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By Andrew Gordon



Nobody wants but everybody seems to expect a worldwide oil shortage, along with super-spikes in oil prices that will lead to long lines at the fuel pump and thinner wallets.

Plentiful oil and falling oil prices seem to be a pipe dream to almost everybody ... but not to Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA). Its recent report declares that oil production will go up and not down ... and that oil prices will go down and not up. It expects oil prices to drop to below $40 a barrel by 2007 or 2008. Oil production will peak sometime after 2020 and enter into a gentle decline thereafter. Much of the extra production capacity will be in "unconventional" oils, including condensates, natural gas liquids, extra-heavy oils, and oils from ultra-deepwater sources.

I can't swear by CERA, but it is a highly regarded outfit. And even if it's only partly right, the most dire forecasts of runaway oil prices will not come to pass. The economic future suddenly looks much brighter. As serious wealth builders, we should all breathe a small, cautious sigh of relief.

polycarp wrote: By Andrew Gordon



Nobody wants but everybody seems to expect a worldwide oil shortage, along with super-spikes in oil prices that will lead to long lines at the fuel pump and thinner wallets.

Plentiful oil and falling oil prices seem to be a pipe dream to almost everybody ... but not to Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA). Its recent report declares that oil production will go up and not down ... and that oil prices will go down and not up. It expects oil prices to drop to below $40 a barrel by 2007 or 2008. Oil production will peak sometime after 2020 and enter into a gentle decline thereafter. Much of the extra production capacity will be in "unconventional" oils, including condensates, natural gas liquids, extra-heavy oils, and oils from ultra-deepwater sources.

I can't swear by CERA, but it is a highly regarded outfit. And even if it's only partly right, the most dire forecasts of runaway oil prices will not come to pass. The economic future suddenly looks much brighter. As serious wealth builders, we should all breathe a small, cautious sigh of relief.


That is interesting. I wonder who will prove to be right.

Also, did you see this report?

Earth's mantle can generate methane - Nature

Date: Monday, September 20 @ 10:06:27 PDT

Topic: Geology; Reservers; Oil Fields

Methane could be forming in Earth's mantle, US scientists have shown. The result suggests that untapped and unexpected reserves of natural gas and oil may exist deep beneath the planet's surface.