil terminals in the gulf region would be very vulnerable to these.

I have to call BS on these rumors though. I highly doubt that there would be a good result and it may cost dearly. Were Iran to retaliate and start sinking ships in the Persian gulf there would be significant impacts to the world economy. The nuclear missile threat is just hype, Iran has no nukes - period. Iran also knows that if they were to nuke someone they would cease to exist as a nation in short order.

Their airforce doesn't have the legs to reach Iran carrying a war load capable of doing what needs to be done.



Israel has F15s. Each plane will be armed with a single laser-guided bunker buster bomb. It will use their F16s as escorts.

More to the point is the route their planes would have to take ... They will go over Syria. There would be hell to pay if Israel went over Turkey or Jordan. If the Saudis “permitted” it, the Iranians would retaliate by assassinating Saudis all over the world. So it will be Syria. This is especially true as the country is in chaos today.

Israel has nuclear weapons of it's own and the means to deliver them. Saudi will end up the major power in the region which is probably their end game.

Israel has F15s. Each plane will be armed with a single laser-guided bunker buster bomb. It will use their F16s as escorts.


F-15s as far as I know only have a range of about 1300 miles with a war load. They would have to tank up somewhere on the way back, they couldn't make the round trip. The F- 16s combat radius is only about 350 miles, they can't even make it to the gulf. No way could Israel strike the deep interior of Iran with enough firepower to do real damage. I suspect a lot of the facilities are under ground by now, a 2000 lb blockbuster may not even hurt them if they did get to the target. You also have to take into account air defense assets. The Iranians have old stuff but it has proven to be effective none the less. There would be losses.

More to the point is the route their planes would have to take ... They will go over Syria. There would be hell to pay if Israel went over Turkey or Jordan. If the Saudis “permitted” it, the Iranians would retaliate by assassinating Saudis all over the world. So it will be Syria. This is especially true as the country is in chaos today.


Syrias military is still functioning, its air defense is still a threat and with the current situation it is hyper alert. They'll have to use someone elses airspace and I think it would be Saudi Arabia or someone else. Kuwait?

Has no one learnt the lessons of the first Gulf war?

Even if you outgun them, if you attack Iran then expect big losses because they're prepared to throw bodies into the firing line to defend their country.

If you attack them you are strengthening the hold of the Ayatollahs.





Back off and the people will sort the fanatics out.