Friday 13th March Oscar's tip to beat the crunch

Post by **Oscar Namechange** » Thu Feb 19, 2009 9:36 am

I have been banging on about this for some weeks now but what a fantastic date in the racing calender to see the two rivals 'Denman' and 'Kauto Star' come head to head again? And what a way to beat the credit crunch blues?

If you don't want to give the bookies your money then perhaps Sir Spot would like to offer up some casino dollers in what the racing press has described as 'The mother of all re-matches' this year in The Cheltenham Gold Cup on Friday 13th.

'Denman' is out to keep last years cup and 'Kauto Star' is out for revenge. The bookies and racing press give this race to no other horse in the race barr these two but there is one or two horses that could be a danger to both.

'Denman' has been the bookies favourite to win but after reports of a heart murmer, 'Kauto Star' has been backed heavilly into favourite at todays price of:

6/4 Kauto seeing Denamn pushed out to 100/30.

My own personal advice for anyone betting on this race now would be:

Given the short odds for both horses.....wait until the day and do not bet anti-post now.

The prices will fluctuate on the day on the course taking into account the fitness of the horses on the day and the going.

'Kauto Star' needs the going to be firm to hard. If it's hard on the day in his favour, the odds could be reduced further. Other, if the going is soft, 'Denman's odds could be shortened.

On the day, other runners depending on their fitness will also get backed down. It is the course bookmakers who determine the odds in your high street betting office.

If you can't decide between the two, put a bet on a 'reveresed fore-cast' at your bookies. It's double the stake money but means either horse can come in Ist or 2nd for you to get a payout.

With Oscar's tip for 3rd horse, you can place a 'Triple fore-cast' by naming 'Denman', 'Kauto' and the 3rd horse. This will get you a larger payout if the 3 horses come in 1st, 2nd and 3rd in any order.

You can also bet on the 3rd horse who will be greater odds for an 'each-way' bet. This means he only needs to be placed for you to win some money but remember that if he doesn't win, you will get one quarter of the odds.

The horse i believe could be the only threat to the two favourites ran at Cheltenham last year and from what i saw, is a fine jumper and a likely third for this years race.

THE RUNNERS

511-225 AIR FORCE ONE (GER) 7 Brian Walsh (Co Kildare) Charlie Mann

113-4P23 ALBERTAS RUN (IRE) 8 Trevor Hemmings Jonjo O'Neill

3/00010- ARTEEA (IRE) 10 Judith & Tina Wilson David Pipe

4121-21 BARBERS SHOP 7 The Queen Nicky Henderson

1301-U11 BIG BUCK'S (FR) 6 The Stewart Family Paul Nicholls

0P/50PP- CERIUM (FR) 8 Judith & Tina Wilson Paul Murphy

11/1111-2 DENMAN (IRE) 9 Maggie Findlay & Paul Barber Paul Nicholls

353-231 EXOTIC DANCER (FR) 9 Sir Robert Ogden Jonjo O'Neill

3242-232 HALCON GENELARDAIS (FR) 9 Ian Payne & Kim Franklin Alan King

3/114-16 IMPERIAL COMMANDER (IRE) 8 Our Friends in the North Nigel Twiston-Davies

122-1U1 KAUTO STAR (FR) 9 Clive Smith Paul Nicholls

16UP-10 KNOWHERE (IRE) 11 Raymond Mould Nigel Twiston-Davies

425F-611 MADISON DU BERLAIS (FR) 8 Roger Stanley & Yvonne Reynolds II David Pipe

112P-0UU MIKO DE BEAUCHENE (FR) 9 Andrew Wiles Robert & Sally Alner

05/5400-P MILAN DEUX MILLE (FR) 7 Judith Wilson David Pipe

32023/-5 MY WILL (FR) 9 The Stewart Family Paul Nicholls

1/3131-F NEPTUNE COLLONGES (FR) 8 John Hales Paul Nicholls

63P-411 NOTRE PERE (FR) 8 Tillie Conway Jim Dreaper IRE

2112/-U1P NOZIC (FR) 8 Sam Mcvie Paul Nicholls

3/2211-P OUR VIC (IRE) 11 David Johnson David Pipe

1225-13P ROLL ALONG (IRE) 9 Bryan & Philippa Burrough Carl Llewellyn

331320P SNOOPY LOOPY (IRE) 11 Walters Plant Hire Ltd Egan Waste Ltd Peter Bowen

332-56F SNOWY MORNING (IRE) 9 Quayside Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE

1/11/3-024 STAR DE MOHAISON (FR) 8 Sir Robert Ogden Paul Nicholls

2560-14 STATE OF PLAY 9 Mr & Mrs William Rucker Evan Williams

315-42F THE LISTENER (IRE) 10 Old Moss Farm Nick Mitchell

4142-132 THYNE AGAIN (IRE) 8 Simply The Best Syndicate Liam Burke IRE

23/-1132 WAR OF ATTRITION (IRE) 10 Gigginstown House Stud Mouse Morris IRE

The numbers at the side of the horse are his placings in his last races with most recent on the inner.

To me, the racing pundits and the bookies, this is a two-horse race between 'Denman' and 'Kauto'. Even with 'Denman's' recent scare, i still belive he can only be out-classed by one horse.

The horse i believe could be a possible danger to the two is........................ EXOTIC DANCER. God Forbid that 'Kauto' makes another horrendous blunder on the last fence or either 'Denman' or 'Kauto' fall or be brought down, Exotic Dancer is in fine form to take the Gold Cup.

For the 4th place i reccomend WAR OF ATTRITION.

I have seen Exotic dancer and War of Attrition run myself and and believe they are the best 'stayers' on the gruelling distance.

Do NOT back KNOWHERE. I backed him at Cheltenham last year and he came NO-WHERE :wah:

OVER TO SPOT FOR SOME CASINO DOLLARS ODDS NOW

COME ON KAUTO STAR..... WE WANT REVENGE ON DENMAN

Post by **Oscar Namechange** » Thu Feb 19, 2009 9:47 am

You keep jumping like this Kauto and it's yours:

:-4:-4:-4

Attached files

Post by **Oscar Namechange** » Thu Feb 19, 2009 9:51 am

Latest prices

exotic dancer..... 12/1

war of attrition..... 25/1

qsducks · Post by **qsducks** » Thu Feb 19, 2009 11:53 am

Send me details Oscar via email. that's my birthday dear.

Post by **Oscar Namechange** » Thu Feb 19, 2009 11:59 am

qsducks;1140011 wrote: Send me details Oscar via email. that's my birthday dear.

Certainly shall Duckie and I'll send you a card for your birthday as well.

If you don't have any relatives over here, I can put a bet on for you, if you win, I could take the stake out and post you the winnings!!!!!

qsducks · Post by **qsducks** » Thu Feb 19, 2009 12:05 pm

oscar;1140020 wrote: Certainly shall Duckie and I'll send you a card for your birthday as well.

If you don't have any relatives over here, I can put a bet on for you, if you win, I could take the stake out and post you the winnings!!!!!

Oh baby yes!:wah: No relly's in England that I know of.

Post by **Oscar Namechange** » Thu Feb 19, 2009 12:18 pm

qsducks;1140029 wrote: Oh baby yes!:wah: No relly's in England that I know of.
No problem and i keep my word. I've still got your address from Christmas so take your pick of the runners on the first post and tell me how much you want to bet. I'll put the bet on with my brother the bookie on the course on the day as i'm sure i'll get better odds out of him.

I will update this thread with news building up to the race on all runners if you don't want to choose straight away.

As i said, I can just deduct your stake from any winnings and post you the rest. I can even get it changed into dollers as well.

I wish you could be there. The Festival is on for three days ending with the Gold Cup on the last day. Over the three days the excitement on the course builds up to a frenzy by the time the runners are paraded for the Gold Cup. My bro lets me off for a while to go down and watch them parade. I'm soooooooooooo excited.

I've got £500 on Kauto Star already and I'll probably add more on the day in the excitement. I will have a bet on 'Denamn' for a straight win and Exotic Dancer and War of Attrition for a place to safeguard some money.

qsducks · Post by **qsducks** » Thu Feb 19, 2009 12:23 pm

You seem to be more in the know than I am so I'll go with your picks too. I've never betted before so this does sound exciting. Thank you my friend...I still have your Christmas card up on my wall too. Too cold to take them down for now but come spring..........:wah: email me your birthday and I will send something over.

Post by **Oscar Namechange** » Thu Feb 19, 2009 12:30 pm

qsducks;1140055 wrote: You seem to be more in the know than I am so I'll go with your picks too. I've never betted before so this does sound exciting. Thank you my friend...I still have your Christmas card up on my wall too. Too cold to take them down for now but come spring..........:wah: email me your birthday and I will send something over. Mr O took down the cards after christmas but we put yours on the kitchen notice board as it's signed by the Philli's of course.

Do you want to bet?

1) Straight win Kauto Star?

2) Straight win 'Denamn'?

3) Reversed fore-cast Denman and Kauto to come in any order of 1st or 2nd?

4) Each way bet on Exotic Dancer or War of Attrition?

5) tri-cast on Kauto, denamn and Exotic Dancer to come in any order of 1st, 2ns or 3rd?

6) all of the above? And how much?

Post by **Oscar Namechange** » Thu Feb 19, 2009 12:37 pm

Exotic dancer

Attached files

Post by **Oscar Namechange** » Thu Feb 19, 2009 12:40 pm

'war of attrition'

Attached files

qsducks · Post by **qsducks** » Thu Feb 19, 2009 12:41 pm

oscar;1140064 wrote: Mr O took down the cards after christmas but we put yours on the kitchen notice board as it's signed by the Philli's of course.

Do you want to bet?

1) Straight win Kauto Star?

2) Straight win 'Denamn'?

3) Reversed fore-cast Denman and Kauto to come in any order of 1st or 2nd?

4) Each way bet on Exotic Dancer or War of Attrition?

5) tri-cast on Kauto, denamn and Exotic Dancer to come in any order of 1st, 2ns or 3rd?

6) all of the above? And how much?

I'll go with all of the above and $20 bucks.

Post by **Oscar Namechange** » Thu Feb 19, 2009 12:49 pm

qsducks;1140080 wrote: I'll go with all of the above and $20 bucks.

Your on..... I shall even post a pic of your betting slip on the day so you can see i did it. I hope to be near enough to get some pics of Kauto coming over the winning line.

Let's hope we don't see a repeat of the 1967 Grand National which was titled in racing history as 'Disaster at the 23rd'. 'Foinavon' a donkey was one of only few horses left standing after a mass pile up on the 23rd fence. He won at 100/1. 26 horses were brought down.

'At fence number 23 (or seven, depending on the circuit), a melee occurred that dramatically changed Grand National history. The fence itself is only four-and-a-half feet, one of the lowest jumps on the course, but Popham Down was tiring without his jockey. Suddenly, Popham Down veered to his right and slammed into Rutherfords. This started a domino effect, unseating riders and leaving the path strewn with downed jockeys and confused horses.'

qsducks · Post by **qsducks** » Thu Feb 19, 2009 12:53 pm

Brutal sport sounds like. Yes, at the Kentucky Derby a year ago one of the horses went down and broke both legs, the vets killed the horse on the spot.

Post by **Oscar Namechange** » Thu Feb 19, 2009 1:06 pm

qsducks;1140100 wrote: Brutal sport sounds like. Yes, at the Kentucky Derby a year ago one of the horses went down and broke both legs, the vets killed the horse on the spot.

That is the downside of the sport. I've seen many races where the tent comes out. Nowadays, providing they don't break their neck, they are operated on and retire. Our Grand National is the most gruelling race we have here. I've always wanted to see the 'Kentucky Derby'. I love Greyhound Racing as well. My bro has a few that race but the winnings are a pittence.

At last years Gold Cup, Princess Anee was there. It does get alot of famous people there but I'm hoping Gordon Brown goes this year :wah:

qsducks · Post by **qsducks** » Thu Feb 19, 2009 1:12 pm

oscar;1140118 wrote: That is the downside of the sport. I've seen many races where the tent comes out. Nowadays, providing they don't break their neck, they are operated on and retire. Our Grand National is the most gruelling race we have here. I've always wanted to see the 'Kentucky Derby'. I love Greyhound Racing as well. My bro has a few that race but the winnings are a pittence.

At last years Gold Cup, Princess Anee was there. It does get alot of famous people there but I'm hoping Gordon Brown goes this year :wah:

Your queen was here for the Derby. Crowd was very excited. I read somewhere that the horses for the Derby are usually so inbred that they get hurt easily. Still, it's exciting to watch.

Post by **Oscar Namechange** » Thu Feb 19, 2009 1:19 pm

qsducks;1140123 wrote: Your queen was here for the Derby. Crowd was very excited. I read somewhere that the horses for the Derby are usually so inbred that they get hurt easily. Still, it's exciting to watch. She loves her racing :wah: She's owned some fabulous horses in racing history here. I believe this was when she was at your Derby.

Queen of England checks out Kentucky Derby - Horse Racing - nbcsports.msnbc.com

Alot of people here will bet on the Queen's horses even if they are not rated.