Events in Turkey and Syria

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Scrat
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Events in Turkey and Syria

Post by Scrat »

I think that this is a very good rundown on the escalating situation there in Syria.

With Turkey-Syria escalation, worries grow about a tip into war - Yahoo! News

You can add to it the US has set up a base in Jordan to "monitor" the situation with the chemical weapons stockpiles there. There will be an invasion of Syria soon, probably spring of next year. I suspect Turkey will be the chosen entity to invade and possibly a few other NATO entities. If they can't find a reason they'll make one.

Actually I think it may be best for the Syrian people at this point but I am also afraid it will degenerate further into a mess like we had in Iraq.
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Post by koan »

It's hard to blame Turkey for taking a stand when the internal war spilled across the border. They have a right to defend their country from attack even if the violence wasn't aimed at them I can see why they take it seriously. The chances of it happening again are quite high. Setting clear boundaries is probably a good idea.
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Hard to blame Turkey? Turkey is the number one reason this war has gone on as long as it has and so much misery is stalking the land of Syria. The terrorists shelter across the Turkish border when the Syrian army comes after them. Most of their supplies come through Turkey, they hide amongst the refugees there and the Turks do nothing about it.

Defend themselves? That recon plane was shot down by an automated AA system from the 1970s. It was so close to the Syrian beaches a soldier probably could have hit it with a rock. The mortars? Just as likely a FSA terrorist group trying to start something as a few stray rounds, I highly doubt that the Syrians took the shots. Any boundary to be set will not be respected by any party there. That was proven with the peace plan, if we're not careful we may just end up with a genocide of the Alawites too. All in the name of freedom though.
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Post by koan »

I'd like to know why you are calling the Syrian rebels terrorists. You seem to have done a lot of research. The word "terrorist" has been rendered meaningless over the last decade so I'm interested in knowing how you think it applies to this situation.
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I used the word terrorist in reference to the FSA because it seems fitting IMO. Their acts and tactics such as car bombing and clandestine slaughter of innocents for propaganda purposes are quite enough for me to justify the use of the word. I wouldn't call it meaningless either, it's actually a very effective tool to get peoples attention.

You called them rebels. In reality most of the FSA personnel are mercenaries, there are not a lot of Syrian citizens involved if you look at the big picture. A lot of these Mercs have fought American troops in the past. A popular uprising on a massive scale by the Syrian people would have toppled Assad long ago. Apparently the Syrian army is holding its own so far but it cannot hold out forever without substantial outside support. Support from outside is the only thing that allows the FSA to exist. The Syrian Army would have crushed them long ago.
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Post by koan »

One of the first things I watched about the details of the rebellion is an Al Jazeera program featuring some artists who created a show called "Top Goon" who define themselves as revolutionaries. Two of the group's members become more violent once they are in exile and the others become concerned. Perhaps there is a blend between legitimate revolutionaries and those who are being manipulated by outside interests?

Little Dictator - Witness - Al Jazeera English

The Top Goon project certainly does not show terrorists at work.
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Post by Scrat »

Al-jazeera is head quartered in Doha Qatar. The government of is one of the primary sponsors of the FSA. What more needs to be said?

What does a puppet show have to do with what is going on in Syria anyway? People are getting their heads blown to pieces walking down to the bread shop. Children are not getting their educations.

The governments of of Qatar, Turkey, Saudi Arabia couldn't care less.
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Post by koan »

Really? The puppet show is a satire about Assad. It is a bunch of artists trying to use non-violent means to protest. That kind of thing doesn't happen where a "terrorist" group has swept in and manufactured discontent. The puppets show is entirely about the discontent of real people for real reasons.

Of course their weapons are crude. They don't have a billion dollar defence budget, how else are they going to get weapons but build them out of crude materials? If a government doesn't shoot down their own citizens while protesting then non-violence is possible. As soon as a government opens fire on protesters they have forced those people taking on new methods. The alternative is for thousands of people to stand hand in hand singing kumbaya while they get slaughtered and breed at an abnormally fast "bunny" rate so they can keep replacing the kumbayaers as they get mowed down. That doesn't seem practical. It's generally hard to get people to go to their slaughter without a chance that at least one of their oppressors will die along with them.

I'm not saying that car bombs are a good thing, I'm just saying that it's a little more complex than what you've said... And Al Jazeera has proven its reputation as a good source. Compared to most large media organizations AJE has a rather stellar reputation, imo.
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Post by koan »

Assad's propaganda minister defected and gives some interesting insight.

Syria's Assad 'plans to escape to Russia' - Middle East - Al Jazeera English

He specifically talks about the spin he was required to put on bombings to make it look like it was terrorism.
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Post by Scrat »

He specifically talks about the spin he was required to put on bombings to make it look like it was terrorism.


He'll say anything he has to in order to save his own arse. He isn't going home any time soon. He was the propaganda minister for christs sake Koan, how can you trust anything he says? Everything is spun on all sides all the time. I couldn't care less what he says.

If you think for a second this is a worthy cause that we're helping these "freedom fighters" in then you have some really distorted information. You really need to get the facts, not watch puppet shows produced to distort facts and distract you from the truth.

They don't have a billion dollar defence budget, how else are they going to get weapons but build them out of crude materials?


By Saudi Arabia emptying their warehouses is how.The carbombs that have went off weren't crude, they're not easy to make and deliver. RPG rounds are being modified to hit harder and penetrate more armor. All of this comes from experienced personel, experienced over a long period of time. Our "allies" in this religious/civil war are arming Sunni Jihadists, radicals that intend to drag that country into another dark age. Women there are going to be wearing bed sheets not dresses blue jeans and fancy shoes. When the current government falls it won't be over, then the real fight for freedom will start, it will be a repeat of Iraq. Shites and Christians aren't going to win it either. Hell, most Christians are gone or dead already.
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Post by koan »

There is spin everywhere, my friend. Ask me if I trust a politician more than an artist and my answer will always be "No." Even if we're talking about Andy Warhol. I don't have a position on Syria at the moment. It's royally ****ed up. You can't really know what is going on unless you lived there.
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Post by Scrat »

I see no reason I should trust any artist who takes a side, they're bought and paid for jusy as easily as anyone else. Especially in this case.

If you want to study up on this you need to read more than just the news. If you want to reallt know what is going on in the big picture you need to study a lot about warfare and history politics and economics. If you know enough and put in the time you can figure out what is going on.

This is not a rebellion, this is proxy warfare between powers. They are using religion, open and clandestine terrorism, economic deprivation and destruction of Syrias infrastructure in order to bring about the result they desire.

The lives of Syrians in the middle don't mean jack s**t to the people running this, on either side. Syrians are going to pay a steep price for their "freedom". I stand firmly on the side of Syrias government as they have always done well by the majority of the people even under very adverse circumstances. Shia Syrians are fighting back so hard because they know that if they don't fight and survive in the new order they may as well be slaves.
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Post by Scrat »

Here's a link, this story is all over the internet in one form or another.

Arms for Syrian rebels go mostly to jihadists – report — RT

Keep in mind, were the majority of Syrians against Assad this would have been over long ago. The simple fact is that the people fighting for the FSA are mostly Sunni Jihadists and a very small number of actual Syrians. The fact that the Syrian army is still functioning and keeping the FSA at bay should tell you something.
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Post by koan »

Scrat;1408215 wrote: Here's a link, this story is all over the internet in one form or another.

Arms for Syrian rebels go mostly to jihadists – report — RT

Keep in mind, were the majority of Syrians against Assad this would have been over long ago. The simple fact is that the people fighting for the FSA are mostly Sunni Jihadists and a very small number of actual Syrians. The fact that the Syrian army is still functioning and keeping the FSA at bay should tell you something.
Your own link shows the problem with what you are saying.

"Most of the arms funneled to Syrian rebels reportedly end up in the hands of hardline Islamist extremists, including those affiliated with Al-Qaeda. There is no way of vetting rebel groups to bolster only those with more secular views."

There are different factions in the rebels. They aren't all fighting for the same reason. According to you, they are Al Qaeda and they are jihadists. Also according to you, they are proxies for the US. The US is not funding Al Qaeda in Syria. Israel is also giving funding to the rebels. Israel is most certainly not funding Al Qaeda.

There are many different reasons people have risen up against Assad. Deserters from the army, former political prisoners, and probably a few trigger happy angry people looking for a cause. I bet one of the rebels somewhere in Syria has a collection of plush animals on their bed (Maybe even a poster of "My Little Pony") while another one plays Angry Birds at the end of a hard day. Some of these people might fit the classic version of terrorist and others do not.

There is no one type of person trying to topple Assad's regime. I know you don't respect the soulful honesty of artists but here is the tale from a poet's hand way back in 1999 (before the spin doctors arrived)

Atomised by years of intelligence reports, they were not organised and far from united. Just how fragmented was the Opposition becomes clear in Hasiba Abd al-Rahman's Al-Sharnaqa (The Cocoon) published in 1999. A vivid depiction of life in a women's prison, it decries government brutality while also criticising the chaos among the dissidents.

For three months after publication, Abd al-Rahman writes, the Syrian authorities summoned her repeatedly. They demanded that she explain "the symbols and references and what this or that thought meant and why I had written it this way and not another. What really surprised me was the harsh and negative reaction of the Opposition. They accused me of washing dirty laundry in public. I was amazed that their violent reaction was no different from that of the authorities except that the latter could summon me and they could not. They wanted a story about heroes when in fact it was a story of intellectual and military defeats."

Inside dissident Syria - Opinion - Al Jazeera English

Alex Jones has an agenda too, you know.
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Post by Scrat »

I admit I am using a broad brush on the rebels, some of those groups are in fact simply protecting their part of the country, their neighbohood, their homes. The media being what it is you can't distinguish between them though. This conflict has been Balkanized by the outside interference by yet other foreign groups.

Interference is the reason people are dying.

Supposedly most of these groups leaders are having a big meeting today, I suspect they will all have large amounts of cash in thier bank accounts by the end of it and they may coordinate themselves better. They will pocket large amounts for themselves then probably buy some more mercenaries.

There are many different reasons people have risen up against Assad. Deserters from the army, former political prisoners, and probably a few trigger happy angry people looking for a cause.


The SYRIANS who have risin up against Assad are very few in number. It's estimated there are only about 20 to 25 thousand of them spread all over the country. That reportedly is a high number.

I know you don't respect the soulful honesty of artists but here is the tale from a poet's hand way back in 1999 (before the spin doctors arrived)


I don't believe a word of the article, it standard boiler plate material. As for artists and honesty I'll never accuse one of turning down some cash and a good job if it requires telling lies.
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Post by koan »

We seemed to be getting along so well until the last two sentences.

I'm not sure how you align Abd al-Rahman with someone taking money to tell lies since her book upset both the regime and the dissidents. Who paid her?
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In light of acts like this, is it relevant?

At least 13 killed, dozens injured in Damascus car bombing amid UN peace envoy visit (VIDEO, PHOTOS) — RT

I think that the fact that almost all western countries on one hand condemn acts of terror and on the other (when their allies do it) it's just fine. Why are artists even speaking out about it? Those guys that did the puppet show should do one about this guy who drove a car loaded with explosives to Damascus and killed 13 people, how about one of the others? I know why only certain things get in the media, so do you Koan

There's been news of riots and clashes in Lebanon. Turkey and Syria may try to come to an agreement of some sort, it appears Erdogan is being pressured from within. Syria is under great pressure but they are still holding their own. The idiots in the FSA are simply driving the common Syrian away from them. There's a rumor that Syria doesn't have the arms to get to the people who want to fight. The terrorists are having a hard time maneuvering in the interior of the country due to lack of support.
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Post by Scrat »

And the latest. Damn could the west be any more hypocritical.

Fidaa Itani His website or blog. He was arrested by the rebels, let's see if he lives.

Fidaa Itani | Al Akhbar English

Syrian rebels seize Lebanese journalist over ‘incompatible’ reporting — RT
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Post by fuzzywuzzy »

The more I watch reports about the Syrian situation the more I get the feeling it's a very deliberate act.
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It's become a religious conflict much like the Balkans after Yugoslavia and it is being openly backed by US allies Sunni Arab Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Iran and others are backing the Alawites and Christians (who are mainly just fighting for survival, if they haven't already left) by any means possible. Kurds are waiting to see if they can grab anything, Turkey may be realizing that if they get deeply involved and do the USs bidding it will not be good for them. These Sunni extremists will look around for another playground, it may well be them.

Here's a disturbing video. This is who we're supporting. The death toll is now over 30,000. Major portions of the western part of the country are demolished, refugees are becoming a problem. I had a contact that lived in Tartus on another forum, he hasn't posted in weeks, he could well be dead or went to fight these scumbags.

Violent Syria video footage: UN warns of possible rebel war crimes (GRAPHIC VIDEO) — RT
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Just an update. In the last few months the terrorists have made significant gains. It started with gaining the control of Aleppo back in Sept. This enabled them to move significant amounts of supplies into the country through Lebanon and Turkey. Since then they have acquired MANPADS, better anti tank weapons and communications. They have been able to move around the country more freely as the Syrian Airforce has been unable to roam at will. The Syrian ground forces are hard pressed to function on a tactical let alone strategic level. Supply problems are mounting, the main supply artery Damascus IAP is no longer safe for aircraft. It's just a matter of time at this point.

What is Assad going to do? I suspect he will leave the country, probably for Russia before long. He may well stay to the end. His end. The parties involved are working to set up government entities to keep control after the Assad government falls. The Kurds are arming and apparently intend to cause trouble as do other groups. The first phase of the war is all but over, the second is just beginning. Deaths up to this point are around 70,000, millions of refugees are scattered throughout the entire region. Syria has no functioning economy, the infrastructure is torn up very badly. 10s of 1000s of buildings and homes are destroyed. Destruction capitalism at its finest. Hopefully it will all be over in the next few years, just what the people of Syria will have is anyones guess.

On the subject of the large stockpiles of chemical weapons. I think that at this point the west should be ready for anything, the Syrian armed forces will not be able to protect them for much longer. Sarin is nasty stuff, if the terrorists get hold of it god only knows where it will end up.
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There has been an interesting theory put forth. Up in the north west of the country in Tartus and the surrounding area you find the historic stronghold of the Alawites. The rebels are not ambushing anything heading to that area from other parts of Syria. It seems that Assad and those concerned may end up there or at least the larger portion of alawites and secular population as they flee from the fighting. They want nothing to do with the Sunni terrorists and Sharia Law.
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Post by gmc »

Scrat;1409714 wrote: It's become a religious conflict much like the Balkans after Yugoslavia and it is being openly backed by US allies Sunni Arab Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Iran and others are backing the Alawites and Christians (who are mainly just fighting for survival, if they haven't already left) by any means possible. Kurds are waiting to see if they can grab anything, Turkey may be realizing that if they get deeply involved and do the USs bidding it will not be good for them. These Sunni extremists will look around for another playground, it may well be them.

Here's a disturbing video. This is who we're supporting. The death toll is now over 30,000. Major portions of the western part of the country are demolished, refugees are becoming a problem. I had a contact that lived in Tartus on another forum, he hasn't posted in weeks, he could well be dead or went to fight these scumbags.

Violent Syria video footage: UN warns of possible rebel war crimes (GRAPHIC VIDEO) — RT


I don't know how this will end, certainly if the rebels weren't being financed and supported from abroad it would all be over.

Syria: The descent into Holy War - Comment - Voices - The Independent

I'm not particularly given to conspiracy theories but which nation has gained most from all the turmoil in the middle east - saudi arabia. Where did this extreme form of islam - Wahhabism start - saudi arabia. who is going to end up the most powerful country in the middle east once iran and syria are knocked off - saudi arabia.

I don't understand why the west is backing the rebels and recognising them as legitimate most syrians do not. If they win the next few tyears will be a bloody nightmare of ordinary syrians. Sectarian warfare is the most dreadful of all.
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Post by Saint_ »

I am very tired of being the world's policeman. Can't we just let them all kill each other? Arabs have been fighting in that part of the world for three thousand years. It isn't going to stop anytime soon. Heck, their "prophet" mohammad started out as a caravan bandit...
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I'm not particularly given to conspiracy theories but which nation has gained most from all the turmoil in the middle east - saudi arabia. Where did this extreme form of islam - Wahhabism start - saudi arabia. who is going to end up the most powerful country in the middle east once iran and syria are knocked off - saudi arabia.


It's not so much Saudi Arabia that has gained, it's Sunni Islam that has gained, at great expense to other religious sects such as Shi'ites and Christians of the region. Couple that with the Saudi and Qatari arms dealers plus others and just about every bigwig scumbag in the ME is making a fortune. This war will spread to Lebanon next, the Kurds are going to tear themselves off a piece also. I heard that there is a lot of people still fleeing to the north west part of the country. Russia has warships off the coast and is reportedly preparing to evacuate Russian citizens I suspect that most of Assads government will end up in along the mediteranean coast. I suspect Russia will be supporting them heavily.

Saint. This conflict will last for some time to come, there are too many different agendas among the rebels and one thing is for sure. Few if any have any good felling towards us. This is actually an extension of the sectarian conflict in Iraq that is still going on to this day there. We took out Saddam and as I said, we will be paying the price for a long time to come.
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Post by Scrat »

Here's an article from the NYT, it is speculation but the pattern is definitely there. The west coast of Syria around Tartus and Latakia and the hilly region to the east is definitely very defensible also.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/23/world ... ted=1&_r=1
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