Election guessing game

Bruv · Post by **Bruv** » Sat May 02, 2015 1:41 pm

Lets see who if anybody has their finger on the pulse.

No prizes, but lets see if we cant predict who will form a Government next week.

Or how many seats the upstart UKIP will win

Seriously I reckon Milliband might just squeeze in...............somehow.

UKIP might, just might get 2, but I predict only one.

FourPart · Post by **FourPart** » Sat May 02, 2015 1:51 pm

I sometimes wonder how the polls are formed. That is, are they based on numbers in general, or according to regions. For instance, a small heavily populated area is likely to be primarily Labour. However, if it is surrounded by low population countrified wards those are more likely to be Tory. Therefore, polls taken from that overall area might show a clear 80% majority for labour, but if there is just one seat in the industrial area, and one each in the surrounding 4, then the Tories are more likely to take the lead according to seats, also by 80% majority.

Bruv · Post by **Bruv** » Sat May 02, 2015 3:26 pm

I should imagine they are a little more scientific than your over simplification.

Of course they are only a wet finger held in the wind, but I don't suppose they use Knightsbridge High st every time.

Smaug · Post by **Smaug** » Sat May 02, 2015 4:00 pm

As I remember, we used to have something called "the rotten boroughs"; these boroughs often had very low populations (a couple of villages and a hamlet or two) under the "stewardship" of the local Lord, or major employer/bigwig.Naturally, the locals knew "which side their bread was buttered", and duly voted for the local bigwig, who would then become an MP. . This problem was compounded by cities and towns sometimes being able to elect only 1 or 2 MPs, hence the "rotten boroughs", as a fairly substantial number of rural MPs were elected by a tiny population.

Though it's not as bad as that today, electoral boundaries have been "manipulated", shall we say, giving the major parties the best chance of an election win, in my opinion. I think one good solution to this problem (and voter apathy) is to switch to proportional representation, as this would make for a truer representation of party popularity, and would seriously undermine attempts at gerrymandering electoral boundaries.

As for the election, who can tell....my Cousin works in construction and travels the length and breadth of this country; he says he is seeing UKIP posters all over the place....however, I also know that, with the boundaries the way they are, UKIP could poll 25-30% of the vote nationwide, yet may return as few as 2 or 3 MPs. Even if you don't support UKIP, a system that fails to take account of such a large vote percentage is defunct and unrepresentative, especially in this (so called) enlightened age. ANY party polling this level of support deserves to be a bona fide contender for government, as it would be in , for example, France.

FourPart · Post by **FourPart** » Sun May 03, 2015 12:52 am

And despite SNP saying that the primary goal is to get a Tory Government out, their very existence is helping them to get back in by threatening previously secure Labour seats. Even SNP accept that there's no way they're going to get an SNP Government, and they've been told that there will be no coalition ('told' being the operative word, of course). As things are it's a 2 Horse Race with 50/50 odds between Labour & Tory. If the SNP were to stand down the Tories wouldn't stand a chance & the SNP goal would be achieved.

Smaug · Post by **Smaug** » Sun May 03, 2015 3:07 am

FourPart;1478465 wrote: And despite SNP saying that the primary goal is to get a Tory Government out, their very existence is helping them to get back in by threatening previously secure Labour seats. Even SNP accept that there's no way they're going to get an SNP Government, and they've been told that there will be no coalition ('told' being the operative word, of course). As things are it's a 2 Horse Race with 50/50 odds between Labour & Tory. If the SNP were to stand down the Tories wouldn't stand a chance & the SNP goal would be achieved.

If I were to "stick my neck out" to predict a winner, I'd say we'll get an emasculated minority labour government, propped up by the SNP.

In all likelihood though, we'll end up with a minority tory government propped up by UKIP, and other minor bit-player parties, a shaky coalition reminiscent of Italian governance.

My decision is....maybe.... and that's final!!

Bruv · Post by **Bruv** » Sun May 03, 2015 4:45 am

Smaug;1478469 wrote: If I were to "stick my neck out" to predict a winner, I'd say we'll get an emasculated minority labour government, propped up by the SNP.

In all likelihood though, we'll end up with a minority tory government propped up by UKIP, and other minor bit-player parties, a shaky coalition reminiscent of Italian governance.

My decision is....maybe.... and that's final!!

The only thing you haven't guesstimated is SNP for an all over majority.

Smaug · Post by **Smaug** » Sun May 03, 2015 7:46 am

Bruv;1478470 wrote: The only thing you haven't guesstimated is SNP for an all over majority.

They havn't enough for an overall majority in Westminster, but they may well return enough MPs to be the third party. King-maker, in all probability, unless UKIP have a good return. We shall see.

There is an ancient Chinese curse which runs: " May you live in interesting times". I have certainly never known such a political flux in this country all my life, and what will emerge from it, nobody knows. If it's more of the same , then may God have pity on us, is all I can say. In my opinion,this poor country is lurching back to Dickensian values at an alarming rate, with tones of industrial dictatorship to boot...

FourPart · Post by **FourPart** » Sun May 03, 2015 9:44 am

Tories are claiming that they only need 23 seats to get an outright majority. Therefore if SNP withdraw 25 of their candidates who stand a realistic chance of taking a previously safe Labour seat, job done. Tories out, with SNP still having a say.

Smaug · Post by **Smaug** » Sun May 03, 2015 10:21 am

FourPart;1478479 wrote: Tories are claiming that they only need 23 seats to get an outright majority. Therefore if SNP withdraw 25 of their candidates who stand a realistic chance of taking a previously safe Labour seat, job done. Tories out, with SNP still having a say.

Not sure I'm keen of having Ed Moribund, sorry, Miliband, as PM, I think he' an indecisive,"any-which-way-the-wind-blows" man, desperate for election victory at any cost, rather like all the others, really. I think Nicola Sturgeon will have him for breakfast, with "Carry-on", sorry, Cameron, as dessert! As I say, the SNP could well be king-maker, or, as you say, "pull the plug" on some of their candidates..... a mess either way. I say learn the lessons of history, let's not tread the path to dissolution.

Post by **spot** » Sun May 03, 2015 11:56 am

Bruv;1478455 wrote: Lets see who if anybody has their finger on the pulse.
The Conservatives lose 10 seats overall,

Labour loses 25 seats overall,

The Liberal Democrats lose 10 seats overall

UKIP get none

Labour + Liberal Democrats won't amount to a majority,

Labour + SNP won't amount to a majority,

The SNP would rather close shop than make a deal with the Conservatives,

Which leaves the current alliance as the only game in town, with a comfortable absolute majority of around 50.

To be honest, given that Cameron is still going to be in office, I'd quite like to see the Labour vote utterly collapse as payback for insulting the country by trying to foist that lifeless prat Miliband on the nation. It will make no difference to the next five years of Tory Misrule.

Bruv · Post by **Bruv** » Sun May 03, 2015 1:15 pm

spot;1478486 wrote: The Conservatives lose 10 seats overall,

Labour loses 25 seats overall,

The Liberal Democrats lose 10 seats overall

UKIP get none

Labour + Liberal Democrats won't amount to a majority,

Labour + SNP won't amount to a majority,

The SNP would rather close shop than make a deal with the Conservatives,

Which leaves the current alliance as the only game in town, with a comfortable absolute majority of around 50.

To be honest, given that Cameron is still going to be in office, I'd quite like to see the Labour vote utterly collapse as payback for insulting the country by trying to foist that lifeless prat Miliband on the nation. It will make no difference to the next five years of Tory Misrule.

Who is gaining the 45 seats ?

Not bloody UKIP ?

Post by **spot** » Sun May 03, 2015 1:21 pm

Bruv;1478490 wrote: Who is gaining the 45 seats ?

Not bloody UKIP ?

The SNP, from 6 to 55. Labour picks up the dropped Conservative and Liberal Democrat seats south of the border, and loses twice number that in Scotland.

FourPart · Post by **FourPart** » Sun May 03, 2015 1:25 pm

The point is that everyone is basing evreything on the personality of the leaders. Of course, like it or not, the personalities are a major influence in the elections, but the actual policies tend to slip to the side.

Party policies aside, who do you think would make the best PM - and not restricted to current leaders.

Post by **spot** » Sun May 03, 2015 1:26 pm

FourPart;1478492 wrote: Party policies aside, who do you think would make the best PM - and not restricted to current leaders.

George Galloway.

FourPart · Post by **FourPart** » Sun May 03, 2015 1:27 pm

I like Boris.

gmc · Post by **gmc** » Sun May 03, 2015 2:19 pm

The libdems have 11 scottish MP's it's quite possible they will lose at least some of them. Also they have managed to antagonise their core support many will not forgive them and clearly they cannot be trusted I would not be surprised if they ceased io be a political force after the election it's also possible nick clegg will no longer be an MP after the election. Their suppprters will probably not bother voting south of the border what alternative do they have? I can't see the tories getting their votesIn scotland there is the snp. Bear in mind they have ben running the country for some years latterly with a majority prior to that in a coalition. That leaves the snp as the third largest party in the UK and if the rhetoric that the snp should not be allowed to take part in the westminster parliament despite all the promises made during the referendum debate and having voted to stay in the union you can't have it both ways, stay in the union and by the way don't vote for policies we don't like just shut up and vote for the status quo a coalition formed of parties and with policies that the scots have voted against - democracy in action - and they wonder why snp number are apparently growing.

Ruth davidson has actually been doing a good job for the conservatives Cameron has made her task hopeless. Jim murphy (or the wee ginger dug as he gets called) has had the feet knocked from under him with the westminster party

Scottish Labour is in charge of decisions in Scotland, Jim Murphy insists | Politics | The Guardian

Later, speaking on the Daily Politics, the shadow business secretary, Chuka Umunna, put it even more bluntly. “The leader of the Scottish Labour party will not be in charge of the UK budget, in what was interpreted as a direct rebuke to Murphy as Ed Miliband attempted to rebrand Labour at his manifesto launch as the party of fiscal responsibility.

Right now scots are highly politicised people talk about this stuff to total strangers.

I don;t know what is going to happen but I would place a bet oin the libdems being all but wiped out.

Bruv · Post by **Bruv** » Sun May 03, 2015 2:57 pm

OK I got it, we are all having a laugh.

Right what about Blair for PM ?

Or if he's busy Brown.

Post by **spot** » Sun May 03, 2015 5:27 pm

Ed Miliband is a grotesque embarrassment to the Labour movement.

Gordon Brown was a grotesque embarrassment to the Labour movement.

Tony Blair was a grotesque embarrassment to the Labour movement.

John Smith would have been a magnificent Labour Prime Minister had he not died before the election.

That Welsh Windbag was a grotesque embarrassment to the Labour movement.

Jim Callaghan might have been more impressive had he had an economic base to build from.

It's a long time since we had a respectable Labour Prime Minister but my goodness, Ed Miliband won't ever fit the bill.

Where's the next Harold Wilson when you need one.

"Who do you think would make the best PM"? - Ken Livingstone, please. He's been there, he's done it, he presumably has the shirt too.

gmc · Post by **gmc** » Mon May 04, 2015 12:32 am

FourPart;1478494 wrote: I like Boris.

I like boris as well but he's a racist mysogynist

Boris Johnson warns of chaos of Labour-SNP deal | Daily Mail Online

It's Ajockalypse Now!' Boris warns of chaos of Labour-SNP deal and mocks Miliband as 'one-legged millipede that goes left, left, left'

Funny but if he made that kind of comment about any other sector of the population it would be seen as racist and designed to stir up hatred.Sometimes Left left left is better than right right right.

Bruv · Post by **Bruv** » Mon May 04, 2015 5:56 am

spot;1478505 wrote: Ed Miliband is a grotesque embarrassment to the Labour movement.

Gordon Brown was a grotesque embarrassment to the Labour movement.

Tony Blair was a grotesque embarrassment to the Labour movement.

John Smith would have been a magnificent Labour Prime Minister had he not died before the election.

That Welsh Windbag was a grotesque embarrassment to the Labour movement.

Jim Callaghan might have been more impressive had he had an economic base to build from.

It's a long time since we had a respectable Labour Prime Minister but my goodness, Ed Miliband won't ever fit the bill.

Where's the next Harold Wilson when you need one.

"Who do you think would make the best PM"? - Ken Livingstone, please. He's been there, he's done it, he presumably has the shirt too.

I agree................surprisingly.

Post by **spot** » Mon May 04, 2015 6:11 am

Bruv;1478534 wrote: I agree................surprisingly.

I deliberately left Michael Foot off the list. I liked Michael Foot but he wasn't really PM material at all.

Bruv · Post by **Bruv** » Mon May 04, 2015 8:07 am

spot;1478537 wrote: I deliberately left Michael Foot off the list. I liked Michael Foot but he wasn't really PM material at all.

And omitted Tony Benn because ?

Post by **spot** » Mon May 04, 2015 8:15 am

Bruv;1478547 wrote: And omitted Tony Benn because ?

He, unlike the others listed, was never leader of the Labour Party.

Bruv · Post by **Bruv** » Mon May 04, 2015 8:17 am

spot;1478549 wrote: He, unlike the others listed, was never leader of the Labour Party.

I must have missed Red Kens term then.

FourPart · Post by **FourPart** » Mon May 04, 2015 8:21 am

Doesn't have to have been a leader of the party. Just which politicians would be better suited to take up the PM-ship right now. It may be a case of lesser of evils, but who else is there?

Bruv · Post by **Bruv** » Mon May 04, 2015 8:39 am

How about Jeremy Corbyn ?

Smaug · Post by **Smaug** » Mon May 04, 2015 8:50 am

Yes, where are the STATESMEN when you need them? There's a saying; "cometh the hour, cometh the man", but I think you've got to add Nicola Sturgeon (aarrrgh!) to the list. She'd have 'em all on toast!

FourPart · Post by **FourPart** » Mon May 04, 2015 8:54 am

Bruv;1478555 wrote: How about Jeremy Corbyn ?

He seems to have an interesting background, although I think we need someone a little more to the Centre Ground.

Post by **spot** » Mon May 04, 2015 8:54 am

Bruv;1478550 wrote: I must have missed Red Kens term then.

You might notice, if you look, that I prefixed that sentence with a quote of the question I was moving on to address - "Who do you think would make the best PM"?.

Bruv · Post by **Bruv** » Mon May 04, 2015 9:01 am

FourPart;1478561 wrote: He seems to have an interesting background, although I think we need someone a little more to the Centre Ground.

Oh no we don't.

Bruv · Post by **Bruv** » Mon May 04, 2015 9:01 am

spot;1478562 wrote: You might notice, if you look, that I prefixed that sentence with a quote of the question I was moving on to address - "Who do you think would make the best PM"?.

You can be hard work.

Post by **spot** » Thu May 07, 2015 12:27 pm

So, eyes down, look in. The polls close in ninety minutes.

Post by **spot** » Thu May 07, 2015 12:36 pm

I'll be interested to see the turnout. I'd hope it has started to rise but that's just optimism.

Bruv · Post by **Bruv** » Thu May 07, 2015 12:40 pm

My Polling station said they had not been busy.

Post by **spot** » Thu May 07, 2015 1:17 pm

I haven't looked at any news today, I'll browse to the bbc site in a half hour.

Post by **Betty Boop** » Thu May 07, 2015 1:35 pm

spot;1478794 wrote: I'll be interested to see the turnout. I'd hope it has started to rise but that's just optimism.

Turnout is noticeably higher in the two polling stations I visited this evening.

flopstock · Post by **flopstock** » Thu May 07, 2015 1:36 pm

What is the expected % of turnout?

Bruv · Post by **Bruv** » Thu May 07, 2015 1:39 pm

spot;1478796 wrote: I haven't looked at any news today, I'll browse to the bbc site in a half hour.

Turn your telly on......it's a suitable use for the tool.

Bruv · Post by **Bruv** » Thu May 07, 2015 1:41 pm

Betty Boop;1478797 wrote: Turnout is noticeably higher in the two polling stations I visited this evening.

Deux Two but why ?

Bruv · Post by **Bruv** » Thu May 07, 2015 1:45 pm

flopstock;1478798 wrote: What is the expected % of turnout?

Hopefully upward of 60 plus percent

Post by **Betty Boop** » Thu May 07, 2015 2:10 pm

Bruv;1478800 wrote: Deux Two but why ?

If only I could vote twice hey!

:wah:

My brother was a presiding officer at a polling station not too far from my actual polling station so I popped in to say hello and ask if they needed anything.

Post by **LarsMac** » Thu May 07, 2015 2:18 pm

As they used to say in Chicago, "Vote early, vote often."

Post by **spot** » Thu May 07, 2015 2:27 pm

Hah! If the BBC exit poll report is right, no feasible combination of parties can form a workable majority.

Election 2015: Exit poll puts Tories close to majority - BBC News

We may have another election in a couple of months.

Post by **Betty Boop** » Thu May 07, 2015 3:39 pm

Takes forever for our results to come in. They don't start counting until the morning.

Bruv · Post by **Bruv** » Thu May 07, 2015 3:44 pm

Betty Boop;1478803 wrote: If only I could vote twice hey!

:wah:

My brother was a presiding officer at a polling station not too far from my actual polling station so I popped in to say hello and ask if they needed anything.

Thats a relief..............I thought I might have to shop you.

FourPart · Post by **FourPart** » Thu May 07, 2015 3:52 pm

There's been a case of multiple voting reported in Sunderland - as if it's really needed there

Bruv · Post by **Bruv** » Thu May 07, 2015 3:57 pm

FourPart;1478812 wrote: There's been a case of multiple voting reported in Sunderland - as if it's really needed there

Might be TUSC

Post by **Bryn Mawr** » Thu May 07, 2015 4:11 pm

Bruv;1478801 wrote: Hopefully upward of 60 plus percent

Just under in each of the three seats declared so far.

Post by **spot** » Thu May 07, 2015 4:55 pm

FourPart;1478812 wrote: There's been a case of multiple voting reported in Sunderland - as if it's really needed there

It's pleasing to see the vigilance with which it's stamped on...

From the BBC running log:

Fraud fears

Posted at 23:22

Police are investigating suspicions that someone entered a polling station in Glasgow East and crossed a ballot paper under another person's name.