Liberation Day

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Which is tomorrow - April 2nd 2025.

We can follow events here but I also got Claude to summarise a conversation this morning - it's brief and attached but too long to make a post from.

Economic Report_ Liberation Day Tariff Initiative.pdf

(21.61 KiB) Downloaded 12 times

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So - all sat by our radios, are we? Eight minutes to the start of the broadcast, President Trump in full flow, I can already imagine the words. "We're fighting for our right to live, to exist. From this day on, the second day of April will no longer be remembered as the day after All Fools but as the day that all of mankind declared 'we will not go quietly into the night'. We will not vanish without a fight. We will live on. We will survive!".

I'll be back.

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9:08 - Good lord I got his first two minutes practically exact!


9:10 - the man is a fantasist, that is so much none of it going to happen.

10pm: Well, there you are. All tariffs reciprocal, cut by 50% to allow subsequent negotiating headroom, with a Baseline on all imports into the US of 10%, which is what the UK will pay.

And all autos and auto parts, 25% minimum.

He even mentioned his chlorinated chicken corpses.

And unless I heard wrong, he banned all Australian beef from entry to America.

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And the list of countries exempted from reciprocal tariffs is, allegedly, "Cuba, Belarus, North Korea and Russia". in a throw-away aside in the Guardian I'll need to check.

The stock markets of the world, including the NYSE and DJI, are down. So long as they stay stable then down a bit is not a catastrophe.

And some morning-after reactions:

Reciprocal tarrifs could raise average US duty to 25%

The “reciprocal tariffs” Donald Trump announced today could raise the average US tariff rate to 25% from a current rate of about 3%, according to Omair Sharif, an economist and founder of Inflation Insights.

Sharif added that the duties would top the 20% rate imposed by the Smoot-Hawley tariffs levied in 1933, which were widely blamed for worsening the Great Depression.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/liv ... itics-news

Treasury secretary Scott Bessent has told foreign leaders processing the news of the United States’s “reciprocal tarrifs” to “sit back, take a deep breath, don’t immediately retaliate”.

Speaking with CNN this evening, Bessent added:

“A trade war depends on the country. But remember that the history of trade is we are the deficit country. The deficit country has an advantage. They are the surplus countries. The surplus countries traditionally, always lose any kind of trade escalation.”

Bessent added that “doing anything rash would be unwise.”

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The British, of all people, have published a 417-page "indicative product list to demonstrate what products may be subject to any future UK tariff response" - an unexpectedly prompt slap at the colonies.

Allow me to browse.

We might add additional tariffs to any imports from the US of:

Fresh, chilled or frozen meat and edible offal (excl. bovine animals, swine,
sheep, goats, horses, asses, mules, hinnies, poultry, rabbits, hares, primates,
whales, dolphins and porpoises [mammals of the order Cetacea], manatees
and dugongs [mammals of the order Sirenia], seals, sea lions and walruses
[mammals of the suborder Pinnipedia], reptiles, pigeons, game, reindeer,
frogs' legs and insects

(thank goodness for the exclusions, I'd hate to be deprived of those at Tesco)

Fertilised eggs for incubation, of domestic turkeys or domestic geese

Plants and parts of plants, incl. seeds and fruits, used primarily in perfumery,
in pharmacy or for insecticidal, fungicidal or similar purposes, fresh, chilled,
frozen or dried, whether or not cut, crushed or powdered (excl. ginseng roots,
coca leaf, poppy straw, ephedra, tonquin beans and bark of African cherry)

Surface-active preparations put up for retail sale (excl. organic surface-active
preparations in the form of bars, cakes, moulded pieces or shapes, and
organic surface-active products and preparations for washing the skin in the
form of liquid or cream)

(That's sorted Boots the Pharmaceutical accessoriser shop)

Basketwork, wickerwork and other articles, made directly to shape from
bamboo plaiting materials or made up from goods of bamboo plaiting materials
of heading 4601, and articles of loofah (excl. wallcoverings of heading 4814;
twine, cord and rope; footware and headgear and parts thereof; vehicles and
vehicle superstructures; goods of chapter 94, e.g. furniture, lighting fixtures)

(There's another billion dollars of trade up in smoke then)

Table linen, knitted or crocheted

Exfoliated vermiculite, foamed slag and similar expanded mineral materials,
incl. intermixtures thereof (excl. expanded clays)

Wrist-watches, whether or not incorporating a stop-watch facility, with hand
winding only (excl. of precious metal or of metal clad with precious metal)

Used upright pianos

Sleeping bags, whether or non-electrically heated

Powder puffs and pads for the application of cosmetics or toilet preparations



- civilization will stop in its tracks.

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Stocks are, according to the President, going to "boom".

And we have a direct quote on how nations will react (after "US stock markets have worst day since Covid over Trump tariffs").

Donald Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One today that tariffs on imported semiconductor chips and pharmaceuticals will be coming “soon”.

He added that the “reciprocal” tariffs he announced yesterday have put the US “in the drivers seat.”

“Every country is calling us. That’s the beauty of what we do,” he said. “If we would have asked these countries to do us a favor. They would have said no. Now they will do anything for us.”

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/liv ... ws-updates

And on the other side of the fence:

Meanwhile, in Canada, prime minister Mark Carney announced that Canada had introduced a 25% tariff on automobiles made in the United States.

“We take these measures reluctantly,” he said. “And we take them in ways that’s intended and will cause maximum impact in the United States and minimum impact here in Canada.”

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/liv ... ws-updates

... which is quite close to "Now they will do anything for us", presumably.

Give it time.

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This is perceptive:

Adam Tooze, an economic historian at Columbia University in the US, said there were “grotesque” policies for south-east Asian countries, including a 49% Cambodian tariff, and rates of 48% for Laos and 46% for Vietnam.

“This is not because they discriminate viciously against American exports, but because they are relatively poor. The US does not make a lot of goods that are relevant for them to import,” he said.

Vietnam in particular has become part of the global supply chain for major manufacturers, including US tech and clothing companies such as Nike, Intel, and Apple.

Lesotho, the tiny southern African country, one of the poorest in the world, is another odd example, facing a tariff of 50%. Among its main exports to the US are diamonds and clothes – demonstrating how links around the world for rare minerals are important for the US economy, but also how the US sought to boost development in African nations in recent years – with policies to encourage manufacturing by companies including Levi Strauss and Wrangler.

However, Trump, with his “America First” strategy has upended decades of attempts by successive US administrations to exert global economic influence, in an earthquake for the global economy.

“This is not serious trade policy or grand strategy,” said Tooze. “The boss hates trade deficits and his team of willing sycophants came up with a formula, however idiotic, that ticked the box.”

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... economists

I'm not convinced by "The boss hates trade deficits". I think he's torn between his public position of chasing small government as an objective, and wanting vast new supplies of government money in order to reduce taxes. What he's incapable of doing is seeing any value in what he's tearing down in the process.

Multinational US-founded corporations like Apple, and particularly the clothing supply, are incapable of producing good, cheap and US-made. Obviously this is true. Paying any American the peanut rate these multinational US-founded corporations pay abroad is just another way of leaving poor Americans destitute. So imports from those countries keep increasing - they're what America has ordered in bulk.

The profits don't go to those countries at all, that's the peanuts - the profits are skimmed by the American global manufacturers who pay minimal taxes on profit to anyone. All those tacky trainer boxes and "fashion brands" get-rich-quick celebs keep on promoting at ridiculous markups.

"This is not because they discriminate viciously against American exports". Perhaps it's time we all did. Perhaps it's past time but we ought to at least wake up and give it a go. Perhaps the American national delusion of exceptionalism is the root cause and needs finally burying. Some Americans are now and always have been pathologically destructive at every turn because of that self-imposed sickness.

Go for it, Mister President. Make America Great Again. USA, USA, USA.

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China has reacted to the new US tariff regime:

According to the Tariff Law of the People's Republic of China, the Customs Law of the People's Republic of China, the Foreign Trade Law of the People's Republic of China and other laws and regulations and the basic principles of international law, with the approval of the State Council, from 12:01 on April 10, 2025, additional tariffs will be imposed on imported goods originating from the United States. The relevant matters are as follows:

1. For all imported goods originating from the United States, a 34% tariff will be imposed on the basis of the current applicable tariff rate.

2. The current bonded and tax reduction and exemption policies remain unchanged, and the additional tariffs imposed this time will not be reduced or exempted.

3. For goods that have been shipped from the place of departure before 12:01 on April 10, 2025, and imported between 12:01 on April 10, 2025 and 24:00 on May 13, 2025, the additional tariffs stipulated in this announcement will not be imposed.

State Council Tariff Commission
April 4, 2025

(google translate from https://gss.mof.gov.cn/gzdt/zhengcefabu ... 961451.htm
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and "on the basis of the current applicable tariff rate" means on top of; the current applicable tariff rate being the starting point for the additional 34%.

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Having considered my wardrobe, my vanity unit and my accessories rail I have decided to stop buying from Lauryn Bosstick, Kylie Jenner and The Bag Snob. My reputation will no doubt suffer in the short term as I re-accessorize with Brut, Ponds Cold Cream and the Army Surplus on the Bristol waterfront. Marcruss, that's the name. You can get a lot into a webbing gas mask sling.

As for this trade war, I'm waiting to hear President Trump say "I didn't start this". I'll bump the thread when he does, though.

I'm wondering whether this is all potentially going to affect Tesla sales.

For those tempted to pile on may I reiterate the essential principle ForumGarden has maintained since its formative period: whoever is President and whatever they do, it is a non-negotiable requirement that everyone here respect the Office. That man is Commander in Chief, and don't you forget it.

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The real solution to the underlying problem is for Americans to build factories in America. That will admittedly make prices in the shops no different to the new high prices that will come as a result of the tariffs, because no American is ever going to work in a factory for a trivial $30 an hour like those third-world workers do. And it might take three years or so to get a US factory up and running, but that's okay. Just keep your current phone and laptop running for another three years and nothing will change much.

I predict what patriotic Americans will do with their unspent cash will be to buy lots and lots of soybean meals. I'm not sure what a soybean is or how you make it into a meal but there will be a lot in the shops. And in three years time they can build new smartphones and new laptops at new soldering stations in new factories. Except for the 4,000 who by then will have trained up as additional flight controllers, and the extra few dozen customs officers inspecting a trickle of container ships.

What I can't yet understand is why any foreign company would build a factory in America. I'd doubt the competence of an American factory worker using any tool smaller than a wrench, and a factory in America is a nothing but a hostage if governments fall out. Which they do, apparently. Who knew? I'm still trying to come to terms with an American factory being shut after the invasion of Ukraine just because it made vodka with Russian pretend-spelling on its label. Or perhaps it had been imported from Warrington-on-Volga. or maybe it was this:

“Some of the popular vodka brands consumers may think are Russian are not produced in Russia. There is not a lot of Russian-made vodka in the U.S. marketplace," said Lisa Hawkins​, with the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/ru ... -rcna17980

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Let me explore the issue.

The Federal government gathers a tariff on all designated imports in the US.

And according to President Trump, "We have hundreds of billions of dollars that’s pouring into our country on a monthly basis, it’s pouring. It’s already started because I put tariffs on and eventually it’s going to straighten out and our country will be solid and strong again."

So all these countries facing new double-digit tariffs on goods they export to the USA, or according to President Trump's display board facing double-digit tariffs on goods they import from the USA, can choose to import from any other country on earth and go back to pre-Trump tariff rates which haven't changed? World trade can go on just as before but exclude trade to and from the US? Well that's a no-brainer then.

And for all the goods being imported into the US from abroad at these new double-digit tariffs, pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into America on a monthly basis? Who's paying all those hundreds of billions of dollars a month? American consumers handing the tariff payments to the federal government?

As far as I can see, hell can freeze over before anyone outside of the US is going to be even slightly inconvenienced. Nobody outside of the US is paying any increase (except in China which has itself increased penalties on Chinese importers for bringing in goods from America). Every one of these hundreds of billions of dollars a month going to the federal government comes out of American pockets.

Long may it continue, it having been the majority of voting Americans who elected President Trump to his second term in the first place. There's a rough justice in the imposed additional taxes.

Today's news is "The United States will impose a 104% tariff on China from 12:01am ET (12:01pm China Standard Time) on Wednesday, a White House official said after Beijing did not lift its retaliatory tariffs on US goods by a noon Tuesday deadline set by Donald Trump". Which means every sale from China into the US will cost an American importer 104% on top of the agreed purchase price going to the Chinese supplier, with all of the 104% going into the Federal tariff income account. I suspect if you're a Chinese government keen to see America weakened this is like waking up on Christmas morning with everything you asked for under the tree. There's an entire planet out there to sell leftover goods, they could pass it on to American importers with a markup.

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We can bring you a few more lines from Trump's speech at a Republican Party dinner last night.

Speaking about trading partners wanting to negotiate deals with the US in the wake of tariffs, he said China - which has been hit with 104% tariffs - "want to make a deal...they just don't know how to get it started".

Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Cambodia and Taiwan are among key Asian countries who are hoping to speak with the Trump administration about tariffs, with some facing up to 49% on goods imported to the US.

"I'm telling you these countries are calling us up, kissing my ass," he told the audience. "They are dying to make a deal."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cp8vyy35g3mt

One gets the impression President Trump is addicted to the attention, which is no way to run a country. It also makes him appear vulnerable.

And while China and the EU have in the past ordered an entire third of all US exports, it would be salutary if they just plain stopped, switched off the focus, did their own thing and waited for him to leave the stage.

He's become very boring this term. A poor man's Jerry Sadowitz without the necessary skill.

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China's finance ministry has announced a further retaliatory 50% increase on the existing 34% tariff on all US goods coming into China, bringing its general import tariff for goods from America to 84%. This might be a "goad the maddened bull" response.

China’s move to impose 84% retaliatory tariffs against the United States is unfortunate and a losing proposition for Beijing, the US treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, said on Wednesday, as he urged China to “come to the table” with the Trump administration.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/liv ... dates-news

If China just sits silent and waits, Washington might realize where it's positioned itself. The queue of negotiators from whichever countries Levi buys jeans from, like Vietnam or Bangladesh, is scarcely going to make any difference at all to America backing out of this dead end it's invented for itself. The reason Levi manufacturers are queueing to be exceptions is that their product can't be sold anywhere outside America.

For reference, The EU, China, Japan, Vietnam, South Korea, Taiwan and India together send over half of America's imports. Queues from the "50 nations" mentioned by President Trump this week are somewhat irrelevant, it's these seven which will make the difference if Americans, corporate or personal, just stop buying from those sources because it costs too much now with the US tariff charges on top.

Meanwhile, on this side of the Atlantic,

The EU is set to finalise the first part of its response to Trump’s tariffs later today, with retaliatory levies against Trump’s original measures on steel and aluminium.

EU member states will vote on the final list on Wednesday, which targets €21bn of goods, down from €26bn originally foreseen, after talks with the EU’s 27 member states and many industry bodies. The list of potential targets facing mostly 25% retaliatory tariffs now ranges from almonds to yachts, diamonds and dental floss, soya beans and steel parts.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/liv ... op-of-blog

Though not, for some incomprehensible reason, Jack Daniels.

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The US treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, has been speaking to reporters outside the White House after Donald Trump announced he authorised a 90-day pause on tariffs on most countries and a China tariff raise to 125%.

Bessent said countries who did not retaliate against the US tariff announcement last week will be “rewarded”.

“Do not retaliate, and you will be rewarded,”

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/liv ... op-of-blog

I'd call that "Washington blinked", though schoolboys used to call it lily-livered chicken.

He can charge whatever he wants from American importers of Chinese goods, the people paying that tariff are American voters. I may have missed an announcement but I don't recall China asking for a meeting to discuss matters recently, and I'd lay odds they can outlast America in a staring contest. "White House’s press secretary, Karoline Leavitt: When you punch at the United States of America, President Trump is going to punch back harder"? You'd need to wait and see who's still standing when it stops. If China says come back next year and ask again, that would work.

As for this - 'Trump is asked the U-turn on his policy. The president said previously that there would be no pause in the tariffs, but today announced a 90-day pause. 'You have to have flexibility,' he says" - I find the word "flexibility" somewhat ambiguous. The more precise word might be "lies".

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I note the United States Office of Government Ethics website (oge.gov) is offline, having had its Director fired by the White House two months ago "as part of a purge of inspector generals and other government officials who investigate public corruption".

"OGE collects both confidential and public financial disclosures, as well as ethics agreements and other forms from government officials, from the president and vice president to high-ranking appointees and Cabinet nominees" - though not, for some reason, their adult children or in-laws. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-offi ... -director/

eta: well it's not up from through my internet supplier. I can see it on my phone though.

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The Chinese commerce ministry announced on Friday that it was raising the 84% tariffs on all US imports to 125%, again saying that China was ready to “fight to the end”. The statement also suggested it may be Beijing’s last move in the tit-for-tat tariff raises as “at the current tariff level, there is no market acceptance for US goods exported to China”.

“If the US continues to impose tariffs on Chinese goods exported to the US, China will ignore it,” it said, flagging that there were other countermeasures to come.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... her-losses

Though to be honest, I don't believe at 84% there was any market acceptance for US goods exported to China. But I'm sure President Xi listens to expert strategists and evaluates their advice, which I'm equally sure is a practice alien to President Trump. Perhaps China has a more respectful collegiate approach to government.

Anyway - current score, China: 125%, America: 145%, President Trump to serve.

I'm slightly puzzled by President Trump's notion of "respect", too. On the one hand he feels China has not displayed "respect" to America but at the same time he claims to have other nations (like India) lining up to "kiss my ass" which sounds anything but respectful. I'll restrain myself from suggesting the man is a repellent oaf and merely suggest he may wish to give the appearance of being a repellent oaf, but I'm not sure why he would wish to give that impression.

I also note that the present default 10% tariff being operated by America is more than double the pre-April rate of, for the most part, 0%-5%. It's like those magicians' sleight of hand where the hand is quicker than the eye. The rest of the world is not allowed to "retaliate" by matching that 10% figure. President Trump's brag that the US is coining it with the new rates sounds true, as is the Chinese accusation of "bullying".

At the moment the only reasonable response for the non-American part of the world is to trade among themselves and stop buying American goods until the farrago is played out.

I would also reiterate that every cent of tariff payments on imports into America, from China or anywhere else, is being paid solely by the American public to the American government. It's like a tax on buying foreign.

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Donald Trump’s presidential administration is exempting smartphones and computers from the 125% levies imposed on imports from China as well as other reciprocal tariffs.

The announcement was made late on Friday in a US Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) notice that said the devices would be excluded from the 10% global tariff that Trump recently imposed on most countries, along with the much heftier import tax on China.

The CBP’s notice follows concerns from tech companies that the price of electronics for US consumers might surge with many of them manufactured in China. The notice also contained exemptions for additional electronics and components, such as memory cards, solar cells and semiconductors.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... na-tariffs

That's outrageous. How is the US computer and laptop industry going to get back into the saddle if it's not protected from cheap foreign imports? How will it learn to make Smartphones ever? How will the tariff income expand if there are such glaring holes.

[Bryn Mawr]

Donald Trump’s presidential administration is exempting smartphones and computers from the 125% levies imposed on imports from China as well as other reciprocal tariffs.

The announcement was made late on Friday in a US Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) notice that said the devices would be excluded from the 10% global tariff that Trump recently imposed on most countries, along with the much heftier import tax on China.

The CBP’s notice follows concerns from tech companies that the price of electronics for US consumers might surge with many of them manufactured in China. The notice also contained exemptions for additional electronics and components, such as memory cards, solar cells and semiconductors.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... na-tariffs

That's outrageous. How is the US computer and laptop industry going to get back into the saddle if it's not protected from cheap foreign imports? How will it learn to make Smartphones ever? How will the tariff income expand if there are such glaring holes.

If it’s only just occurred to The Donald that almost all of the smartphones sold in the US are made in China then it is, indeed, outrageous - outrageous that he could ever be entrusted with running the US economy or allowed to sign a presidential order.

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If it’s only just occurred to The Donald that almost all of the smartphones sold in the US are made in China then it is, indeed, outrageous - outrageous that he could ever be entrusted with running the US economy or allowed to sign a presidential order.

And yet he's still going on about Apple is bringing iPhone manufacture back to the Homeland. Yet it's blatant that not one iPhone will be built from US-manufactured parts again, ever, and that Apple has never claimed it will. President Trump appears to believe that so long as he's said a thing's so, it's so. It must be a very silent place inside his head.

[Bryn Mawr]

If it’s only just occurred to The Donald that almost all of the smartphones sold in the US are made in China then it is, indeed, outrageous - outrageous that he could ever be entrusted with running the US economy or allowed to sign a presidential order.

And yet he's still going on about Apple is bringing iPhone manufacture back to the Homeland. Yet it's blatant that not one iPhone will be built from US-manufactured parts again, ever, and that Apple has never claimed it will. President Trump appears to believe that so long as he's said a thing's so, it's so. It must be a very silent place inside his head.

The problem with surrounding yourself with sycophants and sacking anyone who areas to speak out, you don’t get a sanity check until it all goes wrong.

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The problem with surrounding yourself with sycophants and sacking anyone who areas to speak out, you don’t get a sanity check until it all goes wrong.

Story of my life, that.

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Speaking to NBC’s Meet the Press on Sunday, the 75-year-old hedge fund manager said: “I think that right now we are at a decision-making point and very close to a recession. And I’m worried about something worse than a recession if this isn’t handled well.”

He went on to add: “A recession is two negative quarters of GDP and whether it goes slightly there. We always have those things. We have something that’s much more profound. We have a breaking down of the monetary order. We are going to change the monetary order because we cannot spend the amounts of money.”

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... -recession

I'd not be surprised at all. I think the present Administration is quite capable bringing the country to decades-long disintegration, and the voters who put them there will be entirely behind them in the process. It even appears to be the intention. I expect I'll express my appreciation at the outcome - it can only be better for the world than more of the same. Only an American Administration would be capable of that degree of harm to its own country.

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Good morning and welcome to our US politics coverage as China insisted that “no phone call” took place recently between President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart, after Donald Trump said he had spoken with the Chinese leader.

The world’s two biggest economies are locked in an escalating tit-for-tat trade battle triggered by Trump’s levies on Chinese goods, which have reached 145 percent on many products.

In an interview conducted on 22 April with Time magazine and published Friday, Trump insisted Chinese leader Xi called him despite Beijing denying there had been any contact between the two countries over their bitter trade dispute.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/liv ... ve-updates

What a fascinating outcome. The President of America is obviously incapable of outright lying, right? And equally the President of China is obviously incapable of outright lying? Both statements are true?

So the White House switchboard put a hoaxer pretending to be President Xi Jinping through to President Trump and he fell for it? It fits, nothing else does, what a goal. Straight in the back of the net.

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I find it pleasing that President Trump's intervention in Canada led the 20-point-deficit Liberal Party to electoral victory over the right-wing Conservatives, putting Canada firmly on a non-compliant track for the remainder of his White House administration. If he keeps shooting America in the foot, which seems overwhelmingly likely, we can mock from the sidelines and applaud the end result.

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Trump admin freaks out over mere suggestion Amazon was going to show tariff impact on prices
Revealing import taxes would be 'hostile and political' to Dear Leader
Thomas Claburn Wed 30 Apr 2025 // 00:13 UTC

https://www.theregister.com/2025/04/30/ ... /?td=rt-3a

Now that is just plain odd. I get told how much things are pre and post VAT (it was even on my cream tea yesterday), I'd get local city sales tax itemized, state sales tax and any other overcharge, I get discount itemized and delivery cost - of course I have to be told the tariff add-on. Why on earth is a tariff add-on any different?

There is is: 'White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt denounced Amazon after it was reported the tech giant intended to show how much President Trump's import tariffs would inflate the price of stuff sold through its internet souk. "This is a hostile and political act by Amazon," Leavitt said, noting she had just spoken to President Trump about the e-tailer's alleged plans.'

Yet another in a procession of deviant White House Press Secretaries. Likeitt or Leavitt.