Europe uneasy after Russia cuts Ukraine gas supply

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polycarp
Posts: 618
Joined: Tue Jan 04, 2005 9:00 am

Europe uneasy after Russia cuts Ukraine gas supply

Post by polycarp »

http://www.businessdayonline.com/?c=125&a=3773

Russia, taking over the G8 chairmanship for the first time this month aiming to promote itself as a reliable energy source, cut its neighbour’s gas supplies on Sunday.

Moscow said it had no choice but to act after Kiev refused to sign a new contract that would have jacked up prices fourfold, ending the preferential treatment of Soviet days.

The Kremlin describes the dispute as a purely commercial matter. But Kiev sees an attempt to undermine its pro-Western government and says cutting Ukrainian supplies will undermine deliveries passing through the same pipeline complex to Europe.

The move appeared to be affecting deliveries to central Europe by early evening, with both Hungary and Poland reporting reduced deliveries.

Washington stepped into the row, with the State Department saying it regretted Russia’s move.

“Such an abrupt step creates insecurity in the energy sector in the region and raises serious questions about the use of energy to exert political pressure,” State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said in a statement.

“The U.S. has encouraged a compromise solution, and we remain hopeful that a resolution will be reached between the two sides that provides energy security and predictability for all concerned.”

Western Europe, where demand is near peak levels because of freezing weather, imports 25 percent of its gas from Russia, with most of that delivered by pipelines running across Ukraine.

The Russian state monopoly, Gazprom, said enough gas was still being piped via Ukraine to meet its commitments to other countries. If they were not getting all their gas, it said that meant Ukraine was tapping into it.



GAS PLEASE

Hungary’s gas wholesaler MOL said its Russian deliveries via Ukraine had fallen by more than 25 percent, forcing it to order big consumers to switch to oil where possible. Poland also said supplies were down by 14 percent.

Germany’s largest gas supplier, E.ON-Ruhrgas, warned there could be problems for big wholesale customers if the dispute dragged on.

“If the reduction in supplies should prove to be especially large or last for a long time or the winter turns out to be especially cold, then we will hit the limits of our capacities,”chief executive Burckhard Bergmann said on Sunday.

German, Italian, French and Austrian energy ministers have made a joint appeal to Moscow and Kiev to keep gas flows steady and an emergency European Union meeting is due on Wednesday.

Western-leaning Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko is trying to take his state into the EU and NATO. This annoys Moscow, which does not like the idea that its influence over the former Soviet Union might be waning.

Ukrainian officials say that is why the Kremlin is punishing Ukraine with a huge price increase while giving Moscow-friendly ex-Soviet states such as Belarus a much easier ride.

Yushchenko, struggling to live up his people’s high hopes after the “Orange Revolution” a year ago, says Ukraine is prepared to pay more for its gas -- but will not agree to a big jump all at once. Moscow wants to raise the price to $230 per 1,000 cubic metres from the current $50.

Ukraine had threatened to retaliate by raising the rent that Russia’s navy pays to use the Ukrainian port of Sevastopol as headquarters for its Black Sea fleet.

It also says it is entitled to skim off 15 percent of gas to cover transit fees, but Gazprom is accusing Ukraine of siphoning off gas destined for Europe illegally.

Ukraine still has gas thanks to reserves and the country’s own modest output and officials say there is enough in store to see households through the winter.

But they are making no comment on the security of supplies to industry and shortages could begin to bite within days.
A formula for tact: "Be brief politely, be aggressive smilingly, be emphatic pleasantly, be positive diplomatically, be right graciously".
gmc
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Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2004 9:44 am

Europe uneasy after Russia cuts Ukraine gas supply

Post by gmc »

Depends how you chose to look at it, It brings the price more in line with what eec nations get charged for gas by Russia. If it was BP doing the same thing to say Norway nobody would blink an eye but see it as normal commercial practice. If anything such an acion is goimfg o reinforce the independence movement than undermine it. Go back to the old days of Russian dominance? Come off it. The pandoras box of political change has been opened and I doubt very much the lid will go back on.
gmc
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Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2004 9:44 am

Europe uneasy after Russia cuts Ukraine gas supply

Post by gmc »

Scrat wrote: Russia has nothing to gain by depriving Europe of energy. North of Moscow on the Murmansk penninsula there are gas fields simply going up in smoke. It is all slowely being captured and stored but it will take some years yet to complete the project.

What is Russia going to do with it? It's just gas so long as it sits underground. True, she can build a pipeline all of the way to China but I think it would be much more cost effective to pipe it to the Baltic and sell it to Europe would it not?

I think Europeans need to fear themselves and their inaction. Inaction against instigators and the entities that seek conflict with Russia.

I think europeans need to look at their leaders and worry about the not unlikely day when armies go crashing to the east once again (as they have in the past all too often) to what will be the deaths of millions and the enrichment of a few around the world.

Russia knows that friction and very possibly conflict is inevitable with the west, she has things to worry about also.


Perhaps, but I prefer to believe that the people would not just follow blindly in to another global conflict. This time they know what the battlefields are like and what thge lokely consequences of such a conflict would be. A european conflict would very rapidly become nuclear.

On the other hand I would agree with you that politicians who believe limited warfare is possible and are prepared to go to war against technologicaly inferior armies are a cause for concern as they might get us all in to a mess before they can be stopped.

Might find this of interest

http://www.twbookmark.com/books/72/0446602590/

http://members.tripod.com/~american_almanac/toffler.htm

http://www.catholicexchange.com/vm/inde ... t_id=10145

It reads almost like bad science fiction then you look at the world today.
gmc
Posts: 13566
Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2004 9:44 am

Europe uneasy after Russia cuts Ukraine gas supply

Post by gmc »

posted by scrat

I know that the people stood up to not only America and Russia but their own governments and played the major role in ending the coldwar in the 80's I do not think that when/if such a situation were to arise again you would get the same result.


What is different now is the pervasiveness of the internet and the difficulty big media companies are having in controlling it, the more they try the more people become aware of and resent the attempt. I'm thinking particularly of the impact music download has had. Ultimately the consumer will decide if they want to pay inflated prices for CD's etc or just listen and watch MTV. That is change that has taken place over the last twenty years and is still happening.

Came across this article, not sure of the source

http://www.oreilly.com/catalog/wemedia/book/ch05.pdf

The internet and mobile phones played a big part in the Ukraine as well. Some of the politicians in the Ukraine may be corrupt, but at least they are home grown corrupt politicians.

People are less ignorant of people other country's than the used to be, especially in Europe. Persuading people that others are evil just because they're foreign doesn't work the way it used to. Things like the world cup go a long way to bring people together, even if Scotland isn't in it next time.:-5

It is very rare now to meet someone has not been abroad at least once. Eastern europeans are beginning to turn up here on a regular basis-thanks to a new ferry route they don't have to drive through England any more to get here. Makes a change from the hordes of german and swedish bikers we usually get.

posted by scrat

Here in America there was a large peace movement, now there is little or nothing

because if you dare to criticize, dare to speak out, the price is heavy. Corporate control of the media is all but total as is their control of government

Europe has the same affliction. IMO.




I would agree with you about europe up to a point, but I reckon we are a lot readier to criticise out govt and leaders, no politician is stupid enough to call those who don't support the war unopatriotic and the ludicrous idea that if you don't support the war you support terrorism gets laughed out of sight. Folk just don't readily accept such stupid assertions. Maybe because we have a long experience of terrorism both here and on mainland europe but the idea that we need to have draconian security measures and that there is a "war" on terror that needs to be fought with massed armies just doesn't seem to take. Terrorists win when they get you to change your way of life and values. or maybe we are just by nature less trusting of politicians and have endless fun taking the **** out of them.

To be honest US internal politics are only of passing interest just as I am sure the fate of Charles Kennedy and the future of the liberal democrats in the UK is of passding interest to the.e average american. The imminent departure of TB is an intriguing possibility. i would give him less that six months.

Don't know about America apart from CNN and CBS and posters on this forum and occasional looks at Michael Moore who clearly has his own agenda. The news I see doesn't seem to go much for in depth analysis and skirts around issues, but it is hardly a representative sample. One bizarre thing is the fallen heroes feature they have CNN or CNS can't remember which. If any TV station did something like that IMO people here would find it deeply offensive and patronising propoganda.
gmc
Posts: 13566
Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2004 9:44 am

Europe uneasy after Russia cuts Ukraine gas supply

Post by gmc »

posted by scrat

I know that the internet in Europe is much more advanced than in America. Hopefully you are correct in your statement.




Are you sure? Kind of thought it was all pervasive there as it is here.

posted by scrat

He was not speaking to me or people like me. Roughly half the population of the country.


Interesting perspective. He can't stand again though can he?

We have a problem with out electoral system in that for the last 20years or so less than half the population have actualkly supported the party in power. We have a ludicrouis situation where TB got back in with less than 1/3 rd of the vote. The major parties don't make a big point of it as it suits them to keep the status quo. Hopefully we might see a sea change in attitude as so many are effectively disenfranchised they are getting annoyed.

There seems to be problems in the US as well with miscounted votes etc-although I'm not sure of the facts.

Maybe one of the biggest differences is that europe has had warfare right on it's doorstep with nary a family that didn't feel the effects. The simple patriotism card doesn't get much credence. There is tremendous hostility to the Iraq war with TB now having less than a third pf the voters agreeing with him.

We've also put up with terrorist attacks for years, islamic fundamentalists are just more of the same except suic

ide bombing is new.
gmc
Posts: 13566
Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2004 9:44 am

Europe uneasy after Russia cuts Ukraine gas supply

Post by gmc »

ArnoldLayne wrote: You're right . We dont have democracy, we have an electoral system. The whole world has some sort of electoral system of one type or another and we have the temerity to demand the rest of the world have this " democracy". I think we should be getting ours right first before foisting it on the rest of the world


You can't make people free they have to do learn how to do it for themselves. I also think it is a bad idea to encourage internal coups or support opposition groups in order to bring down govts because they don't have the "right" kind of freedom.
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