Are we really running out of oil?

K.Snyder · Post by **K.Snyder** » Thu Apr 14, 2005 3:40 am

I heard that at the rate in which we are consuming oil,"It is a possibility that we/or our children may run out of oil by the year 2060"."That is unless we discover more of it in the future".Has anyone else heard this or is it just a rediculouse rumor as of yet?

alobar51 · Post by **alobar51** » Thu Apr 14, 2005 9:16 am

K.Snyder wrote: I heard that at the rate in which we are consuming oil,"It is a possibility that we/or our children may run out of oil by the year 2060"."That is unless we discover more of it in the future".Has anyone else heard this or is it just a rediculouse rumor as of yet?

Google Hubbert's Peak.

That's where the calculations come from.

At risk of sounding cynical, I'm sure the oil cos. will own the technologies for alternative fuel sources before we run out.

Jives · Post by **Jives** » Thu Apr 14, 2005 10:20 am

It's true. I have been waiting for this news since 1982. That year, in engineering college, we ran a very sophisticated computer simulation about oil usage, new technologies and reserves. It included exploration and an estimation of possible undiscovered reserves.

We adjusted the variables every way we could. Even factoring in such things as solar power and consumer savviness for using lower amounts...

Nothing helped. The world ran out of oil in the 21st century every single time.

Worse yet, the little oil that remained by mid-century was exclusively reserved for military vehicles, emergency craft, medicines, plastics, and airlines. Your gasoline-car will go the way of the dinosaur long before the oil actually runs out.

It all reminds me of that show by Dr. Seuss......"The Lorax"

anastrophe · Post by **anastrophe** » Thu Apr 14, 2005 10:54 am

guess i'll be the voice of dissent.

nobody knows when we'll run out of oil. period. you can do all the sophisticated modeling you want - nobody knows when we'll run out of oil. who's to say that a vast sea of new oil won't be found under the south pacific oceans? or anywhere else on earth that *hasn't yet been explored*? there's also a somewhat compelling theory that oil did not come from 'fossils'. i believe the article is posted here on forumgarden, somewhere in the archives. it makes for some fascinating reading. i'll see if i can pull up a link.

furthermore, there's 'unconventional' oil reserves. think about this - the most optimistic estimates of world oil reserves are 1.77 trillion barrels of petroleum. the oil shales of Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, Kentucky, Ohio and Indiana are estimated to contain 2.0 trillion barrels of petroleum.

as technology advances - and the recoverability of conventional petroleum dwindles, the economics of extracting that oil will become more feasible.

anastrophe · Post by **anastrophe** » Thu Apr 14, 2005 10:57 am

i should note however, that i happen to love solar power. i think advances in solar electric efficiency in the next decade will render it all moot. solar panels that can generate ten times the power for the same surface area would render all other energy technologies obsolete, and there is real promise that this will occur.

every house will have it's own ten foot by ten foot solar array, with a small bank of lithium polymer batteries, and will have no need for conventional electricity. cars would have the solar array embedded in the roof.

petroleum will be considered 'quaint'.

anastrophe · Post by **anastrophe** » Thu Apr 14, 2005 10:59 am

here's the thread i was referring to:

http://www.forumgarden.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1183

Jives · Post by **Jives** » Thu Apr 14, 2005 11:04 am

We factored research and development into our simulation, Anastrophe. (And at a pretty generous pace too, I might add.)

You believe what you want, I'm airing up the tires on my bike this weekend!

anastrophe · Post by **anastrophe** » Thu Apr 14, 2005 11:27 am

Jives wrote: We factored research and development into our simulation, Anastrophe. (And at a pretty generous pace too, I might add.)

You believe what you want, I'm airing up the tires on my bike this weekend!

including oil shales? i'd be surprised if that were the case.

regardless: it's all a guess. nobody knows.

FJBear · Post by **FJBear** » Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:58 pm

Hi,

I do not believe that it is true. The same was said for 50 years ago and we are still consuming more and more of the black gold!

Check out the below link for some scary stats on oil consumption predictions!!

http://www.carbon-info.org/carboninfo_038.htm

minks · Post by **minks** » Tue Aug 02, 2005 2:57 pm

FJBear wrote: Hi,

I do not believe that it is true. The same was said for 50 years ago and we are still consuming more and more of the black gold!

Check out the below link for some scary stats on oil consumption predictions!!

http://www.carbon-info.org/carboninfo_038.htm

Not running out in our life times I would say. Couple factors,

Middle East is rich as heck in oil

Northern Alberta our Oil Sands, rich as heck and future is gleaming.

Techniques we can drill deeper in old sites, as well we can directional drill, meaning we can get to those hard to reach pockets because we can bend the drilling so start at "A" on the surface and drill the oil pocket at "B" beneath the surface.